Wild guess - why Bao, Xia, Xie lost in early rounds

Discussion in 'Dutch / Danish / German Open 2003' started by 2cents, Sep 25, 2003.

  1. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

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    Fans got pazzled when Bao, Xia, Xie lost to unknowns easily in the early rounds. Although everyone is good at giving their own opinions, and even claimed already foreseen this would happen. Therefore, I just give my wild guess.

    If you look at the draw, it is not difficult to find that If Bao had won, he would have to face Xia. If Xia Xuanze had won, he would have to face Chen Yu. If Xie Xinfang had won, she would have to face Zhang Ning. Counting all the cases, you will find that if the Chinese who would face his/her teammates next round, they all lost. If they are not, they all advanced (Just the singles, I don't pay attention to doubles)

    Then, think about it. There will be only 3 Chinese qualified for Olympics, and winning the Olympics gold is the ultimate reason why those Chinese playing badminton. Therefore, in fact, the competition is very high among those Chinese players. No one wants to lose this opportunity. Their competitors are not Wong CH, not Peter Gade, not Lees, not Taufik, instead their teammates are the real competitor. They don't actually compete seriously with other country's players, but their own teammates. All the players wants is that he can do better than his teammates, therefore qualified for the Olympics.

    Chinese badminton coach knows these very well, but the coach wants all the Chinese players, as a whole, are better than other countries. So the coach decided to pre-arrange the results between Chinese players in order to avoid internal frictions. Then Bao was ordered to lose to Xia in the 2nd round. But what Bao's most hated is that his teammats get more points in the ranking. SO what Bao can do??? He has to do the things he hates the most. If he had defeated Xia against Coach's order, he would be fired from national team. So Bao choosed to lose to the early round to Korea's Park on purpose, and hoped Park might be able stop Xia which is good for Bao to compete Xia for Olympic points. Therefore, Bao lost without any hesitation.

    Xia did the same thing. So did Xie Xinfang. They are not stupid. They definitely know what's the best for their interest.

    And as a whole, Chinese teams didn't hurt much fortunately. Because Chen Yu and Zhang Ning will win by at least 90% chance. Now matter how good they perform, Chinese can only have 3 spots in the final 8 of men's event.

    So before we blame the shuttlers, we should blame their coach, but before blame their coach, we should blame the unfair ranking system and the draw which is absolutely absurd. By statistical analysis, it shows that the draw is not randomly done. It seems that it has some conspiracy inside to counter Chinese's dominance of the badminton.
     
  2. kwun

    kwun Administrator

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    that's some scary conspiracy theory you have there 2cents. not sure if i agree or disagree, the thing is, we will probably never find out the truth. it sounds inplausible that anybody wants to deliberately lose to a player of another country. if i were Bao, i'd beat the crap out of Park first. grab some points, and then think about the rest.

    or collectively, the Chinese team just sucks for this tournament. as we have seen, even Chen Hong was stretched to 3 sets by a relatively less named shuttler today. perhaps they are all still tired after the triple tournaments in SEA last month.

    fact is, not many of us have seen the actual games, have you? we just have the scores and it is very hard to tell by just numbers. so any guesses we have (we are just guessing, aren't we?) aren't really worth much.

    imho, of course.
     
  3. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

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    According to IBF, Beating one opponent in a 5 star tournament no matter in which round (stupid huh:confused: ), will give you 72 points. The whole ranking points will collect the best of ten, therefore, 72 points is almost useless. Chinese officials said they have the money to guarantee everyone participate at least 12 tounaments. So this Denmark open is absolutely useless for Bao CL, Xia XZ and Xie XF.

    What you can expect better. No matter how good they perform, they can only get 3 spots in final 8. Now they did get all three spots. That is perfect already. And also Chen Yu deserves to advance other than Bao and Xia, because 1) he is better within the team 2) he sacrificed WC opportunity for his teammates 3) he sacrificed his matches before to Bao in the Msia open 4) he needs more points to be seeded

    Don't worry about Chen Hong. Even Pete Sampraz had to face many match points in the early rounds before grab the US open. Chen Hong controled the match most of the time. He used to have this kind of critical points before, like in WC with Shon, and in Malaysia open with Yeoh Kay Bin. Chen Hong overcame last time and grabbed the title finally. The player must be very concentrated during the whole match, otherwise the better player could lose.
     
  4. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

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    I forgot to mention another big reason for Bao, Xia Xuanze, Xie Xinfang to choose to lose is that they also want to avoid IBF panelities. Remember in the world champ, Chinese Yang/Zhang lost to Gao/Huang, IBF punished Yang/Zhang for losing. IBF could deprive players qualification to Olympics too. That's what Chinese players really worried about. Therefore, oneside, coach had order them to lose this match to his/her teamates, and on the other side, if he/she loses, IBF would punish them, if he/she wins, he/she will be fired from national team. Therefore, he/she has to choose to lose one round earlier to other nations player. Then no one can blame him/her. IBF will be happy, and also the most import point is that he can let the other nations player to jeopadise his/her Olympic points which himself/herself cannot do because of the rule set by the coach.

    See, Bao choosing to lose to Park is the PERFECT solution for himself. The only thing looks not good for himself is that he got 72 points less. But this is useless! Ranking system only counts the best 10 results. 72 points by no means is good enough to be counted. Even it counts, 72 points is not many. Chen Hong, the number one, is 978.98 points ahead of the second ranked Jonassen.
     
  5. SmartCivet

    SmartCivet Regular Member

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    If LinDan can defeat Gade,your theory is right again!
     
  6. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

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    Zheng Bo/Zhang Jiewen got to the final at Singapore open. They lost in the final because they were exhausted before playing Kim/Ra at the final. They were playing consective matches with no time in between to take a break.

    I found the draws and schedules were mostly against Chinese. All the quauterfinals today are scheduled at 18:30, why? Everybody knows there is only 4 courts, but 16 matches!!!

    The reason is clear, they want to leave it to them to manipulate. So Zhang Jiewen has to go the court and fight again. Why? It is unfair!!!

    Why not Kim/Ha now to play? Why not Lee/Ra ? Why not others?

    Well some people said IBF takes care of them to let them have a rest? But why not let Jiewen to take a rest. There are still a lot of singles and doubles waiting to play at 18:30.
     
  7. seven

    seven New Member

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    hmmm it shows you're chinese! :p
    (or pro-chinese at least!)
     
  8. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

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    is this a reproof or what? :confused:
     
  9. seven

    seven New Member

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    sorry, I don't think IBF is anti-chinese, and I don't believe in conspiration theories etc...

    that's my personnal opinion at least! :rolleyes:
     
  10. kwun

    kwun Administrator

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    conspiracy theory are just that, a theory, and likely we will never prove or disprove it! so let's not head there... :)
     
  11. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

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    Well, I discovered several conspircy and dirty plots as following, not only in IBF, but also inside Chinese team also.

    1) IBF manipulates draw based on its favour ( several impossible events happend which had a possibilities lower than 0.0002) (its favour happens to be match to agaist Chinese)

    2) IBF manipulates schedule based on its favour (its favour matches again to agaist Chinese)

    3) Chinese coach manipulates the results between Chinese players

    4) Chinese players lose the match to their teammates without fighting seriously

    5) Chinese players lose the match to early rounds foreigners without fighting seriously (this one is difficult for people to understand ;) ;) ;) )

    You believe none of them, or just selectively ?
     
  12. seven

    seven New Member

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    OK, point by point

    1/ sorry, I dought that your statistics are correct. The draw is very complicated, because it takes into account all the nationalities etc... if you want details, you can read the IBF's competition regulations... (then study probabilities and statistics at university too! ;) )

    2/ about this, I'm not sure IBF decides anything about the schedule, and I don't think it is done against the chinese on purpose in any case...
    (anyway, players who play in several disciplins know they take the risk)

    3/ that's internal strategy, nothing to do with IBF!

    4/ internal strategy too!

    5/ I've not seen these matches... have you?? I can't tell from the score if a player has played his best and was outplayed or if he just didn't play properly...
     
  13. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

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    Well, I already got a PhD in statistics, and also is working as a statistian for a big pharmaceutical company. I also have my own relational database for badminton men's single players, and published updated olympic rankings here. Since you cannot give any number of the possiblity, and just accused my results goundless, you are the persone need to take or retake the undergrade courses, or even the middle school basics.


    If a conspiracy can be found out by a watcher lik you, that's not a conspiracy. I bet even you watched the match a thousand times, you would still see nothing.
     
  14. kwun

    kwun Administrator

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    let's stay on topic. move the discussion on statistics and conspiracy theory to another thread. and let the nice respectful language stay in the forum, and the strong language out of the website.... thanks. ;)
     
  15. seven

    seven New Member

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    OK, no need to get anoid, your statistics still don't seem right to me but anyway that's not the point : the draw is done by a program, not by a person, and the program can't just chose to disadvantage the chinese cause it doesn't like them!

    about the matches, I can understand you are disappointed when chinese players lose, but this doesn't mean that they didn't play properly, it can sometimes happen that their opponent was just better than them!!! :rolleyes:

    anyway, as Kwun pointed out, you will never prove nor disprove your conspiracy theory, so it's no use discussing about it for ages...
    plus china already keep getting all the titles so what are you complaining about?? ;)
     
  16. seven

    seven New Member

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    yeah, I agree, sorry for these off-topic messages! :(
     
  17. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

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    That's the problem it lies. Is the program validated? Is the program passed the audit and statistical tests? Is the source code open to public for auditing and monitoring? It is exactly the case I am talking about. Computer codes are much easier to manipulate. Do you know the same code gave a draw put all four chinese players together for the world championship. And IBF had to admit it's a bug and had to recall. But they still use the same code now. I strong ask them to release the code, release the validation documents, audit documents and testing documents for the code.

    It seems that your assumption is not right, but you stick to it. What's your nationality? What's your definition of Chinese? I don't have a Chinese citizenship. Who tell you I am disappointed when Chinese lose? I really don't care much. My interest is to find out the truth and to find out who's stronger and more constant in the match.

    Sorry, Kwun. You can move the posts to another thread, but I cannot find one suitable than here now.
     
  18. seven

    seven New Member

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    my nationality is in my profile!

    IBF's program seems to have some bugs, but I don't see the link with a conspiracy! :confused:

    I shouldn't think IBF developped the program themselves, and can't imagine the programmers coding special "events" in case of chinese entry!
     
  19. kwun

    kwun Administrator

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    guys. just a reminder. the discussion generated by the belief (and disbelief) of a conspiracy theory is not that much different than the discussion generated by belief (and disbelief) of a religion. so please be respectful of each other's belief. else the moderator staff will be happy to lock this thread... ;)
     
  20. seven

    seven New Member

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    yeah I think the discussion is over anyway!

    I can't see anything more to say on that subject!! ;)
     

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