Momota and LCW have met three times since April 2018, with Momota winning twice. I am not quite sure what your basis for thinking that LCW has a "60% probability" of winning is (...a case of wishful thinking?), but it looks like the last two encounters with Momota may have taken their toll. If the rumours prove true, barring injury, Momota's only potential obstacle en route to the final is likely to be Kidambi Srikanth.
In my opinion,the Asian Games is no less tough as the world championships where practically almost all the world's best are in attendance. Can he guarantee he'll be in his optimal condition at the AG individual event, the third of the back-to-back tournaments in as many weeks, assuming he is playing the world champs followed by the AG team event prior to it ? Is that why he's mulling over skipping the world champs ? Apart from injury or illness considerations, it's not a wise decision at all. Don't tell me the rewards promised by BAM and the sponsors for winning the AG is as great as for the World Champs in his case ? Even so, I'd prefer him to be called World Champion than Asian Champion. After all , he's expected to face more or less the same threats at the AG as for the WC. Don't understand why he thinks he's got better chances at the former event than the latter. His reason that the AG is a quadrennial event and, therefore, it's his last and final chance to acquire it, a major title for Asians, whilst the WC is an annual event for which he can try again next year, just doesn't convince me. Somehow I don't buy it for I regard the World title as bigger than the Asian title, and he'd be fresher going into the world champs than at the Asian champs more than a week later. I daresay he has only himself to blame if he didn't go all out at the world champs, it might be a case of being so near and he chooses to let it go, surely a cause for painful regret when he looks back years later.
To Asian players, Asian Games medals fare much higher than badminton WC. It is much more appreciated by their respective country because this is a whole sport games with badminton as one part of it. Asian Games is the second most important event there is after Olympics. Even in Korea, you can be exempted from the military obligation if you are Olympic or Asian Games medalists but not for World Champions of anything. Asian Champion is for the winner of Asian Championship. So of course World Champion is better than Asian Champion. If you observed LCW condition and performances in Indonesia Open, he won all his matches up till Semi Final but in a hard way. By the time he faced KM he had almost no fuel left in him. Even in Malaysia Open he almost lost G2 in Final. He knew he couldn't handle two back to back tournament if he gave it all in any. So he is probably considering of putting most of his effort in Asian Games which I think is the better decision since every player would give their best there.
I'm thinking that LCW at the semis of the WC, which is actually the 5th match of the tournament, is not too tired to take Momota on than he would be at the AG three consecutive weeks later with little rest in between. Btw, at the INA Open semifinals, LCW was practically running away with the game in the first half of G1 before fatigue set in to take its toll in the back-to-back tournament, esp evident in G2. More importantly, it is my belief that LCW is superior to KM in terms of technical skills, knowledge and experience, that's the basis for my saying he has a 60% chance of beating KM. Therefore, if LCW were to meet KM again at the AG final, the 5th match of the tournament, he would probably not be in best shape, certainly not as good as he would be at the WC, to overcome KM. That's just my opinion.
https://www.nst.com.my/sports/badminton/2018/07/393910/sick-chong-wei-serves-shocker looks like he skip both ???
A fully powered engine LCW can beat both KM and VA easily, but sick? It's impossible. What a luck, sick just before the two biggest event..
On the contrary, it looks like Momota proved a bit too much over the last month, even for a "fully-powered engine LCW". It is a shame though; the World Championships would have been more interesting with LCW joining the fray.
I concede that for Asians, the Asian Games is their equivalent of the Olympics, a huge multi-sport event once in four years, and for nationalistic reasons may be regarded more highly than the world championships for individual sports where individual glory ranks as high as , if not higher than, national glory. But I'm pretty sure, if LCW wins the WC, it will be treated as the highest glory for the nation, no less than for winning the AG, as far as MAS is concerned, just wait till you see how he's feted back home, treated like the homecoming of a triumphant King returning from battle. Since that's the case for the Malaysians, why not go all out at the WC where I think he has a slightly higher chance of succeeding for being fresher, and then try his level best again at the AG about two weeks' later , the toll of accumulated fatigue notwithstanding or in spite of it ? By the way, for the AG team event in between , he can afford to take some rest by not playing every round.
Lol. Are you that delusional? He is 36, no way for him to be fully powered. I get it, you support Momota. No need to impose your on me. I have my own opinion. Looks like someone is being too elitist for everyone.
Two Momota matches in a week are too much for anyone especially with LCW condition (age and unfit at that time). Not to mention Momota was probably exhausted too in Indonesia Open when he played against LCW but yet he still managed to win it (his lying down on the court after winning proved how much energy that match had taken up both physically and mentally) and grabbed the title the next day. Hope LCW will get as much rest as he needs and fully recovers.
Also one thing I have noticed from both matches from where LCW lost to KM. Both of them had KM coming from behind in G1. Hmm, had LCW won G1, I guess it will be a repeat of MAS Open final. Shame that LCW is too old now, physically weak..
Sure, I am a Momota supporter, and I presume you are a fan of LCW's. That is fine; everyone has their favourite players. However, if your "fully-powered engine LCW" is a historical figure, then it is you who is "delusional". There is no point harking back to some glorious past. I actually thought that LCW was performing rather well recently; he certainly still poses a problem for Momota, ...albeit not an insurmountable one.
