who will win the Thomas Cup 2004?

[jkusmanto]

Malaysia, Denmark and Korea come to Jakarta with their old squad.
I see no different. The players are almost the same as 2002.

Malaysia :
From 2002 squad : Wong CH, Lee TS, Roslin, Hafiz, Lee WW/Choong TF, Chan CM/Chew CE.
Added by : Lee CW, Koo KK.
The core of the team is still the 2002 squad.

Denmark :
From 2002 squad : Kenneth Jonassen, Anders Boesen, Peter Rasmussen, Lars Paaske/Jonas Rasmussen, Jens Eriksen/Martin Lundgaard Hansen (Peter didn't come, he was injured).
Added by : Peter Gade, Niels Christian Kaldau and Mathias Boe.
The core of the team is still the 2002 squad + Peter.

Korea :
From 2002 squad : Lee HI, Shon SM, Jang YS, Kim/Ha, Lee/Yoo.
Added by : Park TS and Kim/Yim.
The core of the team is still the 2002 squad + Park.

China :
From 2002 squad : Xia XZ, Bao CL, Chen H, Lin D.
Added by : Chen Y, Cai/Fu, Sang/Zheng and Chen QQ.

Indonesia :
From 2002 squad : Taufik H, Sony DK, Candra, Tri Kush.
Added by : Simon S, Wimpie M, Alven/Luluk, Eng/Flendi

Just China and Indonesia have a big change of thier squad.
Look at the player list up here, I think the TC final will be played between China - Indonesia.
China is strong in singles and Indonesia is strong doubles.
I am curious which strategy Li YB and Christian will take. But I think their will fix their strategy after their crash in group A qualification round.

 

[wilfredlgf]

From my point of view, in a China vs Indonesia tie, the Archilles heel of China is likely to be their doubles. High in talent and youth, their shortcomings perhaps from impatience and a little lack of variety in strategy compared to their Indonesian counterparts. We have seen how Cai/Fu fall to 'older' opponents who employ clever adaptations from experience - vs Choong/Lee for example. Perhaps only for this edition of TC, and I'd expect them to overcome that in the future.

I can't really see the Chinese singles dropping a point in their ties in Jakarta.

Thus, I believe Indonesia would go all out to take the points in doubles with Flande/Eng Hian, Candra/Tri Kush as well as Joker cards Alven/Luluk. Then, it will be up to both Taufik and Sony to overcome the supreme power of the singles to take one point and win it.

And that can work, with them playing in the Jakarta.
And that could also be the main strategy for their opponents with strong doubles pairs.

 

[Pecheur]

I can't really see the Chinese singles dropping a point in their ties in Jakarta.

Really? Taufik is lethal in Indo, especially since he'll be playing second singles with any of Bao, Chen Hong or Xia who far less dangerous than Lin Dan currently.

Actually Taufik's is even 2-2 with Bao, 5-0 with Chen Hong and 3-2 with Xia.

 

[Woven]

I can't really see the Chinese singles dropping a point in their ties in Jakarta.

what i can say is that i can't really see the chinese winning their tie against Indonesia. Lin Dan is most likely to clinch their first singles, but that will most probably be it. both doubles will surely be clinched by Indonesia although Fu and Cai are likely to put a tough fight. and Taufik will probably do his part and win the tie for Indonesia. Plus the crowd factor will definitely play a significant part in this particular tie.

 

[hcyong]

what i can say is that i can't really see the chinese winning their tie against Indonesia. Lin Dan is most likely to clinch their first singles, but that will most probably be it. both doubles will surely be clinched by Indonesia although Fu and Cai are likely to put a tough fight. and Taufik will probably do his part and win the tie for Indonesia. Plus the crowd factor will definitely play a significant part in this particular tie.

Against any other team, I would say the Chinese are most likely to take the 3 singles ties. But against Indonesia, there is a dangerous second singles in Taufik. I think China would a better chance if Taufik is the first.

Based on your hypothesis, Indonesia takes 2 doubles.
China takes 2 singles (Indon's 3rd singles - Simon - surely would have even lesser chance than Sang/Zheng in winning)
So it goes down to the Taufik tie. But China's second singles (could be Bao, Chen, Xia) is not a pushover either. China also has the flexibility of choosing from 3 players for the second singles, as I think even Chen Yu should have no problems dispatching Simon Santoso.

 

[Loh]

There will be great upsets at the TC Finals, no less fuelled by the thunderous eruption of the Indonesian fans in support of their compatriots against all opposition! Even mighty China will fall on its knees, unable to counter the diversified attacks of the patriotic Indonesians on home soil!

The writing is on the wall; the images are compelling; there is no escape!

 

[hcyong]

There will be great upsets at the TC Finals, no less fuelled by the thunderous eruption of the Indonesian fans in support of their compatriots against all opposition! Even mighty China will fall on its knees, unable to counter the diversified attacks of the patriotic Indonesians on home soil!

The writing is on the wall; the images are compelling; there is no escape!

... or you'll eat your slippers?

 

[Loh]

... or you'll eat your slippers?

Sometimes you need to let your imagination run wild! And not to take it too seriously!

Anyway, what's your bet? I still take Indonesia to win!

 

[hcyong]

Sometimes you need to let your imagination run wild! And not to take it too seriously!

Anyway, what's your bet? I still take Indonesia to win!

I'll take the chicken-out way by taking China. If I lose, I promise I won't eat my slippers.

 

[jkusmanto]

In my first prediction, the line up of Indonesia team was :
1. Sonny
2. Taufik
3. Simon
4. Candera/Halim
5. Flandi/Eng

It seems that no change in singles, and a little bit in double.
So the line seems to be :
1. Sonny
2. Taufik
3. Simon
4. Alve/Luluk or Flandi/Eng
5. Flandi/Eng or Candera/Tri Kush

Indo vs Korea, it will be 3-2 (2 singles and 1 double)
Indo vs Malaysia or Indo vs Denmark, it will be 4-1 (2 singles and 2 doubles) or 3-2 (1 single and 2 doubles)
Indo vs China, it will be 3-2 (1 single and 2 double) or 2-3 (2 doubles).

There will be great upsets at the TC Finals, no less fuelled by the thunderous eruption of the Indonesian fans in support of their compatriots against all opposition! Even mighty China will fall on its knees, unable to counter the diversified attacks of the patriotic Indonesians on home soil!

The writing is on the wall; the images are compelling; there is no escape!

Loh :
I am sure that will happen in Bung Karno Stadion.
The Indo fans will more crazy if Indo vs Malaysia than vs China.
Remember the incidents in the same stadion in 1967 and 1994, both were Indo vs Malaysia.
But the organizing committee has promised to conduct a good pleasant sfeer in the stadion.

Against Indo in final (if Indo goes to final ) has to against 3 opponents :
-The players of Indo's team
-The fanatic publics
-And maybe the lines men.

So, you has to have a very strong mentality to get up from this kind of "crash".

 

[Woven]

Against Indo in final (if Indo goes to final ) has to against 3 opponents :
-The players of Indo's team
-The fanatic publics
-And maybe the lines men.

I'd like to add another opponent to anyone who plays against Indo
- Their own concern for safety .
i dont think they wanna stick around for too long if they happen to be upset the Indo fans

 

[Loh]

I'll take the chicken-out way by taking China. If I lose, I promise I won't eat my slippers.

Good! At least we'll have a good fight on our hands.

If I don't make it to Bung Kano Stadium, I hope there will be a live telecast so that I could enjoy all the proceedings over my favourite cup of coffee and a little tid-bits (I tried to avoid my favourite ground nuts, but I don't think I can resist).

Did I say great upsets? Yes, jusmanto may even surprise himself to see China being thrashed by his countrymen, 4-1.

Hcyong, were you at the ABC? I think you must have been, as I myself could not resist the thought of missing it and went up KL the last minute on Friday afternoon. after mulling it over in the morning when I went to the office. Don't you agree that the Indonesian men players were in devastating form? As what Misbun and Kim Hock had said, the Malaysians were disappointing even on home ground.

We'll have to wait and see.

 

[jkusmanto]

Good! At least we'll have a good fight on our hands.

If I don't make it to Bung Kano Stadium, I hope there will be a live telecast so that I could enjoy all the proceedings over my favourite cup of coffee and a little tid-bits (I tried to avoid my favourite ground nuts, but I don't think I can resist).

Did I say great upsets? Yes, jusmanto may even surprise himself to see China being thrashed by his countrymen, 4-1.

Don't you agree that the Indonesian men players were in devastating form? As what Misbun and Kim Hock had said, the Malaysians were disappointing even on home ground.

We'll have to wait and see.

Sure there is a telecast, TC/UC without telecast is .... nothing
Indonesian TV : Trans TV will live when Indo plays + semi + final.
If Indo can beat China 4-1 in final, I will buy you a drink Loh.....

What did you mean by this sentence : "... the Indonesian men players were in devastating form? "

 

[jamesd20]

Sure there is a telecast, TC/UC without telecast is .... nothing
Indonesian TV : Trans TV will live when Indo plays + semi + final.
If Indo can beat China 4-1 in final, I will buy you a drink Loh.....

What did you mean by this sentence : "... the Indonesian men players were in devastating form? "

Think he means indonesian players were in great form in ABC champs.

They were.

I got a feeling INA will win, not sure why everyone raves about CHN doubles, but they have yet prove themselves consistenly against top pairs:

cai/fu great on their day, but can be inconsistent against top pairs, as Kim/Ha, Lee/choong, Any INA pair. They are very good at beating weaker pairs though.


sang/zheng too inconsistent, they can beat the best, then lose to USA pair. cant rely on them.


zhang/chen/chen..... enough said


The exciting thing about the thomas cup is that it is all the top players playing the top players, so it is quite unpredictable in individual rubbers. I feel INA save their best performances for thomas cup, as the doubles know what they have to do (win both) and this is advantage for them, as they are talented and need pressure to perform to potential. and all they (INA) need is 1/3 singles.

Sure China singles is strong, but since when was tc won on singles alone, otherwise CHN would have won past 5, not INA. My vote is that all top nations are very close this time (maybe malaysia off the pace), and CHN, KOR, INA, DEN are all capable, there is no clear favourite in reality (on paper CHN would walk it), and there are no dark horses.

 

[Gade supporter]

it is funny to see that we count Korea as the team with worst chances. Look at the team maybe 2 doubles in top 5 of the world, and Lee Hyun Il can play very well, hasnt been doing so well lately, then Shon Seung Mo that can play very good if he dosnt get to nervous, and then Park Tae Sang a player in very good shape at the moment(semifinals Korea, Japan and ABC) My favourites for the titel is Denamrk, China and Korea.

 

[jamesd20]

I count Malaysia as the one with worst chances of the big nations (MAL, KOR, DEN, INA, CHN), as they have only one consistent singles player(wong), and one semi consistent doubles pair. Their second doubles is very inconsistent, and other singles (hafiz, LCW, roslin) have difficulties maintaining form. If their singles players fire though, and Choong/lee can do what they are capable of, then they have a good chance.

DEN, INA, KOR, CHN have equal chance in my mind

 

[seven]

Choong/Lee might not be representing Malaysia!

Lee Wan Wah is injured!! (see here)

 

[jamesd20]

If so, then they definitley have the worst chances of the big 5.

 

[kwun]

Choong/Lee might not be representing Malaysia!

Lee Wan Wah is injured!! (see here)

yes. that's bad news indeed for Malaysia. depending on the severity of the injury, that may nullify the momentum that Choong/Lee has built up before the cup. they have been more consistent than they ever recently and has shown that if they play their best, they have the ability to beat the best pairs.

however, we must also remember that LeeWW *is* prone to injury and that's the major reason why Choong/Lee has not shown much results in the past couple of years. if LeeWW acts up again, that will be bad news for them.

 

[Loh]

Sure there is a telecast, TC/UC without telecast is .... nothing
Indonesian TV : Trans TV will live when Indo plays + semi + final.
If Indo can beat China 4-1 in final, I will buy you a drink Loh.....

What did you mean by this sentence : "... the Indonesian men players were in devastating form? "

Thanks jkusmanto for your offer of a drink all the way from Belgium! I don't think you can make it to Jakarta for the TC, otherwise I'll join you.

Obviously, even you don't think Indonesia can create a great upset. When I mentioned that their "players were in devastating form", I was referring to their performance during the ABC in KL. I was there from the QF onwards and saw how good both Sony, Taufik and your doubles players were. They were 'unbeatable' by all others. Their form was 'devastating'; they created great havoc to the other players.

Hafiz matched Sony during the first game of the QF but still lost and he was completely outgunned during the second. Taufik fooled around with Ng Wei, although the latter was playing "textbook" badminton as described by Bbn. In the doubles, the non-Indonesian teams were no match for the Indonesians. The M'sian pairs were disappointing! Not even the better prepared Koreans can match Sony and Taufik! And we are just about a week away from the TC Finals!

Yes, China stayed away from the ABC and maybe thought that they could better utilize the time for further preparations. This may be to their detriment as real match competitions such as the ABC are a good tool to sharpen the players' skills, senses and temperament.

Indonesia's trump cards are in their first two singles and any two doubles and as I have said they are peaking at the right time and in 'devastating' form! The other point that Indonesia can rely on is none other than their famous spectators and fans support. So Indonesia may even be able to make a clean sweep. A 4-1 winning outcome is a fair possibility. A 3-2 prediction is entirely achievable!