Day 3: 30/4 TC/UC

[ctjcad]

chandra/sigit vs tony/bach.... revenge !!!!!

hehe, are you expecting USA to beat Japan in the 1st Round match on Monday??...and sorry, no Bach this time...only Tony...

Just came on board, and noticed INA team beat KOR, doing so with their 2nd & 3rd MS, and 2nd MD..A good early sign i believe, esp. as i didn't expect Simon Santoso to step up and get the clinching point for INA and win in straight sets..And in the process INA team gets a day to rest and prepare for the QF round..

 

[ctjcad]

Assuming INA advanced to SF, it will be really tough for them against CHN..

I personally think it's not wise to field Candra/Sigit in the match against China, after watching today's match. Cai/Fu will simply throw all smashes at them! I hope PBSI official fields Luluk/Alvent and Markis/Hendra. Markis/Hendra has about 55% chance of winning against either Zheng Bo/Xie Zhongbo or Guo Zhendong/Xie Zhongbo. As for Cai/Fu....Luluk/Alvent will definitely give a better fight than Candra/Sigit.

I kinda concur also..Candra's and Sigit's game are too defensive, relying on counter-attack, esp. playing against Fu/Cai..I watched their recent match last yr. in CHN w/the the 21pt. and seemed like it doesn't really fit Candra/Sigit's style..

Looking at the matches today, here's my prediction:
Lin Dan vs Taufik Hidayat (55-45) -- Lin Dan is also struggling a lot with the new system..surprisingly. Both his victories over Bjorn Joppien and Chetan Anand were unconvincing. But, he still holds an advantage over Taufik.

It could go either way, but with TH really struggling with his injured back, that could be a downside..I may be wrong, but if i was the coach, I personally would not play him..Rather put a healthy player in there to compete..

Fu Haifeng/Cai Yun vs Luluk Hadiyanto/Alvent Yulianto (55-45) -- Fu/Cai has relatively untroubled campaign so far....and Luluk/Alvent will represent their first real test. Luluk/Alvent needs to be sharper and more initiative in their attack in order to win.

I think the ratio would be even greater for CHN- Maybe 60-40 or even 65-35..I would think Candra/Sigit will be featured as 1st MD...But if Luluk/Alven is featured, they have to get rid of their mental struggle esp. playing in clutch and pressure situation..

Bao Chunlai vs Sony Dwi Kuncoro (50-50) -- this is the chance for INA to nick the point if Bao is fielded. First, he has just recovered from his injury and was troubled by Roman Spitko in the first set today. Second, Sony has more playing hours and he has also beaten Shon Sheung Mo today...a real confidence booster for Sony.

looking at the stat from his win over SSM, i think Sony has finally reap his several months of intensive physical traininig with Tahir Djide. If he can maintain his physical condition the rest of the way, IMO, he WILL BE THE KEY for INA..

Guo Zhendong (or Zheng Bo)/Xie Zhongbo vs Markis Kido/Hendra Setiawan (45-55) -- this is also the pt that INA MUST GET at any cost if the match isn't over by now. They absolutely hold the advantage over any combination China will field.

I think this is 50-50. The INA young pair does not have much experience and it could cost them..

Chen Jin (or Xia Xuanze) vs Simon Santoso (60-40) -- can Chen Jin hold the burden of a must win if the score is tied at 2-2? He still has not had the big-event experience and its likely Li Yongbo will field the old guard (Xia) to secure the final pt. Anyway, they should win against Simon, although I am still hoping Simon could yet again surprise me...

This will be INA's achilles heel. If they go in with a 2-2 score, this will be the crucial point. Who will have the "looser" mentality??..Who will have less jitter??..

All in all, i still feel CHN will win against INA, esp. considering all the misc. injuries plagueing the INA squad. A win against CHN will be a real miracle...

 

[ctjcad]

On a side note unrelated to Thomas Cup, Team INA has won another 2 titles in the Thailand Satellite. Tommy Sugiarto (Icuk's son) and Lingga/Yulianti won their second titles after their success in the Jakarta Satellite earlier in the month. Tommy beat his teammate Alamsyah Yunus in the final and have beaten Agus Hariyanto and Ronald Susilo en-route to the final. Both players beat Korea's junior players (Lee Cheol Ho and Hong Seung Ki) in the semi-finals. Hmm...so finally bright hopes appear for Team Indonesia's MS?

hmm, is Tommy back in Pelatnas?. Read that, at the recent Jakarta Satellite, some PBSI officials tried to pursuade him to come back to Pelatnas. Or is he playing on his own term??..

Meanwhile, Lingga/Yulianti beat Thai's no 2 pair Songphon/Kulchala...we seem to have pretty good cover in XD now.

hmm, IMO, still early to tell..they have to perform and give satisfactory results *consistently* before they can be INA's "XD cover"..

 

[ctjcad]

Correction: INA will play the winner between Japan and USA in the quarter-final. Hmm...can USA win?

hehehe, for all the heroics Tony Gunawan has brought, i say....no....even if Tony forces himself and plays 2nd or 3rd MS along with MD...hehee
If USA pulls off a miracle, then they should disband the Japanese Thomas Cup team and trade the team jerseys with team USA, right there and then in front of their home crowd..hehehe..oh, maybe not..

 

[badMania]

hmm, is Tommy back in Pelatnas?. Read that, at the recent Jakarta Satellite, some PBSI officials tried to pursuade him to come back to Pelatnas. Or is he playing on his own term??..

hmm, IMO, still early to tell..they have to perform and give satisfactory results *consistently* before they can be INA's "XD cover"..

PBSI officials are still courting him to return to Pelatnas, although the boy (and his father) has basically said that he will return IFF he's given opportunities to compete in tournaments overseas.

Yes, he's paying his own tickets to compete in Vietnam and Thailand Satellite...and it's pretty rewarding since he came back with a title in Thailand a quarter-final place in Vietnam last week. He lost to the eventual champion, Nguyen Tien Minh.

Lingga/Yulianti's performance in Thailand were very good IMHO. They beat Jung Tae Kuk/Kim Min Jung in the semi-final (which I have predicted them to lose) and then the Thai's second pair of Songphon Anukritayawan/Kulchala Voravitchitchaikul in the final. We have heard of the Thai pair's name quite many times last year as they have played Nova/Butet at least 2 times (in the Indonesian Open and SEA Games semi-finals). So, beating this pair is also a tremendous achievement...for a newly formed pair such as Lingga/Yulianti.

 

[ctjcad]

PBSI officials are still courting him to return to Pelatnas, although the boy (and his father) has basically said that he will return IFF he's given opportunities to compete in tournaments overseas.

A bit off topic, hope you guys won't mind..
It's really sad though, this kind of thing has to happen..Not only to Tommy but to other newer members of Pelatnas who left Pelatnas..
After reading your info, my guess is, Tommy will go back to Pelatnas. But when?? i don't know..Cos the reason given by Icuk/Tommy sounds like a very conditional reason, so there's still a possibility.
IMO, i may be totally wrong, but I think it has a little bit to do with last yr's or 2 yr's ago incident between Taufik and Icuk. After the meeting(after the incident between Taufik and Icuk) with Bang Suti(Yos)o, i think Icuk felt the Jakarta's gov. sided more with Taufik. Esp. considering now that Taufik's father in law is the almighty power hand of KONI and probably very close with Bang Yos..hehehe
I think that is one of the real reason why Icuk "resign", instead of his other reason(s)..And with him resigning, and his son Tommy still in Pelatnas, who knows what the future will bring...

Another way Tommy will go back to Pelatnas soon, is if Icuk and Taufik get together and amend their situation and move on(or something similar to that). Cos no matter what, Taufik will stay in Pelatnas for another yr. or so and of course PBSI will not let him go just like that..Also, I don't know abt their relationship, but imagine Taufik seeing Tommy every single day there and without his father around..
Or unless Taufik calls it quit early, then maybe PBSI will have a chance to bring back Tommy..
But I would guess, once Taufik decides to call it a career, then Tommy will probably go back and train with them. Albeit it'll be a bit "late" and he'll be out of Pelatnas for quite some time..hmm..

 

[badMania]

It could go either way, but with TH really struggling with his injured back, that could be a downside..I may be wrong, but if i was the coach, I personally would not play him..Rather put a healthy player in there to compete..


I think the ratio would be even greater for CHN- Maybe 60-40 or even 65-35..I would think Candra/Sigit will be featured as 1st MD...But if Luluk/Alven is featured, they have to get rid of their mental struggle esp. playing in clutch and pressure situation..

I think this is 50-50. The INA young pair does not have much experience and it could cost them..

This will be INA's achilles heel. If they go in with a 2-2 score, this will be the crucial point. Who will have the "looser" mentality??..Who will have less jitter??..

As someone has also mentioned above, I will still think putting Taufik in the team gives INA more chance of winning the overall tie. Putting Sony, Simon, and Markus will simply gift China 3 easy pts.

The key will be in first doubles....if INA loses it, then it will be gone. I guess Rudy will wait for tomorrow to see if he's gonna field Candra/Sigit. I personally think its definitely a riskier choice...

If Taufik does not win in the first single (and PBSI official also somehow has factored in this fact), then Sony HAVE TO WIN the second singles...playing against Chen Hong or Bao Chunlai.

As for Markis/Hendra, I believe they are better than Guo/Xie or Zheng/Xie, rankingwise and experience wise. The second doubles simply HAVE TO WIN!

I have a feeling that Simon somehow would feature in the semi-finals...

 

[badMania]

Hmm...after looking at the group matches so far, no doubt, Team Indonesia has the important victory over one of the seeded team, Korea. The other teams simply cruised through the group stages, with jitters affecting some of their top players.

IMHO, the victory against Korea carry a lot of values than originally expected because it's a real morale-booster to the underrated players such as Sony and Simon. This will help them in their expected semi-final clash against the perceivedly better Chinese opponents.

Today's Jawa Post has an article of how Simon screamed hysterically in delight after his victory over Park Sung Hwan. This is the kinda thing that I mean...psychological effect. He mentioned that he was playing without burden. Sony also added that Taufik and Candra/Sigit's unexpected loss did not really add to his burden of having to win his tie against Shon (whom have beaten him in the Olympics semi-final in 2004). That is good! Can you imagine Bao Chunlai or Chen Hong having to win after both Lin and Fu/Cai loses?

So, the response from players and officials have yet again suggested that team INA really wanted to win the group and avoid Malaysia in the quarter-final. Hopefully, the players will have similar attitude when playing China. No doubt abt it, China is expected to win, but, expect a surprise or two. The tie will shift dramatically into INA's favor if Lin Dan loses. He has somehow lost his aura of invisibility when playing the 21-pts system.

 

[badMania]

Team China's "jitters":
Lin Dan's both matches to Chetand Anand and Bjorn Joppien -- losing 1 set to the fastly improving Indian players and a close 22-20 win in the first set against Bjorn.

Bao Chunlai's match against Roman Spitko -- again, a close 22-20 win in the first set.

Chen Jin's match against "unknown" Marcel Reuter -- he actually loses a set!

 

[rhinovinda]

I believe TH will beat LD this time in SF if nothing happened....GOnna be tight match. Looking at current situation, INA will definitely win back the cup.

 

[badMania]

And you know, even if those comments may sound a bit defeatist, they are true. If Malaysia do indeed beat Denmark, then it is an overachievement, for me and for most people who know badminton (yes, even Li Yongbo says it ). But if Malaysia were to lose, I will only be happy if we go down fighting like hell. (Somehow, I am a bit worried if it goes all the way to 3rd singles. Hafiz is clearly the better but he is known to crumble at slightest pressure.)

Agree. I think Malaysia has a higher chance of beating China than Denmark. Denmark's two strong doubles have almost certainly guaranteed 2 pts for them, unless CCM/KKK and CTF/LWW perform to their best. If Denmark really wins both doubles, they need a single pt from either singles.

LCW vs PG is still 50-50. Both are performing well and it all depends on their performance and mental burden on that day.

WCH vs KJ is also 50-50. Originally, I think WCH has an edge, however, his jitters as reported by the newspaper and KJ's recent good performance in the European championships have tipped the scale in favor of KJ. So, its also a difficult one to predict.

Hafiz vs Niels Christian Kaldau -- 55-45 in favor of Malaysians. Now, this is the pt to win for Malaysia if the tie is 2-2.

So, IMHO, Malaysia can win from all singles. If Denmark is to win, either PG or KJ has to carry the burden of having to win their match.

 

[badMania]

I believe TH will beat LD this time in SF if nothing happened....GOnna be tight match. Looking at current situation, INA will definitely win back the cup.

Wow..u are overly optimistic. As an Indonesian myself, I am pretty satisfied by yesterday's big win over Korea. The target is to reach semi-final and the team will have fulfilled that if they win the quarter-final tomorrow. Any other progress will be a plus.

 

[badMania]

An article from the Star

SIMON Santoso rose to the occasion to deliver the winning point for Indonesia in the decisive third singles match of their final Group B Thomas Cup Finals tie against South Korea at the Sendai Gymnasium yesterday.
The young Simon, who is ranked 28th in the world, punched his fists after scoring a 21-18, 21-16 victory over the higher ranked Park Sung-hyun.
The 3-2 victory for Indonesia gave them the top spot in the group and they will go into the same half of the draw as defending champions and top seeds China.
South Korea will have to earn a quarter-final meeting with Malaysia in a playoff against Germany today.
“I have made amends for the failure in Jakarta two years ago,” said the 20-year-old Simon, who failed to win the decisive third singles match in the semi-finals against Denmark in 2004. “I have proved my worth. From now, I want to keep on winning for Indonesia.”

Yesterday, Indonesia recovered from the brink of defeat after their number one singles players Taufik Hidayat and the top ranked pair of Candra Wijaya-Sigit Budiarto lost the first two matches. Taufik was beaten 21-16, 10-21, 8-21 by Lee Hyun-il and Candra-Sigit fell to a 16-21, 14-21 defeat by the scratch combination of Jung Jae-sung-Lee Yong-dae.

Sony Dwi Kuncoro rescued the tie for Indonesia, beating 2004 Athens Olympics silver medallist and world number 13 Shon Seung-mo 21-9, 21-15. “I did not feel the burden at all. I told myself to believe in my ability and that lifted my spirits to go hard against Seung-mo. Today, I was more aggressive and reacted faster,” said Sony, who is ranked 20th in the world.


The second-ranked Indonesia pair of Luluk Hadiyanto-Alven Yulianto levelled the tie, beating Hwang Ji-man-Han Sang Hoon 22-24, 21-17, 21-14.
Both pairs produced a nail-biting first game before the Koreans edged Luluk-Alven. But the Indonesians came back strongly to win the next two games.
“We were too eager to win the first game and lost control of the proceedings.
“We managed to read the placing shots at the front court by the Koreans in the second and third games,” said Alven.
It was left to Simon to seal the tie for Indonesia and he duly delivered. Indonesia are expected to have a stroll into the semi-finals. In Wednesday’s quarter-finals, they will face the winners of today's playoff tie between Japan and the United States.

 

[ctjcad]

The tie will shift dramatically into INA's favor if Lin Dan loses. He has somehow lost his aura of invisibility when playing the 21-pts system.

hehe, i know it's typo, but you meant invincibility...hmm, but do you think he IS that invincible even without the 21-pt system??..

 

[badMania]

hehe, i know it's typo, but you meant invincibility...hmm, but do you think he IS that invincible even without the 21-pt system??..

Oopps...yeah...write too fast to realise. Somehow, I think Lin Dan plays bettern in the 15-pts system. If he plays normally, only Taufik and perhaps LCW have the chance of beating him.