the All England WS draw sounds really fishy!

Discussion in 'German Open / All England / Swiss Open 2011' started by 2cents, Mar 9, 2011.

  1. benjamin59

    benjamin59 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2009
    Messages:
    281
    Likes Received:
    0
    Occupation:
    technician
    Location:
    malaysia
    hard to say if the chinese WS go all out against one another then in the final the one who goes through may not be fresh anymore giving SN a chance to give india the first AE WS champion.
     
  2. madbad

    madbad Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2004
    Messages:
    28,303
    Likes Received:
    27
    Location:
    coming to a court near you...
    I find it "fishy" that when CHN players play each other, it looks like a training match most of the time (supporting the case for post # 21).

    Come on, the draw is made in an official capacity. The rules are there if anything untoward has happened
     
  3. Andy05

    Andy05 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2005
    Messages:
    478
    Likes Received:
    1
    Occupation:
    Badminton Geek
    Location:
    Stockton-on-Tees, UK
    China vs China matches are boring! No matter if it is MS MD XD WS WD it's always boring. They never put full effort in and the WD at the AE2010 went on soo long people just didn't care who won, everyone just wanted it to end.
    It may've been a low probability that caused the draw, but it makes me happy that the womens singles final will be a proper contest and not just a training match.
     
  4. hcyong

    hcyong Regular Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2004
    Messages:
    5,558
    Likes Received:
    104
    Occupation:
    Software Engineer
    Location:
    KL & Sg
    Like limsy said, (50%)^5 = 3.125% is more accurate since you have to remove from consideration WSX and WYH who are firmly rooted to the top and bottom halves respectively. So, technically there is a 3.125% chance that all the other 5 players are drawn to the top half.

    But let's go with your 1.5% which you correctly surmise will statistically occur about once every 64 times. When was the last time this happened? Statistically, it's about time it happens. It would be fishy if it never happens at all. A fair draw would once in a blue moon deliver such a result, whether we like it or not. (Of course, if you are going to calculate for past draws, you have to remove the players which are forced into different halves, e.g. the 3rd and 4th seeds will definitely be in different halves, just like the 1st and 2nd see for the current draw.)

    Secondly, you are using standard deviation wrongly. Even if you are using it correctly, 3 standard deviation does not mean that there is no way for the 1% event. Believe it or not, a 1% chance still means an expected occurence of once every 100 events, which is far from impossible (which actually means NOT even once in infinity occurences).

    Lastly, there are two schools of thought here.
    (1) The draw should be blind. This is an individual tournament. Technically, it's every player for herself. So, it should be random besides the usual placements for the seeds.
    (2) The draw should be manipulated to make the competition as interesting as possible, since this is better for the organisers and spectators.

    The 2nd ideology is subjective. What is interesting to one may not be interesting for another. However, with some effort, I would think a compromise can be achieved.
    I am firmly in the 1st camp. It is clean, simple and in my opinion, the most fair. Sometimes, weird results from the edge of probabilities will occur, but doesn't that make life more interesting?
     
    #24 hcyong, Mar 9, 2011
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2011
  5. hcyong

    hcyong Regular Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2004
    Messages:
    5,558
    Likes Received:
    104
    Occupation:
    Software Engineer
    Location:
    KL & Sg
    Of course, some will think there is a conspiracy to manipulate the draw and put all the Chinese into the same half. And also somehow know that Wang Yihan would withdraw - wow, that's a pretty powerful invisible hand there.

    My opinion is that there will be conspiracy theories as long as there are humans around to think them.

    (However, just because you're paranoid, does not mean you're not being followed. Keep throwing theories around and one may just be more than theory.)
     
  6. george@chongwei

    george@chongwei Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2007
    Messages:
    29,923
    Likes Received:
    3
    Location:
    MIA
    This is history:cool:..

    btw, Lu Lan's interview by badzine here:p.. looks cute though..chubby too
    [video]http://www.facebook.com/v/1904461174848%22%20type=%22application/x-shockwave-flash%22%20allowfullscreen=%22true%22%20width=%223 20%22%20height=%22240%22%3E%3C/embed%3E%3C/object%3E[/video]
     
  7. madbad

    madbad Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2004
    Messages:
    28,303
    Likes Received:
    27
    Location:
    coming to a court near you...
    That was a neat little interview. She seems almost embarrassed at the attention she is getting, but answered the questions, and came across well. Without mentioning names, LL certainly alluded to the stronger players in the top half of the draw. Yes, she could lose a few lbs :D:D
     
  8. Jonc108

    Jonc108 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2008
    Messages:
    1,772
    Likes Received:
    23
    Location:
    Badmintonshire
    strong players on one half, with weak players on the other half and guaranttee the weaker link could have on finalist seat... this is good for a sport?? sad...

    think about it, in English FA Cup, try to draw all Premier League clubs into one half and then the rest of lower rank clubs in another half, therefore the final would at least attended by one non-top flight club... is this considered good???

    the beauty of FA club is that even drawing all ranks of clubs together, there could still be lower ranked clubs upseting top flight clubs.. why?? because the lower rank clubs are never afraid of top flight club and always try to beat them by their own advancement!!! instead they are keen to meet the top flight clubs en route!!!

    now in badminton, we fans are not encouraging weaker players to make advancement to beat the mighty CHN players, but satisfied with and welcome having all weaker players facing weaker players to ensure a finalist from the weaker players??!! and claiming that this is "good for the sport"??? :confused:

    really don't understand the logic... so sad badminton sport...
     
  9. Ajaib

    Ajaib Regular Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2008
    Messages:
    2,256
    Likes Received:
    4
    Occupation:
    Berdagang
    Location:
    Indonesia tanah air beta
    i hope that today JYJ give walkover to Wang Xin,, or Vice Versa and tomorrow Wang Shixian give walkover to Wang Xin or Vice versa....
     
  10. suetyan

    suetyan Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2004
    Messages:
    8,540
    Likes Received:
    66
    Location:
    Japan/Singapore
    good good good, I agree! :D
     
  11. Ajaib

    Ajaib Regular Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2008
    Messages:
    2,256
    Likes Received:
    4
    Occupation:
    Berdagang
    Location:
    Indonesia tanah air beta
    Yes ,,, thank u :D :D
     
  12. vpsingh

    vpsingh Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 18, 2008
    Messages:
    542
    Likes Received:
    0
    Occupation:
    The IT Guy
    Location:
    Bangalore, India
    This is correct. BWF just tried to ensured that Chinese get atleast one final slot. Perhaps they feared with ditributed field, all WS would be knowcked out in first round itself.:D:D
     
  13. vpsingh

    vpsingh Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 18, 2008
    Messages:
    542
    Likes Received:
    0
    Occupation:
    The IT Guy
    Location:
    Bangalore, India
    Umm don't remember exactly how many times Chinese players have been clubbed in same half before. But just wondering if number of such instances is more than number of matches thrown away on order of team management.
    And how do you encourage weak players to play to their best - by showing them the strongest team would be fresh and ready directly onto final while you would be fighting in 4 matches to reach final.
     

Share This Page