HIV has been with us for many years. How it's transmitted is well understood. although to this day we still have no cure, we know how to cope. Unless you need blood transfusion (which should already have been screened by now), share needles, have new *** partner(s), your risk is minimal. Again, can we proclaim we know how SARS is spread? It's one thing that a test is not 100% effective. It's another if the test is completely ineffective. In between is a wide range. Sure, the methods (questionaires, and temperature checks) are cheap alright. But IMHO they also have questionable effectiveness. While I've no objection to this measure, I do question the wisdom of relying on them though. Well put. You already said it's in the initial stage. So, why not have a bit more patience? It's not life imprisonment, is it? I believed that's exactly what happened here in U.S. immediately after 9/11. Airports were literally shut down, albeit shortly. That's, until counter-measures were put in place. Furthermore, traffics were cut down naturally since people automatically cancel their non-essential travel plans. As for Olympics, well, everything has a price/priority. No kidding. Someone might have made a decision for you how much your life is worth. It depends on the SARS situation as we get closer to Olympics time. Everything has its first time, I'm NOT rejecting the possibility of someone canceling Olympics altogether, do you? If this does happen, I believe this would be its first time in history? Hmm... You lost me here. Are you talking about the questions on those screening questionaires? This is just as saying everyone would die some day. Apparently, the insurance company has a slightly different idea using Actuarial Science. You don't need to apologize. As long as we don't resort to launching personal attacks, and just stick with "things", okay? But the idea of this screening is flawed... It admits the possibility of infection among some individuals. By the time he is screened out (based on development of symptoms), countless other may have be infected by him alone. To play Devil's Advocate, even if we've definitive diagnostic test, as long as it's not instantaneous, we'd have logistic nightmare. A person that gets a negative test result may be infected after the test was conducted but before the test was published. Hence he'd be free, by mistake. Why do you keep coming back to compare with HIV? Can you please establish the argument that this is an "apple to apple" comparison? What information? But SARS doesn't have to be eradicated. Furthermore, is it too early to surrender? Common cold is pretty much harmless. That may explain practically no resources are put into research a cure for it. Given high enough a profile and financial rewards, you could see talent emerges. Is there any intrinsic reason why we can't deal with coronavirus? Maybe because of SARS, we end up having vaccine for Common Cold also Of course, act/pretend as if nothing has happened is one way to cope. But it seems too early to fall hopeless.
Re: Re: Kia-su, Kia-si, Kia-sars!!! Ever wonder why companies choose to do so, despite the fact that is gonna cost them opportunities, hard $$, delivery schedule? Why can't they implement daily health check, and send people out as usual, or invite the Chinese/Asian customers over instead?
We're talking about chances here. As traveling frequency increases, the chance SARS is spread would simply increase. If it hasn't happened yet, perhaps it's just a question of time. Ever thought about the logic of smokers. Some of these people may argue "I've been smoking for some 30 years... or someone has been smoking for his whole life, and yet he lived to 80 something... So smoking can't be dangerous" What would you be thinking when someone gives you such an argument? You and Colin have repeatedly made such comments. I believe perhaps your bravery has been misplaced. To be sensible and not attend major gatherings that drastically increase your chance of infection at this early stage when not much help can offer you, I think it's just wise and be responsible (to yourself, your loved ones, and to other people). I'd call it a period of observation/caution. It doesn't mean we can't go anywhere at all. You perhaps had made a sweeping generalization here - "To not show up in SOME places is equivalent to not show up in ALL places". Does this sound right? You got the first part right. Yes, I'm an engineer (EE) by training and by profession. But your 2nd part is off base. Engineers like hard facts. But they also like probability. The latter is a technique commonly used in quality control, quantitative analysis, and design works. The wireless network your cell phone calls go through, the data network you hooked up to, the telephone switch you connected to, all have a lot to do with Statistics that we engineers need to use/touch/consider. So, Cheung, perhaps I use/think/know more Statistics than you realize After hearing your verdicts, as well as that of Colin, I'm becoming somewhat concern about the Health Care system in H.K., as well as my own well being here, now that I can't escape dealing with some medical doctors in my life ;-)
I suspect WHO is under a lot of political pressure not to be the "bad" guy. Just look at the reaction from Canada, when WHO gave travel advisory alert on Toronto. The travel advisory alert is perhaps more like stock analysts recommendation. Ever wonder how you can make any $$ with their recommendations? They tell you to "strong" buy when the stock has already peaked, and "hold" when the stock is heading to bottom.
Some references What the "Experts" say: Psycologists say people tend to hear what they want to hear. The following are what I hear. What about you? "In a case where you don't understand the true risks, you must take maximum measures," David Heymann, head of WHO's communicable diseases unit said. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...515/hl_afp/health_sars_who_blood_030515144911 "We can only sleep well when the whole world is rid of this virus or more likely a vaccine is available. That will take years," said Khaw Boon Wan, a [Singapore] cabinet minister who is the head of a task force to tackle SARS. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030515/hl_nm/sars_hospital_dc_1 ''Most of the other travel health risks we deal with are well known,'' notes Bradley Connor, incoming president of the travel medical society. ''Yes, there are changes and resistance to medications, but these are things we're able to keep up with and have a pretty good handle on. Emerging infectious diseases, by definition, catch us by surprise. ''It's better to err on the side of caution. If we're overreacting and someone cancels a trip because of it, that's bad. But it's worse if we didn't act and put someone in harm's way of contracting a serious and potentially lethal disease.'' http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/usatoday/20030509/en_usatoday/5144657 "...a majority of the IBF Executive Board felt on balance that a postponement was the responsible decision. " http://www.worldbadminton.net/getstory.asp?id=835 Points to Ponder Think about the following: Number one on the list So far, no one tell me if IBF can enforce the health check at all points of departure or even point of entry. Done by a doctor, can you believe that BEIJING - A doctor with the SARS (news - web sites) virus has been arrested for allegedly violating a quarantine and starting an outbreak that infected more than 100 people in a northern Chinese city, police said Thursday, in the first known arrest for spreading the flu-like disease. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030515/ap_on_he_me/sars_doctor_arrested_2 WASHINGTON - Keeping SARS (news - web sites) from spreading in the United States is straining the already besieged public health system, and it's partly a matter of luck that this newest killer so far has been contained here. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030513/ap_on_he_me/sars_public_health_6 Some border Shutting is already happening. MOSCOW (AFP) - Russia diagnosed its first case of SARS (news - web sites) and took emergency steps to prevent the killer epidemic spilling over from China, with a threatened ban on flights and restrictions across the vast land border. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20030508/hl_afp/health_sars_russia_030508165600 What Children Do Children always like to do this trick - if there's something they want, they'd ask their mom(dad) first. If they don't get what they want, they'd ask their dad(mom). If WC is the only one that is NOT canceled while ALL other sports are canceled, would people ask why WC is NOT canceled? Most likely, they would still maintain all these other sport organizations had made a terrible mistake. Role of WHO It seems WHO may be under a lot of political pressure to give travel advisory alert on any city/countries - look at recent objection from Canada. What is WHO actually afraid of? Information may not be available to all countires - No data or info. to Taiwan as it's not part of U.N. "If we could have support from the WHO, we would not lose so many lives and we wouldn't need to quarantine so many people." Taiwan was ousted from the United Nations (news - web sites) in 1971 and was replaced by China. Diagnostic Test: Developed by Artus in collaboration with the Bernhard-Nocht-Institute for Tropical Medicine (BNI) in Hamburg, Germany, the test was introduced by Artus in April to countries in Asia and Europe and has been provided to laboratories under the direction of the World Health Organization (WHO) and other major clinical sites conducting studies on the SARS virus. Initial results of different sample types (sputum, swabs, stool and tissue) from these WHO laboratories are promising. The test is based on a highly sensitive technology known as polymerase chain reaction (PCR), which directly detects the virus in patient samples, and produces results in two hours. see http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030515/cgth034_1.html
So, I take it you think we should stop sporting events for the years it will take to find a cure for Coronavirus infection. Tell me a country in which the health system it doesn't claim itself bursting at the seams If really travel is so bad, why aren't all passenger flights and international flights stopped now. Includes those between nonSARS countries as somebody (not me) has pointed out that there is even a risk of people transmitting infection in transit. If WHO is advising maximal measures, why isn't the majority of the population wearing a N95/N100 mask going out. In particular, are you going out at all? Have you avoided meeting people and crowded places because of atypical pneumonia (under WHO advice)? It's not the job of the IBF to enforce screening at borders. That's a job for immigration. I recommended daily checks for all the delegation for the WC should it have proceeded. Do you think that is an irresponsible action? Countries affected by SARS are reacting hard. Infectious diseases come and go. It wouldn't be surprising if Coronavirus made another comeback within the year. How long are you going to wait for? Your Chinese doctor should have known better. Bad apples will tend to make headlines. It was a doctor form China who was the index case for HK. Professional badminton players don't work in hospitals..as far as I know. What Moscow did is what they did for their country. Other countries haven't done it. Not really sure on your point about children..... You have to ask the WHO about their political pressures. I am in no way able to give a comment on that. The PCR test is also known to show up negative when a person has the virus. (false negative). Initial results are not definitive tests. Here's what the WHO site says: The point on increased frequency with travel is correct. That is the point of screening. Now if you not satisfied with the measures in place already by the immigration departments, why have you not expressed disatisfaction at those systems as travel is still occurring. There's an implicit meaning in your statement and can be viewed as a personal attackl I strongly invite you to retract that statement. You have your choice in which doctors you want to see and don't want to see. One can consider that different doctors have differing opinions, even in the US. you misinterpreted the statement. Not the inital stages of disease pattern and spread. The inital stages of infection of an individual. Private companies can do those other checks as well. Mentioning the risk of terrorism, sorry for not being clear, that was referring to the baseline risk of terrorism. Even when on 'alert' for possible activities, are flights being stopped? I don't want to go further with this part because then we start deviating too far away. I do believe every person will die someday in their lifetime! But your genetic material can survive.......... Well, no screening test is perfect. I take your point. But if it really is so ineffectual why bother setting this up as some of our Asian countries have done. And the cross country transmission is very low (now the disease entity has been discovered and we know more about it) I get the impression from BFer's that coronavirus has to be eradicated totally. Low as possible risk, right? Apologies if I misinterpreted that. There was a centre in UK that had a lot of resources put in to look for a cure for the common cold. Don't know what happened to the project but there doesn't seem to be a cure now. Granted that certain drugs are available now that weren't available then.... HIV is a RNA virus...so is coronavirus, as is Hep A, Hep C, Hep G. Apologies, Hep B is a DNA virus. The extra information I was referring to is the information we have gained over the last couple of months. Finally, I like to add I never stated or acted like everything was hunkydory with SARS and that there was/is no danger. I have always maintained the WC could have gone ahead with proper screening and checks on delegates. WHO and British health authorities did not say the WC had to be cancelled. That was a decision made by the IBF. Going by the opinion of WHO and British health authorities, my view seems to be consistent with theirs... (sorry about the disjointed answers - I just couldn't face cutting out and pasting everything so just tried to do it with the points which are less clear) FYI, something on mass gatherings, but a bit late. http://www.who.int/csr/sars/guidelines/gatherings/en/
just one last point. there are always going to be differing views and stances on this. This is only natural considering that human beings have different tolerances according to factors like education, upbringing, personal values etc. I think we've probably gone through the main issues involved. The fact is the IBF took a very conservative stance. A cavalier approach would be one with no precautions. There is also a middle ground. There are always pros and cons of each side. Many times, we have to choose practicality. Sometimes, practicalities are sacrificed. Other times, main objectives in projects are reached with many different solutions. Here we see an example, different solutions to the same problem. No-one is right or wrong. Both can be correct... Thanks. This will probably be my last statement on this thread
I, too, would like to post a final word on this thread. Cheung and I have both personally treated SARS patients in HK and we are both well aware of the risks and serious consequences of a SARS infection. As a matter of fact, I am sad to have recently lost a medical colleague at my previous hospital to SARS, and now have just heard that another ICU colleague has been diagnosed with SARS, too..... So believe me when I say I am fully aware of the risks involved. All I am saying is that the general public should be aware that the risk of getting SARS is not high unless you are a health care worker or have cared for someone with SARS. Fortunately the virus needs close contact for transmission, otherwise the whole of HK (or for that matter all of China) would have come down with it by now. All I am pleading for is for common sense and that we do not allow irrational fear to prevail. Fear and paranoid will lead discrimination against innocent people and does not help in the battle against SARS. And this will be a long war, as SARS will be with us for a long long time, just like HIV. We all have to live with the fact that SARS is not going away soon and will have to adapt our lifestyles to cope accordingly. So does this mean that the WC must be indefinitely postponed until the SARS virus is completely eliminated and there is therefore zero risk of transmission? Of course not, the rational response is that we have to deal with it by instituting adequate screening procedures as recommended by the health authorities and allowing the event to proceed. You cannot have your cake and eat it, too, by allowing air travel and business contacts between SARS affected regions and the UK, for example, and then not allowing the WC to proceed in Birmingham. This decision doesn’t make sense to me at all. Anyway, I am glad that we all have had an opportunity to air our views in this forum. Funny thing is I came here to check out the views of fellow badminton fanatics on purely badminton issues, like getting tips on my lousy backhand, and never expected to post anything on SARS at all.... In the end, we can agree to disagree, but I hope no one takes anything I have posted personally.
No, that's not what I propose. The outbreak just happened "yesterday". I'm just saying we should take a breather before we rush into anything longer term. But I don't think we should pretend nothing has happened either. I think we're trying to control the risk, which may or may not materialize. The topic of this thread is about badminton and IBF's decision. In all due respects, as much as I like/enjoy the sports, it doesn't pass the risk/reward analysis; of course, it's a very personal subjective one. No one (I believe) in this forum could have any influences, directly or otherwise, on travel policy of any government. Shutting down borders/flights is already happening in some countries (see Russia). Others used more liberated approach. In order to travel to another country, I suppose one usually needs a visa. Perhaps the visa approval process has changed, such that less people can get a tourist visa these days. Do we have any visibility in this arena in visa control? If I were in H.K., Taiwan, China etc, I probably would. And I think a lot of people (as shown on TV) in those localities are already wearing ones. Yes, I'm still going out. And yes, I along with my family, have already avoided going to certain places, especially crowded places. That's precisely my point. IBF can't make decision based on things they can't control. And don't forget that, as time goes by, this SARS situation may get better or worse, but IBF had to make a decision something like 2-3 weeks ago, when the whole SARS thing is at this "peak". And I believe it's a postponement as opposed to cancellation - IBF is taking a "Wait and See" attitude. Personally, I'd not take those checks too seriously, that is until I learn more about their adequacy. Personally, waiting for another year or two is just fine with me. Researchers are working on this day and night already. We should give them some time to bear fruits. Your focus is primarily on the hospitals, which is understandable, as they're related to your profession. But what happens to those patients before they're checked into the hospitals? Or checked out of the hosiptals for that matter (given the virus could be in their bodies for up to a month)? Not yet. I was trying to make a point that people (probably myself included) tend to look for "evidence" that support their own views, and ignore everything else. Just like the kids - all they need is one of the parents supporting their wants. This comment is directed at the comment about different decisions made by different sporting organizations, and people are taking their own picks to support their arguments. Majority doesn't always translate to "Right" decision. We need to assess situations on their own merits. Just because everybody is wrong in something doesn't make that something right - although I won't go so far to say all these sport organizations had made terrible mistakes, as we had already argued this point before. I'd accept imperfect solutions . I'm more concerns about the unnecessary loss of lives as well as economic fallouts. However, between 0-100%, other than 100% everything else is imperfect. When evaluating any measures, is it closer to 0% or to 100%? We've already drifted off-topic . Beside, if my bringing up all the "imperfections" in the travel inspection policy is not enough a statement about my dissatisfaction at those systems, I don't know what else I can say... Yes, I'd pick up your invitation and retract that statement. I do hope that you and Colin don't bring up again the sweeping statement that says "people taking a cautious stance should hide in toilets in fear, etc"... The difference, again, is in the efficacy of the counter-measures. I believe today we have a better system to fight terrorists than to fight SARS (at least as far as airport safety is concerned). Along this line, I'd like to make one parting comment - just because something bad hasn't happened this far doesn't mean it won't happen in the near future, if we know/assert that there's a flaw somewhere in the system. Prior to 911, we all know the airport security is flawed, yet nothing was done, until it's too late. Now that traveling continues with what I view as defective screening process, I'd cross my fingers and see how things work out.... Interesting. I never thought much about my genetic material... Desperate situations often times drive people to adopt desperate measures, even though those measures may not be effective at all. But I do hope I'm wrong here. We'd have a better idea over time. Life goes on... Regardless of the outcome of this fight against SARS, all decisions in the future should be risk/reward driven, I believe. One can view IBF's decision in a more positive light - it's called initiative, something welcome in corporate environment . On another note, what if WHO and British Heath authorities did advise stopping the events? The focal point of all these arguments would probably shift one level, but we probably would still go throught similar points. This goes back to my "Childern" analogy. Silence of WHO and British Health authorities are treated as a blessing. Beside, I see at IBF website that there're countries withdrawing from WC. I suppose they won't be China, or Indonesia or any of the top players (maybe except Danmark). We don't really know how many withdrawals. So here remains the question of participation too. Anyhow, I think you're right. We spent enough time talking about this issue that we as BF'er can't do nothing to change. I do appreciate that everyone participated remained civilized . Now back to other threads....
this thread has become an unproductive rathole. i am closing it. the original intent was to see how many people are for and against cancelling of the WC, and from the poll result, we have a pretty clear split.
