Did IBF make the correct decision in postponing the World Championships?
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Loh
Regular Member
England may not have experienced the SARS outbreak as some other unfortunate countries such as Singapore and Hong Kong, but if Birmingham were to go ahead with the scheduled WC, England will be exposed to the virus from visitors and possibly players of SARS infected countries. It was the "open" free travel policy that brought both S'pore, HK and other countries to their present calamity. Initially, we thought that the virus can be contained and therefore were more relaxed. Not until the number of cases snowballed and more deaths occured.
As Bbn has just hightlighted, the virus has a 4-day lifespan and will not be able to recognize whether you are a world-class badminton player and therefore should be avoided. The virus attacks everybody - young and old, strong and weak.
Postpone the WC I agree, before anything untoward happens and brings a bad name to World Badminton, the IBF and England. Human lives are too precious to be taken away innocently. No amount of money or profits can bring happiness back to SARs affected families if deaths continue to mount. Not until we know more about this much-dreaded disease and find a solution to defeat it.
As Bbn has just hightlighted, the virus has a 4-day lifespan and will not be able to recognize whether you are a world-class badminton player and therefore should be avoided. The virus attacks everybody - young and old, strong and weak.
Postpone the WC I agree, before anything untoward happens and brings a bad name to World Badminton, the IBF and England. Human lives are too precious to be taken away innocently. No amount of money or profits can bring happiness back to SARs affected families if deaths continue to mount. Not until we know more about this much-dreaded disease and find a solution to defeat it.
Sigh, it's not a case of 'will be exposed to virus'. It has already happened!! Other countries have had open travel policy and do not have the widespread situation occuring. Please be rational. I might like to add that there are many people travelling around, and yet, we have not seen the widespread snowballing effect as initially first feared.
There are four main areas to control this disease so far:
1) hospitals - that means stringent infection control and very restricted visiting rights
2) travel - health checks including temperature.
3) personal hygiene
4) frequent cleaning with bleach/disinfectants
As I recommended before, health and temperature checks should be instituted if the WC had gone ahead. It could have taken place, if reasonable precuations had been instituted - and no, that does not mean wearing a surgical mask.
How many people in S'pore, M'sia, Toronto do you see wearing a surgical mask outside hospital?
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Re: IBF over reacted
To me, "over-reacting" is much better than "no react".
As for now, SARS is almost "unstoppable" (w/o no proper medicine, operation, procedures to deal with). With such a big events (international), while gathering thousands of athletes, coaches, and fans, is surely putting UK and the ppl into much higher risk.
As a baddy fan, it's of course very sad to me to see such an even got postponded. However, is it really worth to put thousands (and possibly "snowballed" later on) lives in risk? No, not at all. Plus, there's a big chance, a lot of top players, coaches, and die hard fans won't dare to show up anyway. Who wants to be sentenced to dead, just for a trophy 2 months ealier? Excuse me for an example. Say, u r watching the intensive games. However, one fan (to be more scary, say, looks like asian) kinda kept coughing next to u? What's ur reaction? Leave asap? Or, just think, "nah, regular flu or allergy???" Surely somehow get bothered a little bit, and won't be able to fully enjoy the events, right?
For the "health" part, the research shows SARS acting less dangerous on young children than adults. Therefore, the majority crew (95%+) are the "high risk" range. Also, if doctors (at least 1 in TH and another one in HK or TW already) and nurses who are experts dealing with diseases, and have all the access to facilities and medicines could be infacted and killed, then good healty athletes won't be an exception, either.
To me, "over-reacting" is much better than "no react".
As for now, SARS is almost "unstoppable" (w/o no proper medicine, operation, procedures to deal with). With such a big events (international), while gathering thousands of athletes, coaches, and fans, is surely putting UK and the ppl into much higher risk.
As a baddy fan, it's of course very sad to me to see such an even got postponded. However, is it really worth to put thousands (and possibly "snowballed" later on) lives in risk? No, not at all. Plus, there's a big chance, a lot of top players, coaches, and die hard fans won't dare to show up anyway. Who wants to be sentenced to dead, just for a trophy 2 months ealier? Excuse me for an example. Say, u r watching the intensive games. However, one fan (to be more scary, say, looks like asian) kinda kept coughing next to u? What's ur reaction? Leave asap? Or, just think, "nah, regular flu or allergy???" Surely somehow get bothered a little bit, and won't be able to fully enjoy the events, right?
For the "health" part, the research shows SARS acting less dangerous on young children than adults. Therefore, the majority crew (95%+) are the "high risk" range. Also, if doctors (at least 1 in TH and another one in HK or TW already) and nurses who are experts dealing with diseases, and have all the access to facilities and medicines could be infacted and killed, then good healty athletes won't be an exception, either.
Re: Re: IBF over reacted
I understand your concern about the lack of a cure for SARS, but again I will stick to my initial assertion that this is an over reaction. If the authorities are so concerned about the spread of SARS in UK, then why not cancel the football (soccer) matches where thousands of people gather in very vocal support of their teams? Another point is that the badminton WC is not the Olympics so I doubt if "thousands" of athletes will turn up.
The doctors and nurses who were infected were in direct and very close contact with confirmed SARS patients in intensive care, and most were infected in the early stages of the outbreak before much was known about the transmission of the virus. There is no comparison of this scenario with attending a sports event in a country where SARS is NOT a major health problem. Again, I say this is an over reaction!
I understand your concern about the lack of a cure for SARS, but again I will stick to my initial assertion that this is an over reaction. If the authorities are so concerned about the spread of SARS in UK, then why not cancel the football (soccer) matches where thousands of people gather in very vocal support of their teams? Another point is that the badminton WC is not the Olympics so I doubt if "thousands" of athletes will turn up.
The doctors and nurses who were infected were in direct and very close contact with confirmed SARS patients in intensive care, and most were infected in the early stages of the outbreak before much was known about the transmission of the virus. There is no comparison of this scenario with attending a sports event in a country where SARS is NOT a major health problem. Again, I say this is an over reaction!
Errrr, I've refrained from voting so far because I'm not really sure what I feel. On one hand, of course I want the tourney to go on as I've been waiting so long for this(and silently cheering for CH and XXZ as well). On the other, it would be a tremendous blow to the game if players fell ill, especially if they included my favorites. I just hope SARS is solved quickly and international baddy schedule gets right back on track. Still no vote yet though...
Loh
Regular Member
Like Lazybuddy and others, I still prefer "prevention is better than cure" and to err on the side of caution.
Cheung has made a strong case of putting in place the number of preventive measures to combat and isolate Sars and indeed many more countries have been advised by WHO to put them into action. But, despite so-called expert advice and such measures being adopted, Sars still persists.
As Sars originated from China and the Chinese are almost at every nook and corner of the world, it would appear that no country can be immuned from it. Europe has the least number of cases and no deaths so far (Britian has 6 and even faraway NZ has one), but for how long can this situation remain is left to be seen. Not only must the government be resolute in implementing WHO measures but the people must be disciplined enough to adhere to set rules to ensure that there is no leakage. With people breaking quarantine orders and going about infecting others, there will be no end to the problem, as is reported to be rampant in China!
Even Taiwan, which should have benefitted from the experience of other Sars-infected countries since Sars invaded her shores only recently, is now getting a serious case of Sars outbreak which shows no signs of abating. Sars cases have tripled to 116 in just under 2 weeks and with 2 more deaths yesterday, the death toll has swelled to 10. And the main reason is that there was rampant violation of quarantine orders.
What would have been the scenario like at Birmingham? You can't prevent badminton fanatics from the Asian countries from attending the WC. The spectator numbers may be smaller but all you need is one Sars carrier to cause untold misery to others should he succeed in infecting them. Remember, you may have excellent preventive measures in place, but human behaviour may not be ideal. Then the Sars cases in the UK may no longer be in single digit any more. In fact, even without the WC, the numbers will increase.
So, why invite trouble if you can avoid it?
Cheung has made a strong case of putting in place the number of preventive measures to combat and isolate Sars and indeed many more countries have been advised by WHO to put them into action. But, despite so-called expert advice and such measures being adopted, Sars still persists.
As Sars originated from China and the Chinese are almost at every nook and corner of the world, it would appear that no country can be immuned from it. Europe has the least number of cases and no deaths so far (Britian has 6 and even faraway NZ has one), but for how long can this situation remain is left to be seen. Not only must the government be resolute in implementing WHO measures but the people must be disciplined enough to adhere to set rules to ensure that there is no leakage. With people breaking quarantine orders and going about infecting others, there will be no end to the problem, as is reported to be rampant in China!
Even Taiwan, which should have benefitted from the experience of other Sars-infected countries since Sars invaded her shores only recently, is now getting a serious case of Sars outbreak which shows no signs of abating. Sars cases have tripled to 116 in just under 2 weeks and with 2 more deaths yesterday, the death toll has swelled to 10. And the main reason is that there was rampant violation of quarantine orders.
What would have been the scenario like at Birmingham? You can't prevent badminton fanatics from the Asian countries from attending the WC. The spectator numbers may be smaller but all you need is one Sars carrier to cause untold misery to others should he succeed in infecting them. Remember, you may have excellent preventive measures in place, but human behaviour may not be ideal. Then the Sars cases in the UK may no longer be in single digit any more. In fact, even without the WC, the numbers will increase.
So, why invite trouble if you can avoid it?
Exactly, but cancelling the tournament is only one measure. There are other ways in which to tackle the problem.
If you are going to cancel because of SARS, then other sports meets should follow suit. Like was mentioned before, those larger gatherings at baseball, basketball, soccer are going to be at just as high risk.
Taiwan's quarantine measures are less that ideal. The way they did it was very draconian and unneccessary, IMHO. Just look at their information dissemination. Medical staff were throwing out messages saying "we all are going to die"! What does that tell you?
The lessons to be learnt should have been taken from the HK, S'porean and Toronto experiences.
In particular:
1) information dissemination and education is vitally important. It provides a slight degree of control to an individual (China problem)
2) knowing that health measures are in place provides additional security
3) HK and S'pore have shown quarantining individual households work, no need to quarantine whole buildings unless more than one household has been affected
4) If you are going to quarantine a houshold, you have to make up for their loss of income (canadian problem). Education on the importance of the quarantine and that running away will not help prevent the disease is vitally important (China, Taiwan and also HK partially)
5) hospital staff coming down with disease occur when there is: i) lack of knowledge, ii) lack of equipment, iii) lack of proper education within hospital staff (e.g. cleaners), iv) tiredness leading to mistakes, v) sudden increase in paitient numbers.
6) social responsibilty is important - don't go out if you are feeling ill!!
As a note, non-medical people might have the impression that nurses, doctors, etc are really clean in their work. I can tell you for a fact that before SARS came along, it is not the case. Only in specific situations..operations, infectious control wards, leukaemia wards. Otherwise, not as clean as you might expect..sorry to put the reality down in writing.
To be honest, I think the rest of the world is playing a bit of catch up to SARS, maybe 5 weeks ago I was really worried, hence my original posting in the Chitchat forum. We had much less infromation then. Most of the rest of the world was preoccupied with US foreign policy. I think the rest of the world is going through what I felt 5 weeks ago. There will be different phases of the reaction, initally fear, anger, acceptance and action....so we see the rest of the world going the fear stage. It was something that would have happened earlier for other countries if not for the conflict in the middle east.
So what if SARS originated from China. There are plenty of non-chinese in the countries that have been affected and that have returned to their own countries. These people are just as likely to spread to other people. Sorry, I just don't buy it the the WC has predominately Asian players and supporters that that should be used as justification for cancellation. That's why I recommended the health checks for ALL people.
Re: Re: Re: IBF over reacted
Soccer event, how many fans from Asia (China, HK, TW, Ma's, etc) or Canada going to travel all the way to UK to attend? However, Badminton WC, u will see huge wave of asian fans coming. U don't need everyone to carry SARS, 1 is good enough.
About the direct contact to gain SARS, how close u need? Fans are all sitting and screaming together face to face in a stadium. For the "proving patient", well. Just read an ariticle, SARS virus can stay alive outside in the air for 4 days, under certain situation. Also, the 1st several days, most patient won't really notice (not necessary high fever on teh 1st second) about. That's why it could be so dangerous. Also, what about a healthy person left to attend the event, but get virous on the way (say, air plane), etc???
"Thousands" refer to athletes, coaches, fans, officials, staff, news reporters, etc for a combination. No matter who they are, they are all HUMAN BEING, and have equal chances to be infected...
Soccer event, how many fans from Asia (China, HK, TW, Ma's, etc) or Canada going to travel all the way to UK to attend? However, Badminton WC, u will see huge wave of asian fans coming. U don't need everyone to carry SARS, 1 is good enough.
About the direct contact to gain SARS, how close u need? Fans are all sitting and screaming together face to face in a stadium. For the "proving patient", well. Just read an ariticle, SARS virus can stay alive outside in the air for 4 days, under certain situation. Also, the 1st several days, most patient won't really notice (not necessary high fever on teh 1st second) about. That's why it could be so dangerous. Also, what about a healthy person left to attend the event, but get virous on the way (say, air plane), etc???
"Thousands" refer to athletes, coaches, fans, officials, staff, news reporters, etc for a combination. No matter who they are, they are all HUMAN BEING, and have equal chances to be infected...
Re: Re: Re: Re: IBF over reacted
I am not suggesting that the people attending the WC should not be screened, e.g. taking their temperature at the entrance, ensuring everyone wears a face mask etc. You could require people from SARS affected countries to submit a doctor's certificate saying he/she has been clear of SARS for the last two weeks before departure for the WC. But to my knowledge not even the UK health authorities (or the WHO, for that matter) have such a requirement at present, so are the IBF better qualified than the relevant health departments on public health issues?
Sure, there's a theoretical risk, but there is more paranoia and fear than any actual risk in the UK at this stage. Otherwise the only thing to do is to shut down the entire system, i.e. close the borders of all the countries (including western countries like Canada) which have had SARS cases.....
This fear of SARS is quite understandable - it's just a fear of the unknown. Think of HIV/AIDS when it first appeared in the late '80s and the fear and paranoia that occurred then. People actually believed they could catch it off toilet seats! Hey, since then we've learned to live with AIDS by taking sensible precautions and with good public health education. Well, SARS is not going away anytime soon, so we will have to learn to live with it as well, the sooner the better, IMHO. As I don't fancy ever playing badminton wearing a face mask!
I am not suggesting that the people attending the WC should not be screened, e.g. taking their temperature at the entrance, ensuring everyone wears a face mask etc. You could require people from SARS affected countries to submit a doctor's certificate saying he/she has been clear of SARS for the last two weeks before departure for the WC. But to my knowledge not even the UK health authorities (or the WHO, for that matter) have such a requirement at present, so are the IBF better qualified than the relevant health departments on public health issues?
Sure, there's a theoretical risk, but there is more paranoia and fear than any actual risk in the UK at this stage. Otherwise the only thing to do is to shut down the entire system, i.e. close the borders of all the countries (including western countries like Canada) which have had SARS cases.....
This fear of SARS is quite understandable - it's just a fear of the unknown. Think of HIV/AIDS when it first appeared in the late '80s and the fear and paranoia that occurred then. People actually believed they could catch it off toilet seats! Hey, since then we've learned to live with AIDS by taking sensible precautions and with good public health education. Well, SARS is not going away anytime soon, so we will have to learn to live with it as well, the sooner the better, IMHO. As I don't fancy ever playing badminton wearing a face mask!
Colin,
I can clearly see ur point. However, SARS is very different than HIV/AIDS. HIV/AIDS needs blood contact (yeah, ppl were wrong, but at least u need contact). SARS spread out by air, even the patient might not be here at this moment, but who knows, 5 min ago, there could be one in the room, etc.
Doctor certificate and temp check surely works for a lot of cases. However, u need to know the following as well:
1. What about someone has certificate, but get this virus during travel? Say, air plane?
2. Certain new cases (even though, small percentage) been discovered, that SARS carrier might NOT have high fever for the first several days.
3. Always remember, even though with ur methods, we can eliminate most chances, but we just need ONE carrier, then, nightmare is there. That's exactly how Taiwan got into trouble. Just one person came back and got it in airplane, now, they have tons of cases everyday now.
Of course, percentage vise, the chance is not too big. But, do u want to risk thousands of lives (never have to metion when they go back to their own nations) just for a delay of event for say several months???
Sometimes, we can not deal with problem with pure math, and count for percentage. Before we can find an effective way to deal with such a life related problem, it's really not right to just throw thousands of lives from every corner of the world together.
I can clearly see ur point. However, SARS is very different than HIV/AIDS. HIV/AIDS needs blood contact (yeah, ppl were wrong, but at least u need contact). SARS spread out by air, even the patient might not be here at this moment, but who knows, 5 min ago, there could be one in the room, etc.
Doctor certificate and temp check surely works for a lot of cases. However, u need to know the following as well:
1. What about someone has certificate, but get this virus during travel? Say, air plane?
2. Certain new cases (even though, small percentage) been discovered, that SARS carrier might NOT have high fever for the first several days.
3. Always remember, even though with ur methods, we can eliminate most chances, but we just need ONE carrier, then, nightmare is there. That's exactly how Taiwan got into trouble. Just one person came back and got it in airplane, now, they have tons of cases everyday now.
Of course, percentage vise, the chance is not too big. But, do u want to risk thousands of lives (never have to metion when they go back to their own nations) just for a delay of event for say several months???
Sometimes, we can not deal with problem with pure math, and count for percentage. Before we can find an effective way to deal with such a life related problem, it's really not right to just throw thousands of lives from every corner of the world together.
LazyBuddy,
I appreciate and understand your point of view. Believe when I say I also understand the seriousness of a SARS infection - I'm a medic working in HK!!
Fortunately it looks like SARS is NOT an airborne disease like Ebola, otherwise there would be tens of thousands, if not more, people infected by now. It appears to be spread by close contact with infected patients who cough or sneeze droplets into the air. There is now evidence to suggest that it can be spread by surface contact, i.e. it can survive on surfaces and contaminate your hands which then can infect you when you rub your nose or eyes.
To respond to your points:
1. That's why all passengers, including transit passengers, must be screened before being allowed on board. The cases of infection during air travel occurred early in the outbreak when no such screening procedures were in place, and sick passengers were coughing and sneezing in the cabin. Otherwise the air in the cabin is probably cleaner than the air we normally breath (at least here in polluted HK!) as it is filtered, just like the air in an intensive care unit.
2. Good point. But then they might not be infectious during that period either....
3. The mess in Taiwan is mainly due to fear and paranoia run amok. If the people there respected and cooperated with the quarantine measures, there would be much less of a problem there now....
4. I have nothing against postponing the WC for a valid reason, but I reckon the IBF is presumptuous in thinking they know more about the health issues than the WHO or the UK health authorities who have not recommended such a step. I am justifiably concerned that SARS will be used as an excuse to discriminate against people from certain SARS affected regions - it’s already happening with a US university cancelling the courses of students and a UK school sending pupils to an island for quarantine even though there is no evidence they have ever been exposed to SARS.....
I believe in a proportionate and reasonable response to an admittedly serious and difficult health issue. Fear and paranoia will only cloud the issues that need to be aired.
Thanks for listening.
A "medic"? You're a medical doctor?
Really, it seems to me understanding of this disease is so new that new
"evidences" are discovered on a moment notice. E.g.
1. Treatment (with an antiviral drug) that showed promise in H.K. (?) during
first week of treatment actually didn't work as well as expected. Symptoms
worsen in the next 2 weeks.
2. Death rate globally is more like 15% than originally reported 5%. Who
knows if this rate statistically would grow higher above 15% or lower below
5%?
The point being that we're still in the phase of understanding the problem
and statistics gathering. If one cannot even understand what problem he
is dealing with, how can he begin to assess its seriousness?
Perhaps the world needs to do a lot more than it is already doing today.
Mandatory screening (what type, and how, BTW? Temperature again? We
probably need more definitive testing, which I think we can already do; with
result in an hour or so) for all passengers prior to entering any port of entry
in the world is probably a good way to cope. But this measure, along with
recently terrorist attacks, would make your trip to airport (or clear the airport)
more like a whole day event.
Now this would be a loophole. Are you flipping coins?
But we can't simply blame it on the people. The question is whether
there's anything we can do to control/change this. This being human
nature, perhaps quarantine measures as executed in Taiwan is not
working well. And there'd be no guarantee it would work better anywhere
else in the world either (given large enough a group of people is infected
to strain the system resources).
The key is try to be proactive, try to look ahead and see how you can avoid
getting into a desparate situation before it even arises.
Take another look at China. First it's cover-up. Then their Prime Minister
came out and said they would positively face and fight this disease. WHO,
on the other hand, announced only a few days ago cases in China (Beijin in
particular) hasn't peaked yet. Once a certain critical mass is built, it apparently
takes a lot more than will power to fight off.
Andrew Grove of Intel had a book "Only the Paranoids survive".
[/B][/QUOTE]
Your comment really puzzles me. While I don't know what UK health
authorities said, didn't WHO (and CDC in US BTW) advises people to avoid
traveling to SARS infected places? Why do you think they gave such an advice?
Common sense would seem to suggest to me that travelling in the oppositive
direction (from SARS infected places to places not affected, yet) should also be
controlled/restricted.
A lot of companies had taken the measure in restricting/canceling travel to
the SARS infected countries. And in cases travel must be done, personnels
need to go through at least 10 days of quarantine before they can go back
to work.
[/B][/QUOTE]
So you think it's still not justifiable?
Perhaps the measures that places like H.K. are taking nowaday are already
enough and effective. But I'd like to see more long term data (from statistical
sample space standpoint, I want more samples). My view is that, whether
people today is too paranoid, and whether any of these measures (quarantine,
surgical masks, washing hands) are actually effective or not, can only be
judged in hindsight.
It may be one or two years from now, everyone that survives would all look
back and laugh at himeself. But if we're complacent today, 1-2 years from
now, we could all be crying, wondering if we've a second chance to do it right
again.
This to me is common sense!
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