Which two Chinese WS players will go to Rio?

Discussion in 'Olympics 2016 - RIO' started by pcll99, May 31, 2015.

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Which two Chinese Women's Singles players will go to Rio?

Poll closed Jul 14, 2016.
  1. LXR

    80.3%
  2. WYH

    54.1%
  3. WSX

    49.2%
  4. Sun Yu

    4.9%
  5. HBJ

    3.3%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. Sundis

    Sundis Regular Member

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    I said this in Another thread also: LXR looks more fat now compared to 2-3 yrs ago, that is affecting her play.
     
  2. Zomania

    Zomania Regular Member

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    It is too soon to tell. Anyway, the best two players will be there.

    If all of the trio [Li and 2 Wangs] are in the equal fitness, I would pick LXR and WYH.
    Anything can happen in 11 months period.
     
  3. pcll99

    pcll99 Regular Member

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    As of today, the four Chinese WS players world rankings are:

    4. LXR
    5. WSX
    7. WYH
    11. Sun Yu

    The players need to shift to higher gear from Jan to May 2016, which was what LXR did in the last Olympic cycle. (As in 2012, there are only four SS/PSS events in that time slot for 2016.) The Olympic qualification period will end in early May. Thomas/Uber Cup will be held in late May.

    LYB will have to choose two among WYH, LXR, WSX and Sun Yu for the Olympics. If I understand the qualification rules correctly, LYB can choose any two of the three provided that China has secured all top three places by early May 2016. CMIIW, anyone who is ranked No. 4 in early May cannot be chosen by LYB. This is why Sun Yu, if she still wants to have a shot at Rio, needs to shift to higher gears at the Super Series Finals 2015 at the end of this year since there are only four SS/SSP events from Jan to early May 2016. (There are no SS or PSS event in Jan to Feb 2016). Sun Yu is the only girl who has won a SS title this year.

    Assuming three out of the four Chinese WS players are able to grab the top three spots in world ranking, LYB will probably decide which two will go to Rio after Uber Cup in late May to be held in Kushan, JiangSu, which is the home province of Chen Jin and WSX. Kushan is on the outskirt of Suzhou, which is the home town of WSX. WSX may come to the fore in the final of Uber Cup.

    If WSX wins against the opponent in the first match on the final day, she will go to Rio. No question there. If WSX and Chen Jin falter in home ground, WSX's position would be dicey.

    There are of course two major events immediately after Thomas/Uber Cup in 2016: Indonesian Open and Aussie Open. Sadly, the Olympic qualification has ended by the time these two events are to be held. I doubt these two events will have much bearing for the selection process as the top priorities then will be internal training and minimisation of risk.

    BUT, if the three of the four Chinese WS players cannot grab the top three in ranks by early May 2016, then the race for Rio has indeed started already!! Maybe that's the plan of Chen Jin from day one!!! If that's indeed the case, then WSX will almost certainly go to Rio!!! Chen Jin is a genius!
     
  4. Justin L

    Justin L Regular Member

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    The top 4 WR rules which allows any one NOC/MA/nation to select max three candidates to the Olympics no longer applies for the Rio Olympics and beyond. In other words Sun Yu currently ranked 11 is still in the running for one of the two spots but her performance by the time of the OG qualification cut-off date (1st May 2015, I think) has to be comparable if not better than at least two of her other three senior teammates to justify her selection; otherwise, it will be quite a stretch for LYB and coaches to pick Sun Yu over two others.

    However, I don't agree with you that how CHN WS fare at the Uber Cup, and the following two tournaments next year has no bearing on the selection process, externally yes but internally CBA will take into account the latest form of the potential candidates nearer to the Olympics just before submitting the final name list to IOC/BWF. Even so, it's only one of the criteria, the other being their respective records versus the rest of the world and, of course, their world ranking, barring other unforeseen circumstances.

    The picture will become much clearer by April 2015. As of now, I'd say none of the four mentioned CHN WS are frontrunners, each of the four has her own individual problems or negatives, no-one has a clear positive in her favour, all falling short of expectations by far although WSX of late has shown some more encouraging results than the other three but, undoubtedly, probably not enough to convince LYB and CJ as far as winning Olympic gold is concerned.
     
  5. pcll99

    pcll99 Regular Member

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    thanks. Are u saying LYB can choose any two players among the four as long as the four are in top 16?
     
  6. Nine Tailed Fox

    Nine Tailed Fox Regular Member

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    Lin Dan said that he wants to be the part of the team that CBA will select on 1st April and you guys are saying May,June....:confused:
     
  7. Justin L

    Justin L Regular Member

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    Yes, that should be it, better to confirm it by checking the rules and regulations later when available.
     
  8. pcll99

    pcll99 Regular Member

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    You might be right. I thought a player has to be within top 3 in world ranking in order to be chosen.

    If you are indeed correct, that would explain why the Chinese Women's Singles are in such doldrums since the new quota was announced. A Chinese WS player only needs to be in top 16 in order to be chosen!!! There is no need in top 3. Now everything makes sense!!!
     
  9. Justin L

    Justin L Regular Member

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    It's here OLYMPIC QUALIFYING REGULATIONS FOR RIO 2016 http://www.bwfbadminton.org/file.aspx?id=550404&dl=1

    Note D. Qualification Pathway

    Qualification Places

    "... Each list will be based on results achieved during the period 4 May 2015 to 1 May 2016..."
     
  10. Justin L

    Justin L Regular Member

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    Confirmed here http://www.bwfbadminton.org/file.aspx?id=550404&dl=1 under B. Athletes Quota, sub-heading NOC event specific quota:
     
  11. Justin L

    Justin L Regular Member

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    http://www.bwfbadminton.org/file.aspx?id=550404&dl=1

    Take note of G. Qualification Time-line. esp the last two dates which should be year 2016, not 2012 (suspect misprint as other dates are correct):

    31 May 2012 (should be 2016) Deadline for NOC’s to confirm to BWF their selection of qualified players/pairs

    9 July 2012 (should be 2016) Deadline for London 2012 Organising Committee to receive entry forms (I think there may be an error here, it should be Rio de Janeiro 2016 Organizing committee)
     
  12. pcll99

    pcll99 Regular Member

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    Thanks. Everything makes sense now.

    I was foolish enough to actually believe (for a few seconds) that the Rest of the World has actually gotten better in badminton in Women's Singles.
     
  13. Justin L

    Justin L Regular Member

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    Why do you not think so when Sun Yu won the sole SS title, the OUE SIN Open 2015, since Oct 2014 when WSX last took the French Open ? At the very least, we've to admit that the rest of the world has caught up if not overtaken CHN WS for the time being.
     
  14. pcll99

    pcll99 Regular Member

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    It explains why Chen Jin is still at his job, and probably why Chen Jin got the job in the first place.

    Chen Jin assumed his current role in early Jan 2014.

    http://sports.sohu.com/20140105/n392991755.shtml

    BWF announced the new quota system on 11 Feb 2014.

    http://www.bwfbadminton.org/news_item.aspx?id=81084

    Before making such a fundamental change to the Olympics, BWF would have consulted widely beforehand among the NOCs. LYB must have gotten wind of the situation in late 2013.

    LYB planned this from day one.
     
  15. pcll99

    pcll99 Regular Member

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    In the past, LYB needed to have four players at top 4.

    Now, he only needs to have three (or at most four) players at top 16.

    Isn't it very obvious?
     
  16. kelana

    kelana Regular Member

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    I got your points! But do not want to fan the tigers here by such rather unconventional hypothesis...

    save it until the event is done...

    Of course I'll remember your hypothesis... YOU're the first who said it! ;)
     
  17. syntaxerror

    syntaxerror Regular Member

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    For me WS1 has to be Wang Shixian off current form. Seems the most confident and coming off strong victories (esp. over Marin). LXR just seems permanently damaged mentally and Yihan is way too inconsistent.
     
  18. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    am i the only one didn't got your point?

    are you saying in the past with 3 OLY places available China's head coach employed the best coaches available to got their players at the top so that he had the best group of players to select? and since only 2 places are available for 2016 Rio he decided to use an inferior/inexperience coach as in Chen Jin to lower the quantity/quality of their top players?

    and LYB planned all that? for what purposes?
     
  19. pcll99

    pcll99 Regular Member

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    I am saying that for the past 3 OLY, LYB needed to employ the coaches who can get their four players to top four.

    Now LYB only needs to employ a person who only needs to get three (or at most four) players to top 16.

    Just look at LXR. She didn't win any title for the past 12 months, and she is ranked no. 4 in the world. She only needed to win at the team events in May. That's her sole mission for the past 12 months. Why didn't LXR win the World Championships? Just look at XXF. She won the World Championships twice and didn't win the Olympics. Just look at Zhu Lin. She won and was not selected to go to the OLY. Look at Lu Lan. She won and then good bye. Look at Wang Lin. She won and then many surgeries followed. Look at WYH. She won and then lost at the OLY the next year. The message from LYB is very clear; he doesn't care about the World Championships. (Maybe the players themselves and their respective home provinces care a lot.)

    LXR's losing at WC2013 against Ratchnok was not the reason why Zhang Ning was replaced by Chen Jin in early Jan 2014. The change in the Olympic qualification quota was the only possible explanation--it is the perfect opportunity to groom Chen Jin, who only had 9 months of experience in coaching in early January 2014. LYB must be thinking: "Give Chen Jin two or three Olympic cycles to develop his coaching skills. Just take it easy". Zhang Ning has no more need to fly around the world 12 times a year; she can take care of her infant at home. (Maybe LYB will let Zhang Ning fly to Europe to meet her husband there once or twice a year.) Tang XH can semi-retire!! The four players themselves can cut themselves some slack. Everyone is happy!!

    Getting three (or at most four) players to top 16 is a whole lot simpler than getting all four players to top 4. Although I have the utmost respect for Chen Jin, his job is much easier than Zhang Ning's or Tang XH's.
     
    #59 pcll99, Sep 21, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2015
  20. pcll99

    pcll99 Regular Member

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    [emphasis added]

    any thoughts? rebuttal?
     

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