Who are hot and who are not

[2cents]

Many times, when the news media wanted to emphasis that there was no clear favorite for the title, they usually said any seed or anyone from top 16 could win the title. They even quoted as Xia or other top players said similar thing. But look at the ranking, do you really think anyone in the top 16 can win a 5 star and above title, and no chance for lower ranked players. The following is the seed for World championship and also the top 16 in the ranking during July 24 –August 1:

 1	 	CHEN	Hong  	CHN	3,375.98
							
 2	 	JONASSEN	Kenneth  	DEN	2,706.00
							
 3	 	XIA	Xuanze  	CHN	2,532.33
							
 4	 	WONG	Choong Hann  	MAS	2,211.00
							
 5	 	BOESEN	Anders  	DEN	2,178.00
							
 6	 	KUNCORO	Sony Dwi  	INA	2,129.25
							
 7	 	HIDAYAT	Taufik  	INA	1,884.21
							
 8	 	SUSILO	Ronald  	SIN	1,872.00
							
 9	 	KALDAU	Niels Christian  	DEN	1,740.00
							
 10	 	YAMADA	Hidetaka  	JPN	1,723.45
							
 11	 	NG	Wei  	HKG	1,669.50
							
 12	 	SHON	Seung Mo  	KOR	1,644.00
							
 13	 	LEE	Hyun II  	KOR	1,641.58
							
 14	 	HARIYANTO *	Agus  	HKG	1,621.35
							
 15	 	WACHA	Przemyslaw  	POL	1,519.68
							
 16	 	JOPPIEN	Bjoern  	GER	1,419.15

Is any one from the above list can win the Championship? I don’t think so. I will definitely exclude Denmark’s Boesen, and Kaldau, Hong Kong’s Ng and Hariyanto, Japan’s Yamada, Poland’s Wacha, and Germany’s Joppien.

No one else outside this list could win the Championship? I don’t think so either. I will include China’s Bao, Lin, Chen Yu, Malaysia’s Lee TS, Hafiz, Roslin, and Denmark’s Gade. Therefore, I don’t think the ranking has much meanings.

Now players are fighting for ranking points for Olympics, so now the ranking (although ranking system has many pitfalls) caught many attentions.

The Olympics points have been collected since the World Championship. I am wondering why I cannot find the ranking for the Olympic anywhere on the internet. Therefore I calculated myself for selected players. The following players are chosen based on their performance:

World Championship Final 4: Xia, Wong, Bao, Shon
Singapore Open Fianl 4: Chen Hong, Chen Yu, Lin, Lee HI
Indonesia Open Final 4: Chen Hong, Lee HI, Wu, Hidayat

I noticed that it is not balanced here between nations:
6 Chinese (7 times): Xia, Chen Hong(2), Chen Yu, Lin, Bao, Wu
2 Koreans(3 times): Lee HI(2), Shon
1 from Malaysia: Wong
1 from Indonesia: Hidayat

Therefore, I add 6 more from Malaysia to the list:
Susilo, Roslin, Lee TS, Hafiz, Sony, Gade.

Here is my potential title holder list, or the seeds (or top 16) who can really win a title:

	           total	                  wc	singapore	       indonesia
ChenHong	1146	330	480	336
Lee HI	912	240	336	336
Bao	876	420	264	192
Shon	876	420	192	264
Xia	792	600	192	0
Lin Dan	768	240	336	192
Susilo	768	240	264	264
Wong	702	510	192	0
Roslin	642	330	120	192
Taufik	576	240	0	336
ChenYu	528	0	408	120
Sony	522	330	0	192
LeeTS	516	60	192	264
Hafiz	390	150	48	192
Wu	336	0	0	336
Gade	324	60	264	0

If you have anyone else who’s capable to win, let me know.

Note: Ng and Jonassen also did pretty good recently too, but I don’t think they are not good enough to grab a title.

Ng	624	240	120	264
Jonassen	450	330	120	0

 

[wl2172]

Wow...good job 2cents. I agree with you regarding the ranking issue. If based on current ranking list, almost half do not belong in the top 16. I hope the good ones will start performing and gaining points soon to reflect their true standing.

 

[kwun]

2cents, i tried to format your tables so the number shows up better. but still not a perfect. in future, you can try using the "code" vb code.

 

[2cents]

Thanks Kwun, it is much better than the un-coded one.
I am sorry that I am not a ranked poster yet

 

[Zax]

Rankings

Nice analysis, worth more than 2 cents actually

I think it is interesting to make an list of all olympic qualifiers after the malaysian open. Then we get a more complete picture that we can compare at that time with the updated world-rankinglist.

For us, it's nice that in a preolympic year everyone, including all top players, have to do their best for a good ranking position and for good tournament results.

- Mark.


p.s.

Does anyone know the exact rules for qualifying for the olympics? They are not completely objective, are they? I think there is room for some subjective judgements (like the requirement to show that one has 'maintained form'. What happens for example if Xia stays injured for a while, or if Ha Tae Kwon & Kim Dong Moon's ranking drops further due to Ha's injury?

 

[edwin]

Re: Rankings

Originally posted by Zax

Does anyone know the exact rules for qualifying for the olympics? They are not completely objective, are they? I think there is room for some subjective judgements (like the requirement to show that one has 'maintained form'. What happens for example if Xia stays injured for a while, or if Ha Tae Kwon & Kim Dong Moon's ranking drops further due to Ha's injury?

The exact rules for qualifying for the Olymipcs are found in
http://www.worldbadminton.net/Portal/documents/ogqualregs.PDF

 

[edwin]

Originally posted by 2cents
Note: Ng and Jonassen also did pretty good recently too, but I don’t think they are not good enough to grab a title.

Ng	624	240	120	264
Jonassen	450	330	120	0

Very interesting and useful analysis. Thank you very much. But I was wondering, if you don't think Ng or Jonassen are good enough to grab a title, why would Lee Tsuen Sing or Ronald Susilo included in the contender list?

 

[2cents]

Re: Re: Who are hot and who are not

Originally posted by edwin
Very interesting and useful analysis. Thank you very much. But I was wondering, if you don't think Ng or Jonassen are good enough to grab a title, why would Lee Tsuen Sing or Ronald Susilo included in the contender list?

You are right. One reason was that I wanted just 16 people to make it a complete seed list. Then the second reason was that I wrote down shuttlers from Malaysia first, then there was no space left for others. I admit that Ng and Jonassen are pretty good too. If I used the points stricted, then Peter Gade would have not been picked. In my personal opinion, it is not a surprise at all for him to grab a title.

Thanks