17th Incheon AG 2014 : Day-4 (23rd September 2014) - Men's Team Final

Gao Huan could only lift and lift and wait for LHI to smash and hopefully make a mistake, what could be worse. He didn't know how to disrupt his opponent's rhythm, anticipate the net shots, vary the pace, do something different now and then to keep his opponent guessing which is what Lin Dan is particularly very good at nowadays instead of relying on speed and power more (as LD used to do in the past).
 
Interesting how only the retired players can be trusted at critical points! LD, FHF/CY, LHI. Experience counts in many important times.
 
Misty100 said:
Oldies but goodies!!! Congrats to Korea. LYB said China will sweep all 7 golds at stake!
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I'm sorry to say, LYB never said that. On the contrary, he said it'd be quite difficult and could only hope to better their previous achievements of 3 to 5 golds if possible. Even his boss didn't set any target, merely asking all of them to do their very best.
 
badrad said:
Interesting how only the retired players can be trusted at critical points! LD, FHF/CY, LHI. Experience counts in many important times.
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LD, FYF/CY are not retired. Still participating superseries tournaments . Only LH II is retired.
 
Individual MD title is out of the question for CHN with only CY/FHF and Liu/Qiu in the mix. CY/FHF would probably end their quest at the QF when they encounter Ahsan/Setiawan. Today's bitter fight to the end really took a toll on their bodies, CY appeared to show signs of fatigue more than FHF.
 
So this is my take on LYB's decision to field LD as the second MS player:

After the loss to Japan in the Thomas Cup, LYB was criticized for not fielding LD as the second MS player. Fielding LD as the second MS player at the Thomas Cup would have ensured China would get a win in the 2nd MS game.

I'm going to assume WZM and Tian Houwei are healthy. Here is where it gets interesting. LYB probably didn't feel confident that WZM and Tian Houwei could get a sure win over Korea's second MS. And after the Thomas Cup loss, LYB didn't want to be criticized for not fielding LD and wasting him on the bench. So LYB opted to field LD second this time around for the guaranteed win in the second MS match, and lost the opportunity to use WZM and Tian Houwei.

Ironically, what he didn't consider was the strength of Japan's MS and Korea's MS. Japan MS >>> Korea MS. Lee Dong Keun is ranked 34 and IMO, is nowhere as strong as Kento Momota. It's conceivable that Kento Momota could beat Du Pengyu at the Thomas Cup, so LYB should have fielded LD second at the Thomas Cup. LYB had too much faith in Du Pengyu's ability.

In this Asia games, LYB didn't have enough faith in WZM or Tian Houwei. WZM is ranked 6th now. I think WZM isn't a guaranteed win over Lee Dong Keun, but I would put WZM at 70% to 80% likelihood to beat Lee Dong Keun, even though Lee Dong Keun is on home soil.

LYB should have considered Hao Guan almost a sure loss against LHI. LHI is probably the second best singles player on the Korean national team, even though his ranking says otherwise (just like LD is probably still the best player for China even though his ranking says otherwise). Everything went against LYB's plan when Chen Long lost.

The funny thing is, LD's ranking should have been higher but he lost to Jan O' Jorgensen at the Japan Open. Korea can send a thank you card to Jan O' Jorgensen for knocking LD out at the Japan Open and keeping LD's ranking lower.
 
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So it is the "old guards" who demonstrated their resilience and saved face for both sides.

First it was LD who kept CHN going, but it was not enough and the burden fell on MD2 FHF and CY who duly delivered against the two young Kims from KOR to keep CHN alive till the last match.

Those who know would have picked veteran LHI, although at 34, to win against 10-years-younger GH.

And sure enough, LHI did not disappoint as he became the hero for KOR on home soil when he became the last man to capture the team gold medal for his compatriots, seemingly against all odds.

Kudos to the veterans on both sides! :)

What a thrilling finish to this team event! :cool:
 
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Incidentally, both Liu Xin and Tian Houwei remain untested, even if they are selected to represent CHN again next time, there's little by way of experience to call upon, so really not sure if they can do the job.
 
Such a great final. Going over the full distance. And in the end it is not China winning the Team gold.

Sons win was the confidence boost. Lee/Yoo could resist the pressure of playing a scratched pair. Lin Dan on the other hand also showed why he is the god of Badminton. Even though he didn´t start well in the first set... The Kim/Kim combo was beaten by the "oldies" Cai/Fu. I was a bit suprised, but Kims didn´t get it together in the end of the second game and they concentration was gone when the shuttle may hit Fu´s shirt before going over...
But Lee Hyun Il will be so happy that he accepted the invitation (or however his inclusion worked) to play for the team.

And all matches have been thrillers. Atmosphere was there, rallies have been great. Such a good a final imho.
 
Thanks for good analysis!

LYB is good at politics, but not mathematics. It's clear that the winning probability for
==>Wang ZM against Lee DK
is much much greater than
==>Gao Huan against Lee HI

Even though Lee HI's ranking points lower than Gao Huan, if per tournaments, Lee HI has more ranking points than Gao Huan.
galaxyduo said:
So this is my take on LYB's decision to field LD as the second MS player:

After the loss to Japan in the Thomas Cup, LYB was criticized for not fielding LD as the second MS player. Fielding LD as the second MS player at the Thomas Cup would have ensured China would get a win in the 2nd MS game.

I'm going to assume WZM and Tian Houwei are healthy. Here is where it gets interesting. LYB probably didn't feel confident that WZM and Tian Houwei could get a sure win over Korea's second MS. And after the Thomas Cup loss, LYB didn't want to be criticized for not fielding LD and wasting him on the bench. So LYB opted to field LD second this time around for the guaranteed win in the second MS match, and lost the opportunity to use WZM and Tian Houwei.

Ironically, what he didn't consider was the strength of Japan's MS and Korea's MS. Japan MS >>> Korea MS. Lee Dong Keun is ranked 34 and IMO, is nowhere as strong as Kento Momota. It's conceivable that Kento Momota could beat Du Pengyu at the Thomas Cup, so LYB should have fielded LD second at the Thomas Cup. LYB had too much faith in Du Pengyu's ability.

In this Asia games, LYB didn't have enough faith in WZM or Tian Houwei. WZM is ranked 6th now. I think WZM isn't a guaranteed win over Lee Dong Keun, but I would put WZM at 70% to 80% likelihood to beat Lee Dong Keun, even though Lee Dong Keun is on home soil.

LYB should have considered Hao Guan almost a sure loss against LHI. LHI is probably the second best singles player on the Korean national team, even though his ranking says otherwise (just like LD is probably still the best player for China even though his ranking says otherwise). Everything went against LYB's plan when Chen Long lost.

The funny thing is, LD's ranking should have been higher but he lost to Jan O' Jorgensen at the Japan Open. Korea can send a thank you card to Jan O' Jorgensen for knocking LD out at the Japan Open and keeping LD's ranking lower.
Click to expand...
 
2cents said:
Thanks for good analysis!

LYB is good at politics, but not mathematics. It's clear that the winning probability for
==>Wang ZM against Lee DK
is much much greater than
==>Gao Huan against Lee HI

Even though Lee HI's ranking points lower than Gao Huan, if per tournaments, Lee HI has more ranking points than Gao Huan.
Click to expand...

According to the display, LH II can beat any player except LCW and lin dan. May be because his body wont cooperate. I dont even understand why they selected gao huan. He is not at all comparable to LH II. If wang zhenming would have had played 2 nd singles and lin dan 3rd singles, china would have won it.
 
By the way, here are the h2h:

Lin Dan vs Lee DK 0:0
Gao Huan vs Lee HI 0:0

if fielded this way:

Wang ZM vs Lee DK 3:0
Lin Dan vs Lee HI 14:3

The huge advantage is obvious!

2cents said:
Thanks for good analysis!

LYB is good at politics, but not mathematics. It's clear that the winning probability for
==>Wang ZM against Lee DK
is much much greater than
==>Gao Huan against Lee HI

Even though Lee HI's ranking points lower than Gao Huan, if per tournaments, Lee HI has more ranking points than Gao Huan.
Click to expand...
 
First,the Thomas Cup, now, the Asian Games, on both occasions Chen Long is the 'main culprit'. For the TC debacle, he made amends by clinching the world title, so for the AG fiasco, does he have to win the AG MS gold to redeem himself ? Can he achieve it? Except that this time he has either LCW or LD to contend with, not LCW alone.
 
scorpion1 said:
According to the display, LH II can beat any player except LCW and lin dan. May be because his body wont cooperate. I dont even understand why they selected gao huan. He is not at all comparable to LH II. If wang zhenming would have had played 2 nd singles and lin dan 3rd singles, china would have won it.
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The only reason is politics!

After last Olympics, LYB tried hard to kick Lin dan and Cai Yun out of the national team, anyhow both of them refused to go. Therefore their relationships are very subtle.

After China lost Thomas cup, some people blamed LYB not even have Lin Dan, Cai Yun/FHF played yet. Therefore, LYB has some pressure on that. In order to let both LD, CY/FHF play, LYB has to field LD as the 2nd single, therefore, LYB picked Gao Huan as the 3rd, had to skip Wang Zhengmin, Du Pengyu, Tian Houwei, and optionally skip Chen Yuekun, Xue Song, all of them ranked higher than Gao Huan.
 
I too tend to agree that CHN fielding Tian HW, or Wang ZM for that matter, against Lee Dong Keun and letting Lin Dan handle Lee Hyun Il would have been better, by how much we're unsure though the statistical analysis of the relevant H2H is quite clear. Still it's all only theoretical and with the benefit of hindsight.

About using mathematics in human affairs or social science, it's always a big, almost insurmountable problem in the sense that human beings are seldom as rational as they claim to be but more emotional and in life there are factors known and unknown that create much uncertainty,volatility and unpredictability. Just ask any honest economist, social scientist or psychologist (or econometrist or say stockbroker if you like) and they will admit as much.

Actually LYB has made a number of brave,insightful decisions in bringing in Lin Dan, Fu Haifeng and Cai Yun as well as forming the scratch pair of Xu Chen and Zhang Nan. It's just that he might not have expected Chen Long to flounder at the last hurdle to Son WH though he admitted to being prepared for CL's possible defeat to LCW. Being only human, he couldn't possibly have covered all grounds , much less control the final outcome. Luckily for the rest of the world, LYB is no god unlike Lin Dan the god of badminton.
 
scorpion1 said:
I dont even understand why they selected gao huan. He is not at all comparable to LH II. If wang zhenming would have had played 2nd singles and lin dan 3rd singles, china would have won it.
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Because LD was played as the second singles, LYB had to forfeit WZM and Tian Houwei who are ranked higher than LD. My guess is the next best player is Gao Huan. Gao Huan is probably a stronger player than Song Xue and Yukun Chen, even though Gao Huan is ranked lower than them.

Are Song Xue and Yukun Chen younger than Gao Huan? If they are younger than Gao Huan, then their ranking may be higher because China sends them to more international tournaments where they can get ranking points. But Gao Huan might be the best China has, after WZM and Tian Houwei are taken out of the equation.
 
Some good discussion in here. I will be sure to check out the games. It's nice to hear discussion, but also, let's not be too quick to judge. I hear things like, "LYB knows Politics, but not Mathematics!", or "He failed to consider...". No. The reason is because (1) you don't have all of the information, and (2) people love to be results-oriented.

Some questions, not in particular order:
1. What if LD was MS#3 and they lost before he could play? Everyone would complain.
2. What if LD specifically demanded to be MS#2 in the lineup?
3. Do you really think that LD is a cinch to beat LHII now, given they're on home soil (aka the Korea Open) and LD's current form? Going by previous matches is NOT a good metric here, given the time-frame over they were played.

Of course, the main point is that CL was not supposed to lose, and that happened. That said, going by "statistical probability" here and claiming he made a mistake is absurd, simply because there are so many other reasons that need to be taken to account. If you think that you are a better judge of who will win between X&Y over Li Yong Bo, well, I'd say the odds that is true are not in your favor.

I love WZM, but he simply isn't winning. Perhaps LYB is punishing him with the exclusion. Perhaps LYB is trying to bring Gao Huan to the next level. Looking forward to the individual tournament...
 
Why does LYB choose THW if he doesn't even use him.

WZM has beaten LDK before, and would've stood a fairly good chance to beat him at the MS2, allowing LD to play LHI at MS3. For me, LYB made a tactical error of not bringing WZM (for a 2nd time since thomas cup) and feeding GH for an easy kill. GH was nowhere near the same level.

Props to ZN and XC for putting up a good effort throughout the tournament. They played better than all the other young Chinese MD players.

Cai Yun looked better than he has in a long time, but I think still is nowhere near the level he used to be at.

Chen Long shouldn't be too hard on himself. He can't win every match. But he should study some other opponents outside of LCW. And he should get ready for the individual event.
 
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