That's right: The USA always wins Olympics in recent years due to their success in SWIMMING and TRACK & FIELD. So far, they've already captured 16 medals in swimming - that's 16/29 medals and swimming is far from over yet. However, China has a great chance to become #2 this year as they have many more medal opportunities in the sports of badminton, table tennis, diving, gymnastics (individual apparatus), shooting, etc....
Right now though China has 5 less total medals but two more gold than USA. The rest of the nations are a ways off with Japan as a big suprise already surpassing their Sydney 2000 mark in golds (they have 8 now and only had 5 in all of Sydney). China's improvement can be gauged this way: They now have, after only 6 days of competition, 12 golds which is only 4 less than their total gold count in all of Atlanta '96!
My final prediction for total medal count:
1. USA
2. China
3. Russia
4. Australia
5. Germany
And if China doesn't get 2nd place in medal count, they should in gold.
China's overal rise in sports results at the world level is truly astounding considering that they've only been competing at the Olympics for 50 some years (much less than the Wester Sports Superpowers) and that many of their sports only started blossoming in the last 20-30 years.
If China can produce more elite athletes capable of medalling in swimming or track then they should be much closer to the USA in medals. They are already on that process though with the emergence of superstars such as Liu Xiang in 110m hurdles or Luo Xuejuan in the 100m swim events.
Look for China to aim for #1 in Beijing 2008.