Winning percentages for the top 8

Discussion in 'Thomas Cup / Uber Cup 2014' started by AlanY, Dec 16, 2013.

  1. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    Further to the qualification listings
    http://www.badmintoncentral.com/for...-2014-Thomas-Uber-Cups-Qualification-Seedings

    I’ve estimated/evaluated the winning percentages for the top 8 countries against each other based on their players’ individual ranking.
    Code:
    [TABLE="width: 500"]
    [TR]
    [TD][TABLE="class: grid, width: 605"]
    [TR]
    [TD]Thomas Cup[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]Indonesia[/TD]
    [TD]Malaysia[/TD]
    [TD]China[/TD]
    [TD]Japan[/TD]
    [TD]Denmark[/TD]
    [TD]Korea[/TD]
    [TD]Thailand[/TD]
    [TD]Chinese Taipei[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Indonesia[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]70.9%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]60.5%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]73.4%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]85.7%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]91.3%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]91.1%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]96.7%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Malaysia[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]43.2%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]44.4%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]71.6%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]89.4%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]83.8%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]92.9%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]China[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]56.5%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]68.5%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]86.5%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]86.1%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]89.7%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Japan[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]77.4%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]85.4%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]85.7%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]92.6%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Denmark[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]81.3%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]73.3%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]79.5%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Korea[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]23.7%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]55.7%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Thailand[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]79.1%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Chinese Taipei[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    
    Code:
    [TABLE="width: 500"]
    [TR]
    [TD][TABLE="class: grid, width: 605"]
    [TR]
    [TD]Uber Cup[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]China[/TD]
    [TD]Thailand[/TD]
    [TD]Japan[/TD]
    [TD]Korea[/TD]
    [TD]Indonesia[/TD]
    [TD]Denmark[/TD]
    [TD]Chinese Taipei[/TD]
    [TD]India[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]China[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]91.1%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]87.5%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]85.8%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]97.2%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]98.7%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]99.2%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]98.8%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Thailand[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]40.0%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]52.3%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]76.3%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]90.7%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]96.9%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]98.0%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Japan[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]46.7%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]86.3%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]98.4%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]98.2%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]95.3%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Korea[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]67.2%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]85.0%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]84.7%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]84.0%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Indonesia[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]98.2%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]86.5%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]84.6%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Denmark[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]21.2%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]21.2%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Chinese Taipei[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]61.6%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]India[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    
     
  2. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    [TABLE="width: 500"]
    [TR]
    [TD][TABLE="class: grid, width: 605"]
    [TR]
    [TD]Thomas Cup[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]Indonesia[/TD]
    [TD]Malaysia[/TD]
    [TD]China[/TD]
    [TD]Japan[/TD]
    [TD]Denmark[/TD]
    [TD]Korea[/TD]
    [TD]Thailand[/TD]
    [TD]Chinese Taipei[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Indonesia[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]70.9%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]60.5%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]73.4%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]85.7%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]91.3%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]91.1%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]96.7%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Malaysia[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]43.2%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]44.4%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]71.6%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]89.4%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]83.8%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]92.9%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]China[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]56.5%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]68.5%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]86.5%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]86.1%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]89.7%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Japan[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]77.4%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]85.4%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]85.7%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]92.6%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Denmark[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]81.3%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]73.3%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]79.5%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Korea[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]23.7%[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]55.7%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Thailand[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]79.1%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Chinese Taipei[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]

    instead of a user's guide I'll use Japan as an example.

    INA has a 73.4% winning ratio against JPN, MAS has 44.4% etc, and
    JPN has a 77.4% winning ratio against DEN, 85.4% against KOR etc.
     
  3. markuswair

    markuswair Regular Member

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    So, statistically-speaking, Indonesia will win Thomas Cup and China will win Uber Cup?
     
  4. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    yes, that's what the numbers predicted.

    BUT,

    still early day e.g. as today T. SUGIARTO is ranked second in the single thus gives him a better chance of winning against all the others except LCW. quite unrealistic IMHO.
     
  5. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    jumping the gun a bit, for the INA/CHN final;

    the predictions suggested that the 2 MDs to INA and the MS2/MS3 to CHN thus down to the first MS!
    INA might decided to field KUNCORO instead.
     
  6. markuswair

    markuswair Regular Member

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    I see. That would work perfectly against China indeed, albeit Tommy has once defeated Chen Long as well (still, the record is 1-7 for CL's favor). I bet China would plot Lin Dan as MS3, thus INA has no chance for winning the MS3.
     
  7. indrg

    indrg Regular Member

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    who is MS2/MS3 for CHN? DPY and WZM? For INA Hayom Rumbaka (H2H: Hayom vs. DPY = 3 - 0) and SDK can give a good showing versus both unless the secret weapon LinDan is MS2 or MS3.
     
    #7 indrg, Dec 16, 2013
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2013
  8. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    my guess is LD will play against INA as MS3. he can't play as MS2 otherwise CHN has to field someone young and inexperience as MS3.

    actually, if Chen Jin is not officially retried he can be the MS3.
     
  9. Jimmy_Goh

    Jimmy_Goh Regular Member

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    For me, I think Korea has a good chance in Thomas Cup.
    Korea has 2 strong MD in LYD/YYS and Kim/Kim, and a strong 3rd singles in LHI. And, Korea having 1st MS in SWH is not weak either.
    By end March 2014, after SS events in Korea, Malaysia & England, I think most probably LYD/YYS should overtake Kim/Kim. That should assure Korea of at least 2 points in MD as the current LYD/YYS looks unbeatable at MD1 . . . :)


    Screen shot 2013-12-28 at PM 06.44.50.png
    Screen shot 2013-12-28 at PM 06.43.00.png
     
    #9 Jimmy_Goh, Dec 28, 2013
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2013
  10. CLELY

    CLELY Regular Member

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    Lin Dan is trump card for CHN as he has 99,99% winning percentage against any other MS players, MS2 or MS3. So most likely CHN will field him at semifinal and final or even quarterfinal (depends on their opponent).
     
    #10 CLELY, Dec 30, 2013
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2013
  11. indrg

    indrg Regular Member

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    LHI already retired though, right?
     
  12. sen

    sen Regular Member

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    A question regarding whether LD or LHI will take part in Thomas Cup : is there a bwf regulation on players who have not played in bwf tournament for quite some time in order to play again ? This may include going thru random drug tests, etc.
     
  13. Qidong

    Qidong Regular Member

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    This is the first time since 2002 that Chinese is so vulnerable. If they fail to win TC, look like the Chinese MS/MD coaches will be in big trouble like ZN.
     
  14. latecomer

    latecomer Regular Member

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    Do not over analysis the situation, China is still the teams to beat in TC and UC. Every country would love to be in China's shoe. UC is a lock. As for TC, other than MD, name any three MS from any country VS CL, DPY and WZM, the odd of China retains the cup is still high.
     
  15. sen

    sen Regular Member

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    Anything is possible. Chong Wei Feng has beaten Du before, Daren Liew has beaten Wang ZM before.

    But China will come very prepared so they are still favourite.
     
  16. CLELY

    CLELY Regular Member

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    Yup, CHN had powerful combination in period of 2004-2012, the Chinese trio in MS was really strong LD-BCL-CJ then LD-CL-CJ two years ago plus Cai/Fu, their weakest link was only MD2. With the current squad, looks like their strength is pretty balance with other contenders...
     
  17. Justin L

    Justin L Regular Member

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    Same for me, I feel that this year CHN's Thomas Cup team is at their most vulnerable in a decade. CHN MDs 1 and 2 are facing serious challenge from at least five nations, namely, INA, KOR, JPN, DEN and MAS, not to mention possible threats from Chinese TPE, HKSAR and RUS (any others?).

    As for CHN MS, only MS1 Chen Long and MS3 Lin Dan(assuming he's the one) are more or less assured of victory with the only likely threat coming from MAS MS1 Lee CW, whereas CHN MS2 Du Pengyu (most probable candidate) is not quite a safe bet.

    Therefore, in the event that CHN lose MD1 and MS2, then their undependable MD2 will be facing immense pressure to deliver which is sure to affect their performance even more in a team championship. I read somewhere that LYB himself acknowledged CHN's worrying situation in the upcoming Thomas Cup.
     
  18. OneToughBirdie

    OneToughBirdie Regular Member

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    Debate can go on, if this or if that, dadada....Bet on CHN taking TC.
     
  19. Woffle

    Woffle Regular Member

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    I think that

    against MAS, CHN is still assured of MS 2/3 and one doubles match (presumably Hoon/Tan at MD1 with Lim/Goh at MD2)

    against KOR, I don't see how they can't win all three singles matches. Plus Kim/Kim has been pretty off recently, two first-round exits in the last two SS tournaments.

    I think CHN should be most worried about INA. Both Ahsan/Setiawan and current INA #2 Saputra/Pratama are in pretty good shape. From Tommy, SDK, and Dionysus taking a match off CHN MS is not unthinkable.

    For DEN, they don't have a good MD2 or MS2, MS3. CHN probably shouldn't be that concerned about DEN.

    As for JPN their MD1 is I think a tossup with Liu/Qiu but MD2 doesn't match up too well.

    All things considered I think the biggest threats to CHN are INA>KOR. KOR doesn't really have the singles to punch through CHN, I think, even though SWH is not weak. INA and CHN I think are about 50-50 to win Thomas Cup this year.

    However, not much discussion to be had about Uber Cup.
     
  20. Woffle

    Woffle Regular Member

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    Although, if CHN loses Thomas Cup this year, it could put a kick into them much like how losing the 2010 Uber Cup did.
     

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