I have a feeling that TH will miss out on this . I don't think so. TH says he is retiring after the 2012 Olympic Games. I am sure he would be still maintaining his ranking as the Top 5 players when the Games qualification time is closed. .
if TH is still much better than the rest, I dont see why PBSI wont send him to OG2012. If TH=SDK=SS, then for sure TH will miss the boat.
If TH=SDK=SS, They say "Nothing is impossible". But I say your equation is just impossible. Do you seriously think the three of them will have the same number of ranking points? But I get your message. Assuming the three of them are in the top 16, who would PBSI select? Worse still if TH is ranked WR4 and SS and SDK ranked 5 & 6 respectively.
If TH is ranked WR4 and SS and SDK ranked 5 & 6 respectively...... . If TH is ranked WR4 and SS and SDK ranked 5 & 6 respectively, I am sure PBSI will select TH. Why? It's the better preparation leading to it that counts. For CBA, it would be different - since match-fixing is organised to ranked their players. .
If TH is under PBSI and not an independent player I think TH Will be selected with little or no opposition. But politics can interfere since TH is not under PBSI.
Politics can interfere since TH is not under PBSI . Yes, you could be correct that politics can interfere since TH is not under PBSI. In fact I wish that PBSI would interfere. Why? Because TH could then appeal to BWF/IOC(International Olympic Committee)'s sense of justice. And if BWF/IOC says that TH should be representing Indonesia (because of his higher ranking), then it would set free players thinking of going independent, and not be tied down to their National Associations. .
I really did not want to spell the word "politics" earlier, but thats exactly what i had in mind. There is also a posibility that Li Mao only bring his players under his care. Emm...interesting, just see what happens. Hopefully TH SDK and SS rank 2 3 and 4, that will be easy for everyone
Well Yoppy, it will become difficult if BWF changes the rules to allow only a max of 2 players from each country just as it restricts to 2 for doubles. Anybody knows whether the BWF rules on Olympics representation have changed or remained the same.
Qualification period and timeline: http://www.bwfbadminton.org/file_download.aspx?id=22711 Qualification period [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]The BWF ranking list of 3 May 2012 will be based on results during the period [/FONT][/FONT]2 May 2011- 29 April 2012 Qualifying Timeline [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]May 2 , 2011: [/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]Start of period for the BWF ranking list of 28 April 2011 [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]November 15 [/FONT][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]2011 [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]Deadline for the submission of requests for Tripartite Commission Invitation places by all NOCs [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]January 31 [/FONT][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]2012 [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]Tripartite Commission provisionally allocates one male and one female invitation places [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]April 29, 2012 [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]End of period for the BWF ranking list of May 3, 2012 [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]May 3, 2012 [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]BWF ranking list to be used to determine qualification [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]May 10, 2012 [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]BWF notifies Member Associations of qualified players / pairs [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]May 31, 2012 [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]Member Associations / NOCs confirm their selection of qualified players / pairs to BWF [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]June 11, 2012 [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]Reallocation of places where an NOC has not confirmed the entry of a player / pair qualified in the list of May 10, 2012 [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]June 15, 2012 [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]BWF notifies Member Associations of further qualified players / pairs [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]June 29, 2012 [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]Reallocation of places where an NOC has not confirmed the entry of a player / pair qualified in the list of June 11,2012 [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]April – July 2012 [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]The Tripartite Commission confirms, in writing, the allocation of the Invitation [/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]paces to the NOCs [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]July TBC, 2012 [/FONT][/FONT] [FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic][FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]Deadline for LOCOG to receive entry forms submitted by NOCs [/FONT][/FONT]
Thanks Cobalt for highlighting to us the current BWF rules on London Olympics 2012 Qualification, especially on the ranking eligibility. If TH, SS and SDK are in the top 4, no dispute as all will go. What is "Tripartite Commission Places"? Which three parties are involved? Is this new?
Here's what I could find about the Tripartite Commission... source: http://www.bl.uk/sportandsociety/exploresocsci/politics/articles/iocdevelopment.pdf Here is the relevant section: The Solidarity Committee was crucial to improving relationships between these three powerful groups, and served as a predecessor to the Tripartite Commission. Originally a proposal by Count Jean de Beaumont (an IOC member and Olympic athlete in the 1924 games) to help struggling NOCs, the International Olympic Aid Committee was formed in 1962, becoming an official IOC commission in 1968. This committee merged with one of a similar purpose created by Permanent General Assembly of NOCs, becoming the Solidarity Committee in 1971. The Committee’s main remit was relations of the NOCs with the IOC. ASSIMILATION (1970s- 1990s) [FONT=Syntax,Syntax][FONT=Syntax,Syntax]A further step towards sharing of responsibilities was taken two years later, in 1973, by the new IOC president, Lord Killanin. Killanin proposed the 1973 Varna Congress, as a forum for discussion between the IOC, NOCs and IFs, and it was the first Congress to be held in 43 years. He proposed a Tripartite Commission, where topics of mutual interest (such as events scheduling and programmes) could be discussed. However the commission awaited the IOC’s approval and with Killanin as self-appointed chairman, the powers remained unequal. [/FONT] ===== Note: NOC = National Olympics Council (of each individual country) What I could understand is that the Tripartite Comm. is a sort of arbitration committee to smooth over unusual issues etc. [/FONT]
But how realistic do you think that is? Let's take a look at the top players. LCW is as good as guaranteed a place in the top 4 Lin Dan will be there (as long as he qualifies! ) Taufik will be there (as long as he doesn't come down with injuries) Peter Gade is good for the next 5 years, the way he is playing! Chen Long is catching up. Chen Jin is a good bet if he recovers his health. Kenichi Tago is the floater: you can never tell what he may be capable of. Boonsak and TMN are almost guaranteed a place in the top 10. With all this, Simon stands an almost guaranteed chance of remaining in the top 16 (as does Taufik) But what of Sony, realistically? Alamsyah Yunus has a good chance of advancing in the rankings from his present 18 position, but where can he go? Top 4? Probably not. Dino (sorry couldn't resist ) may possibly make the cut as well. Remember, every player from every country (the Danes and Koreans especially,) will be doing everything possible to get 2 players into the top 16, so they will alll be playing a lot of games over the next 15 months. SDK and SS will need to maintain very good physical shape to remain there in contention.
Although not impossible TH SS and another MS rank in the top 4, realistically INA can only send 2 player, so who to send? TH + SS or SS + XXX ??? Where XXX can be SDK, Hayom (or Dino as cobalt like to call him ) or Alamsyah Yunus?? Just realised this thread has moved so far from the topic, someone need to create a new thread (as i think this topic is interesting)
I agree realistically it will be difficult for INA to have 3 MS players represented in London Olympics 2012. It will also be difficult for even CHN to do so basing on current rankings and performance. However we have to wait till May to find out who will start amassing BWF ranking points till April 2012 during the qualifying period as indicated in colbalt's post #90: "Qualification Period (QP) The BWF ranking list of 3 May 2012 will be based on results during the period 2 May 2011- 29 April 2012 ." I would assume that all players will start with "0" points immmediately before the QP and will start accumulating during the QP. In this sense, everybody has an equal chance to qualify. There is transparency and it is entirely based on meritocracy, except for selections by the Host Country and the Tripartite Commission as indicated in colbalt's subsequent post. So players who were injured and have recovered by then will still be able to qualify and score high ranking points. This will be important to players like SDK, CJ (whom I understand from this forum is not in the best of health now) and even the flu-adverse LD. Hopefully those who are well and fit now will continue to maintain their good condition till the end of the qualifying period and beyond during the actual Olympics itself. Indeed one would expect LCW, TH, LD, and PG to remain in the top echelon unless injury and bad luck prevented them from doing so, such that no one country would be able to dominate with 3 MS players being represented. Or will 3 CHN MS players be able to shock us again by gatecrashing into the top 4 at the last minute as they have done so in Beijing Olympics 2008? Or this time around, will INA be able to snatch the honour with TH, SS, SDK and Dino? What about other countries - no way?
SDK is currently at 30 in the world rankings. He will need to get pretty consistent results of 1 or 2 in many tournaments, to be able to get close to the top 4. Can he achieve the sort of consistency required to beat the top 10 players again and again? That is a question only he can answer with his deeds. Simon has the best possible chance of taking over the mantle from Taufik (hopefully, not displacing him in the process... but politics... ) As for the rest like Alamsyeh, Dino, Tommy... I think Li Mao will have to preform some miracles. Even he cannot do it alone. Eventually, only the players themselves can do it. They will need to show the heart of true champions. Like the spirit of true champions of Indonesia 10 or 15 or 20 years ago. Time will tell.
IMO Its not impossible for CHN and INA in MS. Remember the points will be reset from 2nd May. So players like TH SS SDK and the rest of INA players, and LD CJ CL BCL from CHN all have equal opportunity to shine during the period. OK lets assume LCW will maintain number 1 ranking, so although very difficult to fill the 2nd to 4th spot considering competition from the likes of PG, Boonsak, PSH, KT, TMN, etc with a bit of luck in the draw they still can make it.
