I can't believe that there is no Tai Tzu Ying in the poll. She is the highest earner among WS this year. Based on last one year or so: highest probability: Carolina, Ratchanok, Nozomi and Tai Tzu Ying medium probability: LXR, WYH, Saina dark horses: Sindhu, Sung JI Hyun, Akane. But, of course I am biased, and I want Saina or Sindhu to win.
The most interesting and difficult to answer poll, kudos badlove ! Airos I can't imagine u put LXR in medium probability, she according to me is a strong fav! I don't see anyone but 101% fit n fresh RI(highly improbable) def her. Unless she choke out herself of the extravaganza, it'll be second consecutive Gold! NO and SJH have the least probability (IMO) in the "elite" section, as they are very dangerous in the starting rounds but as the game proceeds they wear off (OG follows a Round Robin procedure), unless NO is back to Dubai form I am writing her off! SN and WYH are more like silver/bronze contender to me, idk just don't feel the gold medal aura from them (100% sure they'll clinch atleast medal) TTY, RI and CM are hard to predict whoever makes less error shall prevail. Just my opinion (before the draw): Gold: LXR > CM/RI/SN/WYH/TTY> NO/PVS> SJH/AY
I was merely looking at the results from last one year or so. LXR's last win was her home event CSSP. But LXR was terrific during the uber cup. If she can be like that, it will be hard to beat her. I also think you are underestimating NO. Dubai SSF and AE SSP are 2 very big tournaments and she dominated in those. Also, there is a big Japanese base in Brazil. The Japanese will get a lot of support in Rio. TTY is very unpredictable, but when things are working for her it looks amazing. I actually think that WYH, if she does go to Rio, will be very hard to stop. It will probably be her last Oly and she will give everything. She actually has a better H2H against LXR and won her last 2 meetings against LXR. Also, LXR hasn't beaten Carolina since mid-2014.
It's very exiting, because last time TTY was doing well, she had a whole streak of good results; can we expect the same again? Will she last long enough? NO of course has shown her abilities, and despite less inspired performances lately (I think due to poor tactics), she's shown she can do it in the big tournaments. CM is going to be insufferable at the olympics; how much of a weapon can she turn that into? RI finally seems to have some form (is it already three years ago?) with which she can win tournaments again. And the current Olympic title holder can't be discounted because she's shown so many times already that she can win (even if this year's not her best). WYH, Saina, Yamaguchi and SJH would be the vultures ready to gobble up the goods if somebody else drops it. If I were a 15yo WS player, I'd be rueing my choice of discipline.
I counted five players whose fitness and stamina can enable any one of them to beat Li Xuerui who may be the most skillful but whose fitness is still suspect, I worry. They are, first and foremost,Saina Nehwal,the fittest of the Olympians. The comes the other four, not in any order, namely, Intanon Ratchanok, Carolina Marin, Nozomi Okuhara,and Tai Tzu Ying. It used to be, for me at least, that LXR's overriding concern is her mental fragility (which cost her two WC) but lately she seemed to have outgrown it considerably, instead it's, at the moment, her lack of fitness and stamina that may drag her down. Even Wang Yihan is superior to her in this aspect, except that WYH is unstable,too inconsistent, for us to predict how far she can go at the Rio Olympics. What set me thinking was , first, the LXR vs SN Uber Cup match where in G2 LXR at 8-all was showing obvious signs of fatigue and quickly went downhill; it was her superior technique, shot selection,sheer grit and determination as well as Saina's unforced errors that won her the decider. Next, was the Saina vs Intanon AUS Open semifinal where Saina's supreme fitness level enabled her to play at a consistently high pace throughout and allowed her to better deal with Intanon's deceptive game. Surprisingly it was Intanon, herself remarkably fit, who couldn't cope with Saina's speed and aggression and lost tamely in G2
I rate Li Xuerui and Wang Yihan as the top favourite, follow by Ratchanok and Marin in that order. the others are just to made up the numbers, I'm afraid.
I wouldn't be surprised if SN edge out RI, WYH or even CM for that matter,unfortunately LXR is still a far cry! Also it's kinda confusing for me why not LXR is the leading lady (that too by quite a significant margin)! She has skills plus the grit/determination every other lady (currently) imho lacks atleast one of the aforementioned!
What's Saina's performance been like lately to inspire this confidence? Definitely a good player, but she's been struggling to stay relevant in this new age od women's singles.
Xie Zhihua, the Chinese-Thai coach of Intanon Ratchanok picks the following as gold prospects: CHN players, Carolina Marin (Spain), Tai Tzu Ying (Chinese Taipei), Saina Nehwal (India), Sung Ji Hyun (Korea), Nozomi Okuhara and Akane Yamaguchi (Japan). As for the CHN players,as the list is not confirmed yet, he thought, perhaps,it might not necessarily be 'three choose two' (that is, Li Xuerui , Wang Yihan and Wang Shixian, but also Sun Yu and He Bingjiao, the two younger players,who are able to fulfil the qualifications), rather send a young player to compete. http://sports.sina.com.cn/others/badmin/2016-07-03/doc-ifxtsatn7991331.shtml
If what Xie Zhihua said actually comes about, I'd select Li Xuerui and Sun Yu. I know, Sun Yu lost to Nicahaon Jindapol at the just-concluded Chinese Taipei GPG, but i find it suspect, esp her loss in G2 where she was clearly leading most of the way. Anyway,not important. In my humble opinion, what's going for Sun Yu, if she's picked, is that she goes to Rio as an underdog, her pressure of the burden of expectations won't be too great as to have a debilitating effect on her, and, on the contrary,her utmost desire to make the most of such an unexpected opportunity will be a huge boost to her morale, enabling her to rise to the occasion. A player on the rise is the most dangerous, capable of causing many upsets, esp when few expects much from her. At the moment, Sun Yu fits that prognosis, of late she has beaten the likes of Nozomi Okuhara (twice), Intanon Ratchanok , Akane Yamaguchi, Sung Ji Hyun, etc. In recent months, Sun Yu's progress has been slow but steady. I believed a nimbler Sun Yu with her height, reach and build can be very intimidating, and that's how she should train herself to be.
Yes, technically speaking, according to the Race to Rio Standings by 1st May 2016 of the OG Qualification period, Sun Yu was ranked 13th while He Bingjiao 15th, where the top 16 for WS qualified limited to max 2 per NOC.