What is the chance for Team China?

Discussion in 'World Championships 2011' started by AlanY, Jul 28, 2011.

  1. chris-ccc

    chris-ccc Regular Member

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    .
    Shall we place you in our BC troll category too? :D:D:D
    .
     
  2. drquick

    drquick Regular Member

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    Yes you right. Even though the Singapore players are actually former China players.
    CHN female players is still very strong, although their best player the legendary Zhang Yining just announce her retirement (she rule the women table tennis in WS and WD since 1996).
     
  3. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    was it? i though it was won by the CHN B team, silly me.
     
  4. extremenanopowe

    extremenanopowe Regular Member

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    Great job by China. This will only be the pressure for them in the future. I think the future coach will hate LYB. damit.. lol. ;)
     
  5. cobalt

    cobalt Moderator

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    Of course, you do realise how lame this sounds, don't you? Especially since you followed up your first "spanner in the work" with this:
    You don't even sound too happy with the fact that Adcock/Bankier took the silver; just dismissive. Makes me wonder: you're not really from England at all, are you?
     
  6. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    oh, those are the bolts and nuts follow on.

    no, i'm not. i know chris is young, but you cant win matches by playing drops all the times after your partner played brilliantly at the net and forced half court lifts for you to finish. during the final everyone around me urged him to smash it down and he just keep doing his drops that were useless!

    is that really that important to you that where I came from?
     
  7. kwun

    kwun Administrator

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    gentlemen................................
     
  8. chris-ccc

    chris-ccc Regular Member

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    Gentlemen, please keep the noise down

    .
    Hahaha... "Gentlemen, please keep the noise down". :D:D:D

    On this note, some BCers do not know where some of our BCers are from. For example, some of our more active BCers have stated that they are from;

    * Mount Everest
    * coming to a court near you...
    * etc, etc, ......

    It's quite funny, but our regular BCers do know where they are from (from reading their posts). :D:D:D
    .
     
  9. freelast

    freelast Regular Member

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    Good calculations, only 14% chance, that's the reason may we re-assume the original chances:

    1) MS 80/20,
    2) WS 90/10,
    3) MD 85/15,
    4) WD 95/5,
    5) XD 90/10.
    Based on this assumption, the clean-sweep chance is 52%. Something happened, the chance should deserve larger than 50% chance.
     
  10. freelast

    freelast Regular Member

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    I forgot China did clean-sweep last year also. There 2 events occured in a row, the chance will be square rooted.

    1) MS sqrt(80/20) = 89 : 11,
    2) WS sqrt(90/10) = 95: 5,
    3) MD sqrt(85/15) = 92: 8,
    4) WD sqrt(95/5) = 97: 3,
    5) XD sqrt(90/10) = 95: 5,
    therefore, 1 time the clean-sweep chance is 72%. 2 times the clean-sweep in a row chance is 52%.

    Very impressive!
     
  11. chris-ccc

    chris-ccc Regular Member

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    Sounds like you are a mathematician. :):):)

    So, at the next World Championships, will it be square rooted to 4? :D:D:D
    .
     
  12. freelast

    freelast Regular Member

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    if 3 in a row, it should be a cubic root of 50%.
     
  13. chris-ccc

    chris-ccc Regular Member

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    OK, so according to the your mathematical rule, it's getting lesser and lesser chance that Team China will win all 5 events next time.

    But, according to the statistical and/or trend rule, Team China should be getting better and better chance of getting 5 titles next time. The trend is going up, not down. :D:D:D
    .
     
  14. kwun

    kwun Administrator

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  15. freelast

    freelast Regular Member

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    what you said, both ways are right, or wrong.

    China will not get less chance next time, because the next event cannot remember the previous event. I't a Markov chain.
    On the other hand, with more wins, you will assume the bigger chance, that's the validaty of your 2nd opinion.
     
  16. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    thank you, you beat me to it.
    i was just about to explain it with tossing a coin example.
     
  17. freelast

    freelast Regular Member

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    I cannot predict, or I can only predict after it's done. :) Thanks for your analysis
     
  18. OneToughBirdie

    OneToughBirdie Regular Member

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    I am going to keep this post just in case I can get someone to go with me. You lucky dude, but why MS SF and XDF, are each event charged separately?
     
  19. MilGauss

    MilGauss Regular Member

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    The above is a reflection for next year if Team CN does swept them clean. Odds on!

    On the other hand, CA/IB shall claim their gold in OG2012.:cool: Meaning, Team CN will claim all but one.:)
     
  20. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    you think i dont wanted to go to all of them?
    all badminton tickets application are selected by computer randomly as there were so many people wanted them.
    we've applied for 10 sessions alltogether and got 2, many people i knew didnt get any at all.
    yes, they are spreading the matches very thinly and charged a fortune.the 2 tickets for 1 session I got costed £220, about 330 USD and they are not even the best seats!
    but, i'm still happy
     
    #160 AlanY, Aug 16, 2011
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2011

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