Well, any scientific model is based on assumptions. Let me first assume something, then give you all the resulting probabilities for every team winning the Sudirman Cup. 1) Assume only China, Korea, Denmark and Indonesia are capable to win. 2) Assume China vs Korea: MS: 55% : 45% LS: 90% : 10% MD: 45% : 55% LD: 90% : 10% XD: 50% : 50% Calculation: therefore as a whole team China:Korea = 80.1% : 19.9% 3) Assume China vs Denmark: MS: 50% : 50% LS: 60% : 40% MD: 55% : 45% LD: 95% : 5% XD: 60% : 40% Calculation: therefore as a whole Chinaenmark = 75.775% : 24.225% 4) Assume China vs Indonesia: MS: 60:40 LS: 95:5 MD: 30:70 LD: 95:5 XD: 55:45 Calculation: therefore as a whole China:Indonesia = 83.43475% : 16.56525% 5) Assume Denmark vs Indonesia MS: 60:40 LS: 95:5 MD: 10:90 LD: 70:30 XD: 40:60 Calculation: Denmark:INA = 61.516% : 38:484% 6)Assume Denmark vs Korea MS: 60:40 LS: 90:10 MD: 30:70 LD: 50:50 MD: 40:60 Calculation: Denmark:Korea = 57.6% : 42.4% 7)Assume Korea vs Indonesia MS: 55:45 LS: 60 : 40 MD: 30 : 70 LD: 70 : 30 XD: 50 : 50 Calculation: Korea:INA = 55.925% : 44.075% Predictions based on calculation: Group A: China's and Korea's chances for 1st position: 80.1% and 19.9% Group B: Denmark and Indonesia: 61.516% : 38:484% Therefore for the semifinal matchup China vs INA and Denmark vs Korea, Chance: 56.9291076% China vs Denmark and INA vs Korea, Chance: 43.0708924% Chances for teams entering the final: China: 80.14% Korea: 48.74% (korea takes the advanatage of the good draw) Denmark: 42.71% Indonesia: 28.41% Chances for Sudirman cup: China: 62.97% Denmark: 15.84% Korea: 12.49% INA: 8.70% Ok, if you disagree, just disagree my assumptions, give out your assumptions instead, Calculation should be ok.
In this kind of situation assumptions are not necessary. Agreed that China has best chance to win for the simple reason that they would, barring the very unforeseen, take both the ladies' rubbers i.e. LS & LD against any other country. This means that they have only one more rubber to win. They have Chen Hong , Xinpeng or Xuanze in the MS. Zhang/Zhang in the MD & Zhang/Gao in the XD.The chances for their losing all these three rubbers in a row to any other country are indeed slim, going by the theory of probabilities. Hence China has best chance to win the S-Cup.
