Hardest Match Statistically

M

minions

Regular Member
I am planning to make the statistics for every top tier tournaments. One of the statistic is about the hardest match. But, I am struggling how should I define the hardest match statistically wise.

I personally think that the rubber games match is harder than the straight games match. I want to determine the hardest match from the scorelines. Any ideas of how should I determine?

I have three cases to be examined. The sample is from Malaysia Masters 2019.

Inoue/Kaneko vs Wahyu/Ade 19-21 30-29 21-18
Total scoreline : 70-68 (+2)

Nishimoto vs Momota 21-15 14-21 22-20
Total scoreline : 57-56 (+1)

Srikanth vs Wong Wing Ki 23-21 8-21 21-18
Total scoreline : 52-60 (-8)

The first case has the most points scored. All of the games were tight. As for the third case, the winner produced less score than the loser. How should I look at these?
 
I would go for the difference in points for each set :
2-1-3 for the first match avg is 2
6-7-2 AVG is 5
2-13-3 AVG is 6
The lower the average the hardest.
However this lacks a way to emphasis on three sets matchs.
 
SimonCarter said:
I would go for the difference in points for each set :
2-1-3 for the first match avg is 2
6-7-2 AVG is 5
2-13-3 AVG is 6
The lower the average the hardest.
However this lacks a way to emphasis on three sets matchs.
Click to expand...
Looks like I can agree with your statement. It should be noted that the average point difference in straight game match can't be lower than 2, unless one or both games end up with the score 30-29.
 
I would also go for the first match . The 30-29 game has made a huge gap among all the matches . Averagevise also , it seems to be the most hardest match .
 
This is a fun idea and let's brainstorm.
I believe rubber games are usally harder than straight games, but you also have straight games that do like 22-20; 23-21 or even tighter, so some extreme tight games should also be considered.

If we look at the tournamentsoftware site following data is readily available for a given match:
Duration of play
Most consecutive points
Game points (how many game points opporunities)
Total points played
Total points won (for each side)
Plot of scoring sequence for each side

Then look at the sample case that you selected:
Inoue/Kaneko vs Wahyu/Ade - duration 1:25 - 19-21 30-29 21-18 (https://bwf.tournamentsoftware.com/...36FF7F1-4E8D-470A-BE0B-4E3BA6DF7521&match=187)
In game 1, the most consecutive poitns scored by I/K & W/A respectively are 3 - 4; Game 2, most consecutive points are 4 - 6 while game points are 11 - 2, which indicates that I/K have been edging the lead but just couldn't close the game with W/A chasing the tails. Game 3, most consecutive points are 3 - 4 while game points were 4 - 0 (I/K reached 20 - 15 but only closed game at 21 - 18).
I think game 2 was a tough game, but if you look the graphs, I/K have pretty much been taken the lead throughout the whole set.

So the factors apart from score lines could also consider consecutive points taken (the smaller the differences the tighter the games), the change of leads, taking the game(s) while losing from deficit.
What would also be nice but not available at the website is rally lengths.

Also check the below matches out in the same tournament and see what your thoughts are :)
https://bwf.tournamentsoftware.com/...36FF7F1-4E8D-470A-BE0B-4E3BA6DF7521&match=256
https://bwf.tournamentsoftware.com/...36FF7F1-4E8D-470A-BE0B-4E3BA6DF7521&match=333
https://bwf.tournamentsoftware.com/...36FF7F1-4E8D-470A-BE0B-4E3BA6DF7521&match=197
 
LewLewZ said:
This is a fun idea and let's brainstorm.
I believe rubber games are usally harder than straight games, but you also have straight games that do like 22-20; 23-21 or even tighter, so some extreme tight games should also be considered.

If we look at the tournamentsoftware site following data is readily available for a given match:
Duration of play
Most consecutive points
Game points (how many game points opporunities)
Total points played
Total points won (for each side)
Plot of scoring sequence for each side

Then look at the sample case that you selected:
Inoue/Kaneko vs Wahyu/Ade - duration 1:25 - 19-21 30-29 21-18 (https://bwf.tournamentsoftware.com/...36FF7F1-4E8D-470A-BE0B-4E3BA6DF7521&match=187)
In game 1, the most consecutive poitns scored by I/K & W/A respectively are 3 - 4; Game 2, most consecutive points are 4 - 6 while game points are 11 - 2, which indicates that I/K have been edging the lead but just couldn't close the game with W/A chasing the tails. Game 3, most consecutive points are 3 - 4 while game points were 4 - 0 (I/K reached 20 - 15 but only closed game at 21 - 18).
I think game 2 was a tough game, but if you look the graphs, I/K have pretty much been taken the lead throughout the whole set.

So the factors apart from score lines could also consider consecutive points taken (the smaller the differences the tighter the games), the change of leads, taking the game(s) while losing from deficit.
What would also be nice but not available at the website is rally lengths.

Also check the below matches out in the same tournament and see what your thoughts are :)
https://bwf.tournamentsoftware.com/...36FF7F1-4E8D-470A-BE0B-4E3BA6DF7521&match=256
https://bwf.tournamentsoftware.com/...36FF7F1-4E8D-470A-BE0B-4E3BA6DF7521&match=333
https://bwf.tournamentsoftware.com/...36FF7F1-4E8D-470A-BE0B-4E3BA6DF7521&match=197
Click to expand...
I think the second and the third link are the more harder match than the first link. I still think that the Inoue/Kaneko vs Wahyu/Ade match is harder because of total points played.
 
Don't the players performance and rallies length count too?
Sometimes the scoreline no matter how close it looks, but in reality it was only accumulation of unforced errors from either party.
 
yuquall said:
Don't the players performance and rallies length count too?
Sometimes the scoreline no matter how close it looks, but in reality it was only accumulation of unforced errors from either party.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, the unforced error is not recorded into statistics. Even people can have different view about unforced error.
 
minions said:
Unfortunately, the unforced error is not recorded into statistics. Even people can have different view about unforced error.
Click to expand...
Unforced errors like service errors, hitting wide, long, to the net without being forced. Simple mistakes just after a few rally shots. Just saying maybe looking at the scoreline alone would be quite hard to judge how hard the match was.

Sometimes players can deliberately making errors or just taking it easy because they had a very big lead (leading 19- or 20-), giving free extra points to the opponent before closing the game within 10 secs.

I know that Ade/Wahyu vs Inoue/Kaneko match was very intense because I watched it.
 
This all is happening because stats are not always true . One cannot know about the whole game just by watching scoreline. It is possible to know about the most hardest or easiest match just by watching it thoroughly .
 
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