ok, here's my thoughts: MS: for me Lin Dan is the top favourite. of course, lot of people say it's almost 50:50 against LCW, but the last years show us: if LD takes it serious, he wins. anything. everywhere. i would say 80% LD, 20% LCW, no other players can make it! (not speaking of injuries and whatsoever...) MD: anything can happen here. cai/fu may win, they may not. i would rate them a bit better than most other pairs, but edges are really really small in MD. maybe 25-30% for cai/fu (no other chinese pair in sight...). WS: wang, wang or wang. 100%. WD: 99,999% XD: for me Zhang/Zhao are favourite, xu/ma might make it, too. i would say 80% for one of these two pairs, 15% for fischer/pedersen, 5% rest...;-) so i think a lot will depend on MD and on XD to some extend.
for WS and WD, it's difficult to quantify China's chance of winning. China can enter three WS (from the best four) and China can only enter two WD. Based from those two facts, China's WS team have a better chance than the WD team of winning the gold medal. But Yu/Wang's record is amazing. Zhao/Tian's record is quite amazing too (if Zhao doesn't need to play in XD). For XD, Zhang/Zhao have two major problems. Problem No. 1: Zhao needs to play WD. Problem No. 2: Zhang is mentally/physically not strong enough; he doesn't do too well on European soil (especially against European players). For MD, it's a coin toss between Fu/Cai and JJS/LYD. My guess is we won't know who will win until the very last second. For MS, LinDan will win. LCW can't stop him (even if you disregard his shoulder injury).
yes they can MS : 55% ( LD 40%, CL 10%, CJ 5%), - LCW 30% ,others 15% WS : 100 % MD : 35 % (30 % CY/FHF, 5 % GZD/CB) LYD/JJS 30%, CM/MB 25 %, others 20% WD : 100 % XD : 40 % ( ZN/ZYL 25 %, XC/MJ 15 %), CP/JP 20 %, LN/TA 15 %, others 25 % another question, will they clean sweep MS n WS medal ?
If Wang Yihan/Wang Xin makes it to the final, then it's 100 percent for WS. I think XD goes to Towi/Natsir...have a feeling all two pairs from CHN are gonna choke badly. Their defeat to random players like Adcock/Bankier and Laybourn/Juhl are reducing my faith in XD. Just my 2cents...INA to clinch this gold in XD
for XD, it's impossible to predict. Zhang/Zhao has yet to win against Fischer/Pedersen on European soil. Also, LYD seems to do very well in XD if he doesn't has to play MD. But i think for LYD, MD is more important than XD.
Think you forgot something...ZN/ZYL and XC/MJ did not win AE12, so they avoid the jinx and so OLY12 gold is looking good and now, you say they gonna choke As for WYH-WX, if both go to final, much as I like WX to win, I bet on WYH to take the gold.
Regardless of the jinx, the Chinese pairs XD dont look solid enough to win the big titles..after looking at their recent defeats, i definitely wont place my bet on them to win unless i want a higher return . The only XD pair that has rose to the occasion to win and did it twice was Zhang Jun/Gao Ling..that combination is not as successful as Kim Dong Moon/Ra Kyung Min but they do know when to peak at the right time... After their retirement, i have yet to see one pair shine...maybe because of ridiculous players like Zheng Bo and He Hanbin. I don know what will happen. Zhang/Zhao might prove me wrong again as they won the World title in Wembley. I wont put so much faith in Xu Chen...he is all power but no brainer...doesn't take a maestro in doubles to subdue him. Feel sorry for Majin who has to partner him lmao.
I agree with jamesd20. Only the womens team have a high chance of winning. The Koreans and Taipei teams prob score the mixed doubles and mens...
there is a first time for everything. maybe sweep is this time. then ioc will restrict players to 2 max from every country just like for table tennis.
I will say another maximum 3 gold for China...with one guaranteed from WD and the other two could be any two of the four other categories.. Chinese XD and MD (only rely on Fu/Cai) have 50/50 chance of winning....and WS i am still skeptical about their ability to handle the pressure....so a clean sweep is a long shot...
For Mixed, I say they should've have kept Zheng Bo on the team. He went quiet, came out to WC in 2010 and took the title. Chen Xu is too young imo, if he played with Ma Jin, I think they can definitely take the gold at the olympics.
But only one of them needs to be able to handle it ... and they've got 3 opportunities. Saina doesn't have results lately, the German couldn't win India, even though she looked to be in great form... Mixed they might find difficult to win, but it's not like it'd be surprising if they got the gold. Korea SHOULD win the MD ... but performing on the day is not as easy as saying it LCW is still #1 in Mens singles ... Only that there're a lot of chinese flags to put down on the way WD ... is up in the air too. The chinese should win on paper, but the other countries have been getting results lately. So whilst it's a possibility that 5 golds go to China (or 8 ... ), they'll be hard put to actually make it come true. I'll be cheering for the other countries! Nothing against china, mind ... I just usually support the underdog.
I am Chinese but I'd hate to see China sweep all five, I want badminton to be a global sport, flourishing like soccer and basketball, not a regional sport American football (nobody outside of Canada and U.S. cares). Monopoly, in most instances, is a bad thing. My predictions: WS China, WD China, MS China, MD Korea, XD Denmark
A badminton preview taken from Reuters about CHN possibility to repeat success story in Wembley Arena, the same venue for last year World Championships. PREVIEW-Olympics-Badminton-China primed for golden Wembley encore By Ian Ransom July 9 | Mon Jul 9, 2012 11:30am EDT (Reuters) - Boasting a high-octane mix of raw power and technical wizardry, China is badminton's heavy metal act and will be primed to rock the Wembley Arena when they headline the Olympic tournament at the London Games. -------------------------------- Full article : http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/09/oly-badm-preview-idUSL3E8I300K20120709
I see a possibility badminton will flourish in Canada. The sad part is the players and even the coaches are not up to the standard. Otherwise they can do really well in big tournaments. USA badminton has no inch of hope to thrive. Once the Asian stereotype kicks in, there's nothing you can do about it. How many white americans do you see playing top level badminton? Back on topic, China will win maximum 3 gold and do not be surprised if they ended up with only 2 gold (one from WD and one from either MD/MS) MD is a 50/50 thing for China. WS is no longer guaranteed now for China. The Chinese first timers can choke. XD I would for sure go for INA. They are better than Danish pairs. Chinese pairs got no hope in XD grand occasion.
Really surprised by your post. I thought CHN was superb in mixed doubles with 2 pairs that are so dominant like in WD. Also WS I believe it will be hard to topple CHN. They have the numbers(player with different skills) but not necessarily a winner. So each CHN WS player will take out the other players from other countries with contrasting styles of their own making it hard for others. MS i think is about 80-90 percent secure for CHN unless Taufik, Tago can do something special at the games or if LCW can magically come out of injury to win gold. MD is a contest between Cai/FU , BoMo and 2 Korean pairs. I believe it will be 4 golds to CHN this time around, given the fact it's played at Wembley like in last year's WC where they did well, only unsure of a gold in MD which is open DEN and KOR.
If China fails to bag at least three gold medals in this event, it's ok but as long as China wins the MD (though unlikely but seems possible now that Cai-Fu has such an easy route to the Gold Medal match) Please a clean sweep is unrealistic for China but a gold medal from MD double discipline will seal China's status as the best badminton country in the world. Only one major title China has failed to captured from all the world/major tournaments it participated in and that title is the Olympic Gold Medal in Men's Double. Even if China ends up with 1 gold medal but they managed to capture it in Men's Double; I think that's the biggest accomplishment and historical moment for China. China being the first and only country to have their players bag every major title there is for badminton. Indonesia and Korea though they are a powerhouse, they still fail to capture quite a number of major titles.
Cai/Fu have had a spectacular 8 years, no doubt about it, but I disagree that the Olympic gold is the only major title they're missing. They were World Champions going into two Asian Games and failed on both occasions. They didn't take the SS Finals, either. Many do not consider it major but MD has always been strong. In 2008 and 2009, the top pairs were there, minus Cai/Fu, but then in 2010 and 2011, the top 8 were there, and Cai/Fu didn't win it. I think to talk about how good they are, the focus needs to be on how many AE titles and World titles and on the Olympic silver, not on the variety of major titles. Still, they've won all but Denmark and Malaysia Superseries titles and those are really tougher competitions anyway. That's as much variety as the Jung/Lee, who've won all but Singapore and Japan. Well, neither have won India but Jung/Lee won the Swiss as a SS, while Cai/Fu won it as a 4* GP or whatever the level was. I guess that's really off topic, though, isn't it.
Well it is an off-topic because we are not talking about how the Olympic gold medal will turn this pair into the greatest pair in the world Having said ?! The Olympic gold will mean Cai-Fu will be first and only pair to capture all WORLD major titles available to all players worldwide. When I say world title i mean; World Cup Sudirman Cup Thomas CUp World Championship Olympics To date, Lin Dan is the only person to capture all and three more players still need the Olympic gold to given full FIVE STARS Wang Yihan Fu Haifeng Cai Yun Still, winning those titles in MD doesnt mean they are the greatest because in my opinion, it's really difficult to discern the best men's double player of all time because every country has their own trump card in the open field. It's easy to judge in singles but doubles you cant never tell who is the greatest hence it depends on your personal opinion. To me, the best men's double player is beyond any doubt Tony Gunawan (Wu Junming); Why : 1) He can win the Olympics with Candra Wijaya 2) He can win two WCs representing two different countries with Haryanto and Bach respectively 3) He can help Indonesia to win the Thomas Cup with another different partner (Rexy Mainaky) TO me he is the best of the best but of course Koreans, Danish and Chinese MD fans will disagree but that's my opinion. Back to the topic, it's about China's ability to win all major titles including this elusive gold in MD Olympics. Should China/Cai-Fu bagged the gold, it doesnt mean they are the greatest but that would be a historical achievement for China and nobody will question their dominance because they have proven they are capable of winning gold in any discipline. That's more than enough.
