Choosing Lin Dan against Taufik is a safer choice than Bao. Especially when MX has 50/50 chance to win. If Indonesia win MX Bao will be very nervous. Choosing Bao over Lin can either work very well or be a total nightmare, its a big gamble. Sure Bao has good face to face with Taufik but will he be able to be mentally strong? Against such a talented player like Taufik, especially when he is in good form there is no place for errors. If Lin Dan plays like 1st set vs Sony against Taufik, he will lose for sure.
Hmmm - Stat & Probability is not my strong point - so what you are saying is if the first 3 matches are MD, MS, MXD - there is 12.5% chance of China winning - wouldn't that imply Indonesia has 87.5% chance of winning? Again probability is not my strong suite! CM
no. the other way around: Indo wins probability : 12.5% China wins probability : 87.5% assuming all 3 matches are 50/50
Taufik boleh 12.5% is still much higher than hitting lottery or "empat ekor"(4-digits), don't under estimate the underdog, Indonesia boleh!
anyway, who'll play today? and the order? what i want : ms - what everybody wants ---> taufik vs lin dan, the battle of talent, points, and................arrogance? ws - doesnt matter anyway, but better put fransisca haris md - cai/fu vs alven/luluk, but maybe they'll send candra/sigit xd - nova/lilyana vs zhang/gao wd - same as ws, maybe novita/polii(she's not bad i guess, i like her more than i like jo's real partner) yea! i agree with you han! i dont expect people to place indo high as their fave to win, but maybe we shouldnt underestimate them either
hmmm.... if LYB is "tricky" he might try to upset the il tempered taufik's mental apple cart by assigning bao to play.... this might cause mental resentment/frustration for taufik..making him a little "handicapped"..weakening somewhat a bit his current peak form.... lets see if LYB will try to play "cute".... keep in mind LYB's goal is for team China to win..not for individual ld's personal wish or glory if he pull this gambit and won...would have to call LYB the suntzu of badminton...lol
actually IMO gao/zhang didnt play their par...it was a "messy" match with BOTH side full of WILD SHOTS that lookes amateurish.... the chinese pairs even made "giveaway" lifts that were easy kills by the "confuse" korean girl..lol its just that.....female korean player played EVEN WORST than the sub par chinese pair...later korean guy got dragged down too...he was really trying to lift their/her being a handicapped..but eventually he too succumb like eriksen did in the XD semi final match with the indonesians...the girls dragged down their guys..... and definitely this is the key in XD.....these matches need a strong female player like the britons got a reliable emms for their female portion of the XD team
If he(LYB) does do this, hope it won't backfire on him as : 1. Bao could lose against Taufik and 2. Hindsight, LinDan will feel slighted, if benched for Bao, and could damage future circumstances...Of course, if LinDan plays along with a team concept it'll be a different outcome. .Sure LYB wanted a team concept and his goal is for China to win, but as we all know how a person's ego *can* surface and be slighted in this instance, esp. player like LinDan, Taufik..
SAME....BOTH bao or lindan COULD LOSE..either with bad luck or skillwise...who knows? about lindan feeling slighted? no...if you notice....ANY chinese player always THINK of China first than themselves..this value is ingrained in them... not the same as...like peter gade or taufik who is more for their personal "feeling" in comparison..not saying they dont fight for their countries...but the inner motivation level....
Bao lost to Taufik in 2003 SC in 3 sets. he won first set quite easily and then was leading by a margin in the second set, then complete mental block came in and then he lost the match. that's the problem with Bao and we have seen that numerous times. i am not convinced that he has gotten over it despite his win against KJ in TC2004.
For the MD, they could put Alven/Luluk, but I'm just thinking about their lack of experience in team events, esp. playing in the Final..Were they on the 2003 SC or 2004 TC team??.. I'm not saying Candra/Sigit *WON'T* have any jitters at all, but they've been in so many of these tournaments that IMO, they could handle them better..Imagine if Alven/Luluk have jitters and play like Fransisca yesterday in the 1st set, most likely they won't come back and win the 2nd/3rd sets, esp. against Cai/Fu.. But who knows, maybe they'll have that "loosey-goosey" attitude thus they'll play without much pressure..Plus they're younger and probably quicker than Candra/Sigit.. For XD, I just hope Nova won't feel any stage fright/fever this time...Just like he did in the recent Swiss Open when they lost to Robertson/Emms in the Finals, after leading and getting a match point in the 1st set....
and definitely this is the key in XD.....these matches need a strong female player like the britons got a reliable emms for their female portion of the XD team[/QUOTE] then left for the strength of the guys to finish the game
compromise...let taufik win his match but the chinese team won the cup..everyone go home happy what is worrisome for the chinese is that taufik is really FOCUSED to beat them here at their own home... he only need maybe just 65% of his abilities to beat peter gade.....if he is "heated" to 100%..the chinese opponent (whoever it is ) really needs LOTS and LOTS of LUCK.......
Sure, the "team/China first than themselves" value/attitude can be ingrained in the Chinese players..but in your opinion, who do you think is a "better overall" player??LinDan or Bao??..If you're LYB and this is it, do or die, your main goal is to win the S.C. who would you put in there??Would you put the #1 player or #2 player in your estimation??Would you put the "best" you've got out there for the final fight??.. But now, hindsight, what if Bao loses(and it costs China the S.C.) and then LinDan sits there on the bench and think, "darn, we lost and i should've been put in there instead. I'm a better player than Bao, why didn't LYB put me in there instead?"..Do you think LinDan will *accept* the result and decision easily??..
Just realised that Indonesia is exactly in the same predicament as Malaysia, multiplied a few fold. Against Netherlands and Japan, Malaysia had to make sure they win XD, MS, MD. One slip-up and they're gone. Same thing for Indonesia. Assuming the first two matches are XD and MS, if Indonesia loses either one or both, then it's all over.
if that scenario happened as in bao losses..i think it would even be worst on LYB than lindan himself..lol as he gambled and lost......not only lindan will blame him...but...ALL of CHINA.... lets see if he is a "strategist" or a "crowd pleaser" for me its "luck" factor left whether ld or bao can win over taufik
yes..just ONE lost match..and ITS ALL OVER for the indos.... JUST ONE..... tremendous pressure on ALL indo players...and the chinese only need one of them to succumb.... psst....hint....the crowd.....the crowd.....
if i were LYB.i would fight tooth and nail to have the MS battle as the last priority or as late as possible.. (as in the other matches ALREADY IN THE BAG..)..as it will put too much pressure if fought early.. also it will put lesser pressure on the MS chinese player.....less burden to carry and concentrate on the fight itself better have the other matches first...... if it is the first match and the chinese losses..would be hard on the rest of the chinese team pressurewise..... what i mean is...the ORDER LINE UP of the matches themselves CAN/MIGHT DECIDE the total OUTCOME at this juncture....
I think LYB is and must play to win..From all the results, I don't think he and the team are taking this tournament lightly, see all of their results:5-0,5-0,5-0 and 3-0-no losts in any of their matches... In a way, yes the pressure in on the Indos not China, depending on the format order..So even if LinDan or Bao plays and loses to Taufik,the Chinese team got other ties they can put out there and most likely take those ties...But if the Indos play hard with a "looser" and "underdog" attitude, they'll have a chance..
