You can count this way, but I think you should only count countries who play badminton competitively. (not counting Africa in ROW for ex) If you count population of China vs population of Indonesia+Malaysia+South Korea+Denmark+England ... China still is the one with most population! Of course, population is not sufficient to explain China's success, quality of coaching, infrastructures etc are important factors. But it does help explaining why "second team" players can perform so well internationally.
Another way to look at it. Imagine a school (A) has 1000 students. Another school (B) has only 100. If the top student from A goes head-to-head against his counterpart from B, the battle could be quite close. Perhaps A's top student is that little bit sharper, but you can imagine B winning. If it is a team tournament consisting of top 5 or top 10 students, top v top, second v second etc., then one will favour A higher. So, having more students probably means having strength in depth, but its top student does not neccessarily beat the other top student. Add in C, D, E and F, and each has 100 students. In an individual tournament, the chances of the top student from A winning becomes less. I guess my conclusion is, there is a certain limit a player can reach. The chances of producing a superman for a country of 1 billion and a country of 1 million is the same: zero. Due to the population, we can see these characteristics: 1. Players rarely last long. Young players push up and you are gone. These internal competition gives players a little competition edge but that does not mean they are much better than others. It is also harder to make a comeback. 2. Strong in depth. 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th players are quite strong compared to any other single nation. 3. You are not allowed to blossom late. Zhang Ning is an exception, but she managed to hang on all the while. Actually, I don't know where my point is going, so I guess I will stop now.
Agree with you hcyong, I think your analogy is interesting and explains quite well the situation. There are a few exceptions to your three last points luckily, and Xia's "comeback" at the Swiss Open is one of them!
Good point. We can see most of the CHN legends retire around 26-28, while many others from other nations do after 30. It's not like the ones from CHN are too weak to compete, actually, many of them can still perform to an acceptable standard. However, they just can't compete against their fellow younger generation any more.
During 1994 to 1998 era... Indonesia coach even proclaim they can win the thomas cup even if the rest of the world team up. If not mistaken they got like 6 out top 10 MS & 3 or 4 pair in top 10. I think that's the only time a country has been so dominat in thomas cup. MS- Heryanto arbi, Joko, hermawan, marleve, bambang MD- Rexy & ricky, candra & sigit, limpele & eng hian, tony & halim if not mistaken
The "group advantage" does not guarantee a team cup, otherwise, you will see CHN end up with Sudirman Cup every single time. Why? They always have at least 3 or 4 out of top 10 MS, 1 or 2 out of top 10 MD, maybe 4 or 5 out of top 10 in WS (because many others don't have chance to play), 4 or 5 out of top 10 in WD (same as WS), and 2 out of 10 in XD. However, the problem is, no matter how many top ones you have, you can only send ONE for the cup match for a event. The top 1 might not be that much better than the other team's top one. Of course, if there are 15 matches instead of 5 matches, of course the one with the most depth will carry the cup each time.
China send a second squad to Swiss Open and also the same players play German Open, cause Li Yong Bo want to determine who will become China Thomas and Uber squad. No wonder all the Chinese players do their best. With this result: 1. XXZ almost guarantee one spot in China Thomas Cup and if he minimal each German Open (where he will probably meet LD), it will be 100% guarantee. With this, China Thomas singles will be probably LD, BCL, CH, CJ and XXZ. 2. Sang Yang/Zheng Bo also had a good chance into Thomas squad. Not to mention they play very well n Thomas Cup 2004 where they never lost a point whenever they met any other countries double including Indonesia and Denmark.So the doubles probably will be Cai/Fu, Sang/Zheng and XieZB 3. Du/ Yu still not 100% in the Uber Cup squad cause China had 5 strong WD and they can only bring max 3 pairs. Gao/Huang and Yang/Zhang already grab the 2 spot. The remaining one spot will be determied whose pair can beat the Korean pair Lee/Lee . (In this case ZhaoTT/Zhang D already beat Lee/Lee once) In German Open, WYL/ZYW will meet Lee/Lee in QF. That are their ultimate test. 4. Zhu Lin. She already 90% grab the Uber Cup spot as China third single and will be 100% if she can reach at least German Oen QF where she will meet PHY again. (If Zhou Mi didn't make a comeback) The last spot will be fought hard against Lu Lan, Jiang Yian Jiao and Wang Lin. 5. ZhaoTT/ Zheng B. I guess China really serious preparing their XD pairs to compete in 2008 Olympic. We still don't know if Zhang/Gao can hang on till 2008. If they can't, China already got Zhang/Xie and now ZhaoTT/Zheng B. Watch out for another pair in German Open Guo ZD/Yu Yang.
Meanwhile Indonesia still didn't have a fourth MS player for Thomas Cup. So we still stuck with Taufik, Sonny and Simon. And we cannot change this formula at all. We all know Simon is a really terrible choice for third MS in team event. He never won a single point when we tied 2-2 in team event. He lost to China, Denmark and last year to Malaysian player easily in team event. So I don't know why PBSI didn't try to send more MS players after Simon Santoso. Who knows we will discover another good MS player? In Uber Cup, probably PBSI already give up. We only send 2 WS and 1 WD players to 5 or 6 events a year. How willthe third single and the second doubles perform well in Uber Cup? I am worried that we even can't qualified to final Uber Cup in Japan. Minus Japan as host and probably China as the Uber winner, we still had to fight Korea, Chinese Taipei, Singapore, Thailand , Hong Kong and now Malaysia. And from Asia zone only 4 team will make it to the main Uber Cup event. If we fail to make it to Japan, I wonder what other excuses the PBSI official will made?
I think it depends on the match-up, if Taufik moves up the ranking to face Lin Dan, the chance of Chinese winning could be very slim. The world team could get 2 or all 3 single points. Taufik vs Lin - Taufik Gade vs Bao/Chen - 50/50 Lee vs Bao/Chen - Lee
I remember that Lin is ranked 1st, Bao is 2nd. Chen Hong won several big titles last year. is the current ibf web site ready to check? Lin is kind of unbeatable, and eager to fight Taufik. It is Taufik shun away most of time when encounter is about to happen. As Gade vs Chen? I remember that both Chen Hong or Chen Jin just beat Gade recently. Correct me if I'm wrong. As for Lee, vs Bao/Chen, do you have their head-to-heads? The current IBF site is down. Anyway, I'm always surprised every time Lee won. Lee looks fragile, how he can win those points. I mean he looks smart, but not that strong enough to guarantee a win. Both Chen Hong and Bao CL look very physically fit and skills ready.
I think Bola has already mentioned about the fourth Thomas Cup singles players. Its either Markus Wijanu or Faudzi Adnan. Simon is still stuck at where he was 2 years ago and this is partly PBSI's fault! He only participated in a few tournaments last year. On the other hand, look at Chen Jin. He already has some good victories over the past year. As for the Uber Cup, Maria Kristin is the default third singles player while the second doubles could probably be a combination of Lilyana Natsir and another player. Korea should reach the final, while Indonesia, Chinese Taipei, Singapore, Thailand, HK, and Malaysia will fight for the remaining 3 spots. I am praying that the Uber Cup team has a favorable draw.
for the past few years indonesia & denmark hasnt got any promising youngster emerging for thomas cup. this trend is not good for badminton, I hope denmark can produce more young player to attract more european to badminton...
I don't know what the strategy of PBSI is. It seems that they give up for the Uber Cup. But for the Thomas Cup, it is stilla big question, who will be in the squad especially for 3rd and 4th men singles. For MD, they have several pairs which are good, but still like Luluk/Alven have to improve their techniques and especially their mentality. And for the third pairs like Markis/Hendra, this will be their first time, so it will be a hard task for them. Flandy/Eng Hian..I am not sure about that. The big problem is MS !! Taufik has a very big burden on him. Sony is still not stable yet, and he even could not beat any Chinese player recently, and against Kenneth Jonassen, still 50-50. As well against Korean Shon SM or Malaysian 2nd singles. Simon is still far away behind....lack of mentality...and experience.... So...Indonesian chance to wi back the Thomas Cup is not high, though it is possible, but China, Denmark have the bigger chance and MAlaysia, still 50-50 as well as Korean. But let see what will happen in Jaipur. First Indonesia has to prove to be qualified to Japan. For Thomas Cup, I am sure they will, but Uber Cup, not underestimate them, but the chance is 50-50. So, behind this, I think PBSI has the wrong policy when sending players abroad. They should change if they want to have a raising star again, especially MS, WS, WD. MD and XD should be more and more. I think this year Uber Cup will still remain in China (maybe not necessary to be fought ) and Thomas Cup, I still think that China will retain and maybe Denmark or Malaysia could also win that. But Indonesia, they have a chance, but they need to improve within this 4 months. Hope they manage that.
