Lin Dan enjoys the luxury of options and offers that LCW doesn't have as much. That's why I think and hope LCW will carry on for a couple of years while he still has it in him. Lin Dan, he won't have the motivation,drive or hunger to do more of the same thing as he's been there and done that so many times but he may still play a little, the team championships if needed, and at the same time do much more badminton-related commercial activities to fulfil his multi-million-dollar contract with Yonex. Expect Lin Dan to go back to his celebrity lifestyle. Don't forget, after LOG'12, he stated publicly that henceforth his family comes first, can you imagine any top professional player saying that? He could because he has nothing more to prove and he's decided to carry on another four years mainly to maximise his worth, enhance his value, prolong his career, all for the purpose of planning for his future and building his retirement nest eggs. I believe Lin Dan saying he's coming back with the aim of chasing his third Olympic gold is part of Yonex's marketing strategy to generate heightened interest,great excitement, further suspense, to pull in the crowd, maximise media coverage, whenever, wherever and whatever tournaments he played in. Apparently, Lin Dan and Yonex have succeeded these four years. Of course, it'll be best if Lin Dan had achieved another gold at Rio but , if not as already happened, I'm pretty sure Yonex already have many publicity stunts lined up for him; they'd definitely want their money's worth from him for the 10-yr lucrative contract. Lin Dan is still a megastar, his popularity, his appeal, his celebrity status for which he's cut out for with his demeanour, poise, style and manner of speaking (just look at the way he conducts himself at interviews, conferences , on TV), and the many other products for which he is the spokesman - all this makes it worthwhile for the various sponsors. I'm afraid, this is something LCW falls far short of, not just in badminton results; like it or not, that's the reality.
From the gruelling world of road cycling, grand tour winners mature and peak in the late 20's and early 30's. As one advances in the 30's there is only a small loss of power and speed (which is significant for sprints but not for Tour de France), but a growing reduction in speed of recovery. Given the format of 1 match / day at the elite level, I don't think age is an issue for LCW. He has the added benefit of being so light that he suffers much less cumulative joint damage than heavier athletes. He is already the fastest player, so if he loses 5% speed, he is still ahead of everyone else. What will be determining (aside from a career-ending injury) will be his motivation. It's hard for LCW to pronounce on Tokyo at this point, but if in a year or two he still feels good, he may well consider it, especially if there is no other Malaysian MS contender. If he is top 3 in the world, qualifying won't be an issue as it was this past year due to his ban, so he would only need to cruise and then build up for the OG, instead of frantically earning points and playing Canada Open and US Open, lol. If he scales back tournaments, he should be physically fine. I agree that Tokyo is far-fetched for Lin Dan, though, as he was in Rio the shadow of the nuclear weapon he was in Beijing. Veni, vidi, vici. He can do more ads ($$$), or fashion or start family.
Its the motivation. After training their heart out for 15 years, its time that they would want to take some time off and rest. By the time they start missing the game, it would be too late for them in competitive badminton. As much as we would like to see them play for another year or two, that is not happening. And should not. It would be bad to see them lose to lesser ranked opponents. For their sake, they should retire when still on top.
I agree that motivation is key for top level badminton, or any sports for that matter, esp those who live and breathe badminton. In this regard, I believe LCW is still sufficiently high on which explains his remarkable longevity mainly because he's continuously and persistently chasing that elusive gold, his hunger never wanes. Seeing him play at the Rio Olympics, I'm convinced even at this late stage in his career, aged 33, I believe he's good for another two years or so. I trust LCW can do better than Peter Gade at the same age. Let him take it one year at a time. Even Lin Dan didn't immediately announce his retirement but he's going to take a well-deserved break first before making any plans. But for him who's in the opposite position as LCW in accomplishments, his motivation or lack thereof will be a serious stumbling block. So most probably, Lin Dan will still be involved in badminton-related activities, apart from his various commercial ones, but not active competition and certainly I'd rule out Tokyo 2020 for him, as Rio'16 is a telling indication of his diminishing form and motivation.
