That's not what I meant. Fruergaard/Thygesen and Haris/Pradipta would both need a win or a final in Hong Kong to pass the Thais but they meet in the semi-final; therefore only one of the two can possibly pass the Thais. That means it is mathematically impossible for more than 7 pairs to finish ahead of the Thais: Lee/Shin, two JPN pairs, Chen/Jia, Du/Li, Polii/Rahayu and either Fruergaard/Thygesen or Haris/Pradipta but not both. Ergo, they have clinched a Guangzhou spot.
Did you forget about Stoeva sisters? Just because they don't participate in the Asia tour doesn't mean they are out of contention. They are in the safe zone for now. FYI, Della/Rizky will join Hongkong Open, Syed Modi International, and Korea Masters. Just check it.
What I said didn't imply the Stoeva sisters were 'out of contention'. They are in the 'safe zone' as you say, but two more Super 100 wins will give them only 70,710 points. The Thais already have 71,740. Therefore the Bulgarians can qualify for Guangzhou but they can't finish ahead of the Thais. The maximum for Haris/Pradipta is 72,510 and for Fruergaard/Thygesen it's 73,700. Those two numbers could beat the Thais if the Thais stop playing but if either of them misses out on the Hong Kong final, they get 2780 points less and since they are in the same half in Hong Kong, at least one of those pairs must fail to reach the final.
1Yuki FUKUSHIMASayaka HIROTA 2Misaki MATSUTOMOAyaka TAKAHASHI 3Jongkolphan KITITHARAKULRawinda PRAJONGJAI 4Mayu MATSUMOTOWakana NAGAHARA 5Ayako SAKURAMOTOYukiko TAKAHATA 6CHEN QingchenJIA Yifan 7Greysia POLIIApriyani RAHAYU 8DU YueLI Yinhui 9Naoko FUKUMANKurumi YONAO Aside from the world champs, 3 Japanese pairs will be make way for others if this ranking holds.
I see your point now. But, I don't know when THA pairs are confirmed to be qualified. So, I will just put them in the list later. Anyway, I don't take the draw from the tournament into account. Who knows the draw may be changed drastically. The THA pairs will be qualified for sure if they play just one match irrespective of the draw. The points will be higher than both Della/Rizky and DEN pairs.
LD lost in R2 SaarLorLux Open. Doesn't look good for him. If CL gets good result in the remaining tournaments, there is a chance that CL will overlap LD in Race to Guangzhou. LD will face KM in the remaining tournaments. He has to find a way to beat KM. Considering that he lost to an Indian player who are ranked far below him, it is really difficult to beat KM.
Even if Lin Dan hadn't lost to a far lower or higher ranked player, it's still difficult to beat Momota. His defeat to me means much less than his winning lately, at least to me We'll see how he do against Momota.
Now that I realised Lin Dan has to play Momota in R1 of the home-based Fuzhou China Open WTS750 as well as the following HK Open WTS500, I'm not the least bit surprised that Lion Dan thought he could play his usual energy-saving controlled game most of the time at SaarLorLux and then fly all the way back and overcome jetlag for the much more important tournaments. Little did he bargain that his opponents would 'take advantage' of his situation and catch him off-guard, esp Dey in G1 when 3 gamepoints down sensing Lin Dan might ease off. Just saying. Well, Lin Dan paid the price, not so much for his second-best strategy here but more for not doing enough in earlier tournaments to result in the messy situation he's in now. Can't get any worse than that. Already eight R1 exits this year, two more on the cards the following weeks ? Difficult to be hopeful.
It is very hard for top players because low level tournaments like super 300 & 100 are concidered for selection for year end finals which are grand prix gold & grand prix tournaments before.
It is true those tournaments are considered but that doesn't necessarily mean it is difficult for top players. Basically, nearly everyone in the top 8 has at least some points from Super 300 and almost no one in the top 8 (about one per discipline) has points from Super 100. It's certainly harder to keep track but the top performers in the Super 500 and up are still the ones going to Guangzhou, for the most part. Maybe you could find the odd pair who didn't play a sub-500 and who won't go to Guangzhou, such as Ahmad and Natsir, but there certainly aren't many and that pair would likely qualify if they played Hong Kong and they definitely would have qualified if they had been able to play Japan and the 4 Super 500s that the BWF tried to force them to play. As it was, they only played INA Masters, Singapore, and 7 of the 8 compulsory events. It was missing those 'Superseries' that kept them out of the Finals, not skipping Super 300s.
The update from Badminton Talk upto the currently running Macau Open & SaarLorLux Open Round of 16 Spoiler: MS Spoiler: WS Spoiler: MD Spoiler: WD Spoiler: XD Some important changes so far: - Michelle Li going up into safe zone. - Marcus Ellis/Lauren Smith are in the safe zone.
Among the five categories, WD and WS are the most predictable one. The WD pairs who are outside of the safe zone that have the chance to qualify are not many. In WS category, 7 players who are in the safe zone are within the top 8. Currently, Michelle Li is in the safe zone. But, Beiwen Zhang and HBJ can snatch her spot if they perform good in the remaining tournaments.
To help you all to analyze, I will post the points given from the remaining tournaments. Fuzhou China Open - World Tour Super 750 R1 - 2660 R2 - 4320 QF - 6050 SF - 7700 F - 9350 Winner - 11000 Hongkong Open - World Tour Super 500 R1 - 2220 R2 - 3600 QF - 5040 SF - 6420 F - 7800 Winner - 9200 Syed Modi International and Korea Masters - World Tour Super 300 R1 - 1670 R2 - 2750 QF - 3850 SF - 4900 F - 5950 Winner - 7000 Starting from Fuzhou China Open, I will update the list of players who have qualified to World Tour Final. Just check it on the main post.
Tang/Tse are just one place lower than the safe zone. Their point is now 57400. Their maximum points possible is 77600. But, there are one pair outside of the safe zone that have higher maximum points possible. Praveen/Melati's maximum points possible will be 79200 (52000 + 11000 + 9200 + 7000). They participate in Korea Masters. Here is the list of pairs who can possibly qualified to World Tour Final after Fuzhou China Open. - Chan / Goh : qualified if they become the winner. (69800 + 11000 = 80800 > 79200) - Dechapol / Sapsiree : qualified if they become winner. (68590 + 11000 = 79590 > 79200) - Yuta / Arisa : qualified if they become winner. 67070 + 11000 = 78070 < 79200 (this scenario won't happen as there is only one winner) 67070 + 11000 = 78070 > 77550 (52000 + 9350 + 9200 + 7000) (assuming that Praveen/Melati are runner up in Fuzhou China Open) These three pairs and the other pairs may qualify earlier depends on Praveen/Melati or Tang/Tse's result.
Stoeva sisters' maximum points possible is 70710 (65210 + 5500) since they will only join Scottish Open. Lee/Shin's maximum points possible is 79200 (52070 + 11000 + 9200 + 7000). They join Fuzhou China Open, Hongkong Open, Korea Masters. Della/Rizki's maximum points possible is 72510 (49310 + 9200 + 7000 + 7000). They join Hongkong Open, Syed Modi International, Korea Masters. We can see that Stoeva sisters, who are in the safe zone, have lower maximum points possible than Lee/Shin and Della/Rizki. The latter two are both outside of the safe zone. The pairs are confirmed to be qualified if the pairs' points can exceeded either Lee/Shin or Della/Rizki's maximum possible points. Here is the list of pairs who can possibly qualified to World Tour Final after Fuzhou China Open. - Kititharakul / Prajongjai : just participating will make them qualified. (71740 + 2660 = 74400 > 72510) - Polii / Rahayu : qualified if they reach at least QF. (67300 + 6050 = 73350 > 72510) - Chen / Jia : qualified if they become the winner. (62530 + 11000 = 73530 > 72510)
Inoue/Kaneko's maximum points possible is 81990 (54790 + 11000 + 9200 + 7000). They join Fuzhou China Open, Hongkong Open, Syed Modi International. Fajar/Rian's maximum points possible is 83370 (49170 + 11000 + 9200 + 7000 + 7000). They join Fuzhou China Open, Hongkong Open, Syed Modi International, Korea Masters. Here is the list of pairs who can possibly qualified to World Tour Final after Fuzhou China Open. - Chen / Wang : qualified if they reach at least Final. (75530 + 9350 = 84880 > 83370) They may qualified earlier if Inoue/Kaneko or Fajar/Rian's results are worse than them.
