Sudirman Cup 2003 analysis...

Discussion in 'Sudirman Cup 2003' started by kwun, Nov 18, 2002.

  1. kwun

    kwun Administrator

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    so here we are again, only a few months from the Sudirman Cup and World Championships. and all countries are now building up their armies in preparation. to talk about WC will be rather difficult, except China probably have 75% of winning WS (99% if they lock Camilla in the bathroom for the 5 day duration) and 85% of bagging the WD (99% if they lock Ra in the bathroom as well)

    anyhow, so i will skip the WC for now and let's talk about Sudirman Cup (SC). China has been the holder of the SC for the last what.. 4 times? it is a difficult feat to maintain their standard over all 5 discipline over 8 years. do we think they can do it again? in the past 4 times, China faced Indonesia twice in the final, and face Denmark and South Korea once.

    IMHO, the countries that have a good chance of winning the cup are:

    China
    Denmark
    Indonesia
    Korea

    let's talk about each one of them.

    Indonesia

    Indonesia strength (and weaknesses) hasn't changed much since 2 years ago. Indonesia has one of the strongest MD and MS players. with the recent resurgence of Taufik, Indonesia has a reasonably good chance in the MS events against any country. in MD, with the retirement of Tony, they have lost a valuable player in MD, while the pairings of Trikus/Halim/Bambang(?) are pretty decent players, the only pair who can match up with the strong Koreans are probably Candra/Sigit. however. C/S is going through a trough right now and hasn't been producing much results recently. good news is that they have 6 months to prepare and they have the ability to beat any team in the world. in mixed, with the retirement of Minarti, Trikus is now hopping partners. Trikus is still the best mixed player that Indonesia have and i hope that he will concentrate on the mixed event from now till SC. the problem with Indonesia however, is their women team. they don't have any WD/WS player who can be of threat to the other 3 nations, perhaps their WD can match up again Denmark, but for WS, they are just losing out. in order to win the SC, they will have to rely on their MS/MD/XD winning all their matches. that was a similar strategy that China used in the TC, however, one slip and they will be gone, like China did in the TC.

    Korea

    Korea's major strength throughout history is their MD. the pairing of Kim/Ha is capable of beat any other pairs in the world and their recent form and result confirms that they have recovered from the failures in the last WC and TC. in the past few years, Korea has slowly been building up strength in their MS, Lee Hyun Il is now among the most elite players and on a good day can be of a threat to all other countries. in WD, the fort is held by Ra Kyung Min and Lee Kyung Won. a pairing who recently resurgence has given the Chinese WD empire much headache. Ra being one of the best WD player also is threating everybody by partnering with Kim in XD. the pair of Kim/Ra is the strongest, most consistent and experienced amongst all the XD pairing in the world. Korea's WS offering hasn't been the strongest, however, recently a couple of players who surfaced has been showing some results. while paddling against the current when it comes to the Chinese and Danes, they have a good chance against the Indonesians if they do clash.

    China

    China the reigning SC holder is still among the favorites for the next SC. China strength comes from the ladies team. their WD has been terrorizing all other nations for years, although the invincible pairing of Ge/Gu retired a couple of years ago, they are replaced by an army of strong ladies forming 3 to 4 very strong pairs. while they were facing so strong resistence in the form of Ra/Lee (KOR) recently, they have restructured their pairings. perhaps that will give them fresh focus. similarly for WS, China has 3-4 player who can beat everyone else in the world without much sweat, except for Camilla (DEN). Camilla continues to be a big threat to China, with the retirement of GongZC last year, China no longer has a player who can reliably humiliate Camilla and GongZC did in the last SC (11-0/11-1). if China do face Denmark in the SC, the player will face immense pressure from both Camilla and the team to perform well. China's MS is very strong, Chen Hong who gained a crucial point in the past SC final against INA has grown much strong than before. Xia, while being less consistent and less fit then Chen, is also a strong candidate. China's golden XD pairing of Zhang/Gao was de-paired last year so Zhang can focus in MD for TC last year. now that TC is over, we are seeing this pair more often in international tournaments. they have shown their form by winning in the recent ABC, however, it is not of very clear indication as the strongest pairing in Asia - Kim/Ra wasn't there. the biggest problem with China however, is their MD. while they are fully aware of it and have reassigned coach Tang XinHu to be the head MD coach. Tang while being one of the best coach in the world, was only a MS coach and does he have enough experience and time to revive China's MD to the strength in the Li YongBo/Tang BingYi era? we haven't seen much results yet.

    Denmark

    the lone sailing European badminton nation Denmark is also a strong contender for the Cup. they have very strong potential to bring the SC first time ever to Europe. 3 1/2 yrs ago, Denmark came close to bagging the cup, but only to face the stronger nation China, they had to walk him with a 2nd place. like the other 3 countries, Denmark has their strength and weaknesses. in MS, two Peters resurface from their long injuries. Peter Gade took a break of one year plus while Peter Rasmussen (WC 1997) took nearly 3 years. Peter Gade has been the most consistent MS player in the 2 years before his injury. we will soon see if he can recover his previous form. in LS, Camilla has been consistently fighting her way through the Chinese army in major tournaments, and she will have no problems against player from any other nations. 3 yrs ago, Denmark lost the SC via their weaker MD pairing. however, in the past 3 years, Denmark has been hard at work in developing the MD players. a new batch of stronger, faster and erm... taller MD player has emerged and has been pressuring other nations. the most important part of all, is that while they come close to the INA and KOR pairings, they are stronger than what China has to offer. and that would potentially give them that crucial point that they missed last time if they were to face each other again. in XD, the experienced pair of Soggard and Olsen has splited and a couple new pairs has emerged. Jans and Mette was beating most pairings last year, they haven't shown much results lately, is a kick needed from their coach? Olsen is now partnering with our friend Jonas recently and they already produced good results in winning the Germany Open. with more preparation and with Olsen's vast experience, they will be a pair that all other teams will keep an eye on. Denmark's weakness however, is their WD. losing to Netherlands in the UC, they haven't improved much recently. the only nation in which they will have a chance is against INA, and they will certainly be destroyed by CHN and KOR.

    so as last time, the cup is open for grab and at this point, it will be very hard to predict who will be the ultimate winner. however, notably, Denmark has a much better chance this year to grab the cup for Europe than the past years. and Korea also. China while still strong, it strength isn't what it used to be and i think it will take work and determination for them to hold onto the SC for the 5th time. as for Indonesia, they will have to bank on a strong XD and some luck.
     
  2. JR

    JR Regular Member

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    Hi Kwun!!

    I was wondering if you could be interested in doing this kind of analysis on my fansite!!

    It would be great to have a fans view of things on the site!!

    Can I use this great analysis and refer it to you of course??

    Jonas
     
  3. kwun

    kwun Administrator

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    Jonas,

    you are welcomed to. and please state the source and a link back the original article?
     
  4. Winex West Can

    Winex West Can Regular Member

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    Good one, Kwun.

    I tend to agree with your assessment. Looking at Korea, I think their weakest link is the Men and Women Singles whereas their doubles teams are pretty strong.

    Denmark has a very good chance of reaching the final (if not winning) but it is all dependent on their Men Singles. As for the WS, all they have is Camilla going up against the strong Chinese women team. I think that they will probably do well in the MD, XD events.

    China is almost dominant in the Women events so if they can steal one in the Men events (most likely the MS), then it is very possible for them to retain the title.

    Indonesia is going to find it hard to reach the final with their weakest link being the women events and more so for Malaysia.

    Overall, I'm betting on a China-Denmark final.
     
  5. kwun

    kwun Administrator

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    Malaysia is not eligible for the cup. Malaysia is in group 2. they were only #5 in group 2 last time behind Thailand/Japan/Germany/Netherlands

    the 6 countries eligible for the cup are:

    China
    Korea
    Thailand (promoted from group 2)
    Denmark
    Indonesia
    England
     
  6. Bbn

    Bbn Regular Member

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    Interesting analysis.

    for the first time in many years China looks vulnerable in Sudirman Cp,

    Esp if up against Denmark.
     
  7. kwun

    kwun Administrator

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    indeed. look at the potential lineup of China against all other countries:

    vs. Denmark

    MS: ChenH vs. Gade
    WS: anybody vs. Camilla
    MD: Zhang/Zhang vs. Jonas/Paaske
    WD: ??/?? vs. ??/??
    XD: Zhang/Gao vs. Jens/Mette

    vs. Indonesia

    MS: ChenH vs. Taufik
    WS: anybody vs. anybody
    MD: Zhang/Zhang vs. Sigit/Candra
    WD: ??/?? vs. ??/??
    XD: Zhang/Gao vs. Trikus/Ermawati

    vs. Korea

    MS: ChenH vs. Lee
    WS: anybody vs. KimKR
    MD: Zhang/Zhang vs. Kim/Ha
    WD: Gao/Huang vs. Ra/Lee
    XD: Zhang/Gao vs. Kim/Ra

    i guess it is similar to last time, this this time, i think the winning potential is even smaller.
     
  8. Qidong

    Qidong Regular Member

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    I think China should still be the favorite and the potential score will be as follow.

    vs. Denmark

    MS: ChenH vs. Gade 1:0 (Gade is still not back to his top form)
    WS: anybody vs. Camilla 1:1 (they miss GZC)
    MD: Zhang/Zhang vs. Jonas/Paaske 1:2
    WD: ??/?? vs. ??/?? 2:2
    XD: Zhang/Gao vs. Jens/Mette 3:2

    vs. Indonesia

    MS: ChenH vs. Taufik 0:1 (Or that Sony guy who just beat
    bothTaufik and ChenH in ABC)
    WS: anybody vs. anybody 1:1
    MD: Zhang/Zhang vs. Sigit/Candra 1:2
    WD: ??/?? vs. ??/?? 2:2
    XD: Zhang/Gao vs. Trikus/Ermawati 3:2

    vs. Korea

    MS: ChenH vs. Lee 1:0
    WS: anybody vs. KimKR 2:0
    MD: Zhang/Zhang vs. Kim/Ha 2:1
    WD: Gao/Huang vs. Ra/Lee 3:1 (Can be another chance of another upset)
    XD: Zhang/Gao vs. Kim/Ra 3:2
     
  9. nauknip

    nauknip Regular Member

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    I think the Korean WS mustn't be taken lightly against. Li Mao had warned China in an interview that he is working hard on the Korean ladies and in time to come there will be a couple of them capable of toppling the Chinese.

    As for Ra, there have been rumours that she is thinking of retirement, at least in the XD. But then again, whoever the lady may be, so long as the other half of the pair is Kim Dong Moon, the others still don't have that great a chance.

    As for China, the MD would unlikely be Zhang/Zhang. I remember reading articles saying that Zhang Jun hasn't been improving, and they would rather him concentrate on XD. Zhang Wei is most likely to partner Chen Qiqiu, since Chen's partner Liu Yong has retired, or one of the younger players.

    As for their WD, we have seen that the reshuffling has indeed made some difference. The new pairing of Zhang Jiewen/Yang Wei defeated Gao Ling/Huang Sui in the ABC. If Zhang/Yang continue to perform well, Gao may just be involved in XD as well.
     
  10. viver

    viver Regular Member

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    China Mens singles. Think Bao Chun Lai is technically better than Chen Hong. Mentally he is still not as tough as Chen or Xia. If he improve this part I think he could be the #1 player. Still have not seen Lin Dan play so don't know about him. Given this I wouldn't say that Chen Hong would be the one playing for China in Sudirman cup.
     
  11. Winex West Can

    Winex West Can Regular Member

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    Entries for Sudiman Cup released

    The list of participating countries was released and Canada was not one of them. According to rumours, Badminton Canada has no funding to send a team. Sad, isn't it.
     
  12. Adel

    Adel Regular Member

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    WOW! We are already starting on S-Cup analyses... it is going to be held in Eindhoven, Holland - no?

    Felt just like yesterday when I was watching the 2001 edition and bracing myself to come to the States!

    Anyway, great analysis Kwun. Haven't got anything better to add in the meantime except tt in 2001, Korea didn't play Kim and Ha but opted for Lee and Yoo instead. Of course, they were thrashed by Tony and Candra. I'm pretty sure they don't stand much of a chance against Candra and Sigit either (sadly!). It must be very tiring for Ra and Kim BOTH to play in 2 events. That's madness really - which was why I think they opted for the Lee/Yoo pairing last yr. Were probably also counting on the MS or LS to take a point - which didn't happen.

    But why am I living in the past? DUH.

    Anyway, I remain - as I always am - an Indonesia-cum-Korea supporter. But there's sth in me this time that wants Denmark to take it just because...

    Watch out for the Korean WS. Kim Kyeung Ran, Jun Jae Youn and this other gal Kwon Hee Seok are supposedly promising. And of course, like Nauknip mentioned, they have the great Li Mao who worked wonders on their men's side already.

    Sigh, it's times like this when I wished I was back in Asia...
     
  13. Hugo

    Hugo Regular Member

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    In regards to SC, I think China can realistically count on their XD to bring in the 3rd point if need be. Zhang Jun/Gao Lin have started to flame up again and are regaining the form that allowed to them to win 2001 WC. They have won at the last 2 tourneys they participated(China Open, JVC Asian Championships). Also, Chen Qiqiu/Zhao Tingting are playing good shuttle lately. Making it to finals of China Open and winning Thai Open.

    With that said, anybody think Bao Chunlai will recover from knee surgery by SC time?? I certainly hope so, but not that Chen Hong couldn't his opposition or anything! Certainly not!!
     
  14. Pecheur

    Pecheur Regular Member

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    Two months later, and two months closer to the Cup, how does it look?

    As far as I can gather the MS is probably the least predictable of any event as both Chen Hong and Gade both seem very fit, and in good form, with Taufik in good form, but he's unpredictable because he's Taufik ;P

    China, may still be the slight favourites, but looking through the analysis, and giving scores using decimals (this may look a little confusing) I see it as:

    vs. Denmark

    MS: ChenH vs. Gade 0.5:0.5
    WS: anybody vs. Camilla 0.75:1.25 (Camilla has 75% chance of winning)
    MD: ??/Zhang vs. Jonas/Paaske 1:2 (ZhangJ may just play mixed)
    WD: ??/?? vs. ??/?? 2:2
    XD: Zhang/Gao vs. Jens/Mette 2.75:2.25

    Very close, though, if Zhang and Gao keep playing, I can't see either of the two Danish pairs matching up with them. In other words this will probably come down to Gade and Chen Hong, China will win XD and WD (I can't see them coming close to losing either), Denmark will most likely win WS and MD, so whoever wins MS will most likely win this matchup. Of course if Camilla loses then Denmark in really bad shape.

    vs. Indonesia

    MS: ChenH vs. Taufik 0.5:0.5
    WS: anybody vs. anybody 1.5:0.5
    MD: ??/Zhang vs. Sigit/Candra 1.5:1.5
    WD: ??/?? vs. ??/?? 2.5:1.5
    XD: Zhang/Gao vs. Trikus/Ermawati 3.25:1.75

    More clean cut, China almost guaranteed WS, WD, most likely XD, so should win this quite convincingly as shown by score.

    vs. Korea

    MS: ChenH vs. Lee 0.75:0.25
    WS: anybody vs. KimKR 1.75:0.25
    MD: ??/Zhang vs. Kim/Ha 1.75:1.25
    WD: ??/?? vs. Ra/Lee 2.5:1.5
    XD: ZhangJ/Gao vs. Kim/Ra 2.75:2.25

    China still favourite, but still very close, with potential upset. Lee on his day could beat Chen Hong, which would give Korea the win. China will give WS, but that's all that's guaranteed, Korea will win MD, but the rest is in doubt. I think China will win MS and WD, but could lose both.

    If Z/G play well, they could beat K/R, especially if they are tired from doubles. However there are a few fun possibilities.
    1. KOR plays Lee and Yoo instead of Kim and Ha in the MD since I'd expect they;d win anyway, and this way they get to rest Kim for XD (I think this is quite likely).
    2. KOR ceeds the WD and rests Ra as well, I wouldn't want to be Z/G facing a fully rested Kim/Ra (I don't think this is as likely).

    So China v Denmark or Korea should be great matches, can't wait.
     
    #14 Pecheur, Jan 12, 2003
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2003
  15. Hugo

    Hugo Regular Member

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    Good assessment of matches, Pecheur, except I have to disagree on China's WS vs. Camilla Martin. I think it should be 50-50 at max, in favor of Camilla. She has on different occasions last year, been beaten by Dai Yun, Zhang Ning, Xie Xing Fan, and Hu Ting. I think China has a large number of choices to pick from in matching Camilla, all of which have had some previous success against her.
    But as everybody have discussed, the three closest contenders would be China, Korea, and Denmark in any particular order. Against Denmark, if PG loses to Chen H, then Denmark are in a tough position. If CM loses to whomever, then they are also in deep. Against Korea, if China's MS or WS loses, then they are in trouble.
    In a Denmark vs Korea matchup, Denmark has very strong potential to win both singles games, and then should be able to take at least 1 of 3 doubles.

    Arrgh, still two months away and I'm already giddy in my pants for all the action to begin!!!!
     
  16. Pecheur

    Pecheur Regular Member

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    I probably should have posted my thoughts about the other matchups for fairness, but didn't think of it at the time.

    Demark v Korea
    It really comes down to KimDM, but if he's fine, I really can't see Denmark winning any of the doubles. Kim/Ha are much better than any pair in the world bar Candra/Sigit, Korean WD is stronger than Denmark's by a large margin, and Kim/Ra are still the best/most consistent XD in the world.

    Most likely Korea 3:2, unless Kim DM injured/over played.

    Denmark v Indo
    MS: Can't split Taufik and Gade, whichever has a good day.
    MD: Candra and Sigit, no problems
    WS: Camilla
    WD: Toss up, neither country has strong WD
    XD: Again a toss up.

    This is really hard to split, 3 rubbers could go either way. I think marginally Denmark, but wouldn't put money on it.

    Indo v Korea
    MS: Taufik most likely, however a. it's Taufik, and b. Lee does have potential to win
    MD: Dunno, however I do want to watch C/S v K/H, potentially best doubles match ever.
    WS: Camilla
    WD: Korea
    XD: Korea.

    I call this about even too, I think I'm leaning towards Korea, but really close.

    Strange it appears the other countries are quite close, with only China holding a slight edge overall IMO (yes I had to go through this analysis to work this out ;)).
     
    #16 Pecheur, Jan 13, 2003
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2003
  17. Yong

    Yong Regular Member

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    Countries in groups 2-7

    Group 2:
    Malaysia, Germany, Ukraine, Sweden, Hongkong, Taiwan, Netherlands and Japan

    Groep 3:
    Russia, Norway, Finland, USA, India, Scotland, Austria and Wales.

    Groep 4:
    Spain, Poland, Iceland, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Belgium and France.

    Groep 5:
    Israel, Sri Lanka, Peru, Slovenia, Kazachstan, Slovakia, Portugal and South Africa.

    Groep 6:
    Greenland, Hongaria, Australia, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Greece, Lithuania and Estonia

    Groep 7:
    Armenia, Turkey, Faroer Islands, Gibraltar, Suriname, Ireland, Letland and Jamaica.
     
  18. timeless

    timeless Regular Member

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    I wouldn't mind seeing some major upsets to keep some countries/players humble...

    Like two Jamaican rastas in MD, with dreadlocks, and bright yellow, green, and black attire, pounding it down past MD teams from China or something... hehehe wouldn't that be a sight. Yaw mon!
    I still remember how much I loved watching a MD match featuring underdogs Brazil beating Norway at the 2002 Canadian Open.
     
  19. cooler

    cooler Regular Member

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    :) it's great to see people here taking sides already. Too bad north american TV network is locked in the bathroom;)
     
  20. TOmike

    TOmike Regular Member

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    lets keep it in the bedroom/bathroom ;)
     

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